Thunder and Nuggets remain strong contenders, while Cavaliers show inconsistency following Harden trade.
At the midpoint of the season, the discussion surrounding the favorites for the NBA Finals remains largely unchanged.
The Oklahoma City Thunder continue to be the clear frontrunners for the 2025-26 championship, with +130 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Denver Nuggets hold the position of second favorites at +450, an improvement from +200 and +650, respectively, prior to the season’s start.
Denver was a favored choice among bettors in the preseason, accumulating the highest number of bets and total money at various sportsbooks nationwide. DraftKings Sportsbook director Johnny Avello recently informed ESPN that the Nuggets have become a minor liability for the book due to the significant betting volume they have attracted since the season commenced. Their 16% handle share at the book is tied with the Thunder for the highest on the board, although the slightly longer odds present a greater risk.
David Lieberman, NBA lead at Caesars Sportsbook, noted that the reduction in the favorites’ odds has limited their ability to accumulate excessive handle.
“The lower-priced teams simply do not receive as much betting action throughout the season,” he explained to ESPN. “The liability does not build up as significantly over the course of the year. Therefore, I would say that those two teams are no longer in a major liability position for us.”
The Cleveland Cavaliers were another team initially considered contenders, starting the season tied with Denver at +650 in the preseason but falling to as long as +3000 at some sportsbooks due to a challenging start. However, after acquiring James Harden from the LA Clippers in early February, the Cavs won every game with him before the All-Star break and have returned to the third-favorite position at +1200 on DraftKings’ odds board.
Avello mentioned that the book had to adjust Cleveland’s odds due to the “quality of a player that [Harden] is,” but he and other bookmakers remain cautious about how significantly he can assist this iteration of the Cavaliers in overcoming playoff challenges, given Harden’s inconsistent postseason history.
“He will provide assistance, but the extent of that assistance is uncertain,” Lieberman stated. “However, I understand why bettors are inclined to invest when their odds were somewhat higher. On paper, they might be among the top contenders in the East, and perhaps they just required a bit of a shake-up.”
Public bettors have somewhat validated their confidence in the Harden-led Cavaliers, as they have attracted the second-highest percentage of Finals winner bets (11.9%) at BetMGM in February, only behind the San Antonio Spurs (13.1%). Cleveland has also received the highest amount of money (30.9%) to win the Eastern Conference at the sportsbook during the month.
One team that the public is genuinely supporting is the East-leading Detroit Pistons, who are fifth on DraftKings’ Finals winner odds board at +1500 and have received the second-most wagers (19%) to win the conference at the book. BetMGM indicates that the Pistons have attracted the most tickets (25.3%) to win the East in February, while theScore Bet reports they have taken the most money to win the Finals (18.6%) during a similar timeframe.
“The Pistons have been popular throughout the year and are undoubtedly a force in the East, but those top teams continue to attract betting action,” Adrian Horton, the sportsbook’s senior director of North American sports trading, stated via email.
The other leading teams in the East—the New York Knicks (+1300) and Boston Celtics (+1500)—remain popular public selections as they typically are each season, owing to their status in major markets. DraftKings reports that New York leads the Eastern Conference champion market in both bets and handle, while trailing only Oklahoma City and Denver for the most action regarding the Finals. Both the Knicks and Celtics rank among the top five for BetMGM’s February betting as well.
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Similar to the Finals market, there are few surprises at the top of the MVP odds board halfway through the NBA season, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic remaining the strong favorites at -210 and +300, respectively, according to DraftKings lines.
A significant complication for their candidacies, as has been the case in recent seasons, is the 65-game eligibility rule. Due to injuries sustained during the season, SGA has 10 games he can afford to miss and still remain eligible, while Jokic has only one. The same applies to Luka Doncic (+2000), who can miss five games, and Victor Wembanyama (+3500), who can miss three games.
Lieberman expressed some surprise at the public support Jokic received upon his return to action on January 30, given how close he is to missing the minimum. The bookmaker anticipates that one of the two favorites will be able to meet the requirement, but if neither does, the situation becomes more intriguing.
In addition to Wembanyama, Cade Cunningham (+1400) and Jaylen Brown (+5000) have garnered a reasonable amount of attention at longer odds throughout the season. The sportsbooks will be hoping for the favorites to maintain their health as the season progresses.
“Those players are somewhat concerning for us, but when you consider the two frontrunners, Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokic, we are in a favorable position,” Avello remarked.
