NBA teams are increasingly aiming for a faster pace of play — is this detrimental to their performance?

As the fall season arrives, much like intricate Halloween decorations and the transformation of foliage, the recurring theme emerges: NBA teams express a desire to increase their pace of play.

This year, the New York Knicks aimed to enhance their speed. The Orlando Magic sought to play at a quicker tempo. The Portland Trail Blazers intended to increase their pace. The Miami Heat aspired to play faster. The Memphis Grizzlies were also focused on playing more rapidly. The Chicago Bulls expressed a similar goal.

This is merely a selection of teams identified through a brief online search. It is likely that all 30 coaching staffs engaged in some dialogue regarding a faster style of play this season; after all, the NBA’s current “pace-and-space” era emphasizes pace, with a record 18 teams averaging at least 100 possessions per game. A decade ago, only two teams, including the 73-win Golden State Warriors, achieved triple-digit possessions.

“You always hope to play at a quicker pace. You desire to play faster,” Knicks coach Mike Brown stated. “We are effective when we play quickly, and we aim to continue doing so as much as possible.”

The underlying belief is that a faster pace results in improved offensive performance. However, an unexpected trend has surfaced this season: the teams with the highest pace are underperforming offensively, while the slower teams are faring better.

Among the top 10 teams in pace this season, none are positioned in the top 10 for offensive efficiency, and only two— the Atlanta Hawks and Minnesota Timberwolves— are in the top eight of their respective conferences. Three of the four teams with the weakest offenses are also among the pace leaders.

Conversely, within the bottom 10 teams in pace, five are ranked among the top 10 in offensive efficiency, and seven are in playoff contention. Three of the five most effective offenses in the league— the Boston Celtics, New York Knicks, and Charlotte Hornets— are among the slower-paced teams. Additionally, the most efficient offense, the Denver Nuggets, ranks 20th in pace, just outside the bottom 10.

On average, the 10 slowest teams have outscored the 10 fastest teams by 3.1 points per 100 possessions. This represents the largest disparity recorded in the NBA advanced stats database, which has been maintained since the 1996-97 season.

ESPN engaged with coaches, players, and front office personnel across the league to investigate the reasons behind this counterintuitive trend and its potential implications for the forthcoming playoffs.

Note: Statistics are current through games played on April 7.

Faster process, worse results

To comprehend the unexpected disconnect between pace and efficiency this season, one might surprisingly look to the realm of monetary policy and a philosophical principle known as Goodhart’s Law. Named after British economist Charles Goodhart, it asserts, “When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.”

In essence, if a team recognizes that quick shots are generally more advantageous, it may distort its offensive strategy to prioritize generating quick shots— which can, paradoxically, lead to poorer outcomes.

As Bulls coach Billy Donovan noted, “Clearly, analytically across the board, shots taken within the first seven seconds are the highest-percentage shots you can obtain. … [However] if you rush down and take quick, contested three-point attempts under pressure, you’re likely not going to achieve a favorable rating, even within the first seven seconds.”

Emphasizing a faster pace while neglecting other offensive priorities can also create challenges. When questioned about the disconnect between pace and offensive success, several coaches and players from fast-paced teams cited turnovers and a deficiency in offensive rebounds, which often accompany a rapid offensive system.

“If you analyze our shot profile, we’re generating very high-quality shots,” Donovan remarked. Indeed, the Bulls rank third in quantified shot quality, according to GeniusIQ, based on factors such as shot location and defender proximity.

“But that’s merely part of the equation,” Donovan continued. “You must also find other ways to score, right? This is why taking care of the basketball and securing rebounds becomes crucial.”

While the Bulls’ pace may assist in creating “very high-quality” shots, they rank 20th in turnover rate, 22nd in free throw rate, and 26th in offensive rebounding rate. Shooting is just one of the “Four Factors” identified by Dean Oliver as essential for success in a game, and their below-average performance in the other three factors is why Chicago stands at 24th in overall offensive efficiency.

There also seems to be a form of selection bias affecting the types of teams that have adopted a faster pace this season. “Typically, it’s what teams without elite offensive talent resort to,” remarked one Eastern Conference analyst.

Only five All-Stars emerged from teams that rank in the top 10 in pace: Miami’s Norman Powell, Atlanta’s Jalen Johnson, Portland’s Deni Avdija, Indiana’s Pascal Siakam, and Minnesota’s Anthony Edwards. Of this group, only Edwards is regarded as a top-tier superstar.

In contrast, a dozen All-Stars came from teams that rank in the bottom 10 in pace, including several top-tier superstars: Luka Doncic, LeBron James, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Devin Booker, Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, Kawhi Leonard, Kevin Durant, Jaylen Brown, and others.

In other words, superior pace cannot compensate for inferior talent. Thus, it is logical that teams playing at a faster pace would yield poorer results on the court, irrespective of the system they implement to address that talent disparity.

This imbalance explains why the correlation between pace and offensive rating this season is negative-0.42. This indicates an inverse correlation— in this case, suggesting that a faster pace is associated with poorer offensive performance. This represents the most significant negative correlation recorded in the history of these statistics.

Correlation Between Pace and Offensive Rating

Slower, starrier, superior

For teams that play at a slower pace, a more measured tempo often results from their superior talent.

“Many of the better teams do indeed have a slower pace,” LA Clippers coach Tyronn Lue stated in late January, just prior to his team trading James Harden and Ivica Zubac. “I believe this is because when you have stars or max players, the offense tends to slow down as you want to play through them and ensure they have the ball.”

One player exemplifying this is three-time MVP Nikola Jokic, and his coach concurred with this perspective. “We have a player we can rely on that enables us to be efficient, particularly in the latter stages of the shot clock,” Nuggets coach David Adelman explained. “I do believe in pace with certain rosters. Our roster is not structured that way.”

It may seem unusual for Adelman to oversee a team that isn’t operating at a breakneck speed. Growing up, he observed his father, longtime NBA coach Rick Adelman, lead fast-paced teams like Portland and the Sacramento Kings on deep playoff runs.

However, later in his father’s coaching career, he also guided a slower, more methodical roster in Houston to multiple 50-win seasons. The lesson for his son was adaptability.

“There are countless ways to achieve success,” David Adelman remarked. “Historically, reflecting on some of the teams I had the privilege to watch growing up, some played quickly, while others played at a much slower pace. … Whatever your roster consists of, aim to complement that roster. Don’t strive to be something you’re not. Utilize what you have and maximize your potential with that group.”

Coaches of slower, more successful teams also indicated that they concentrate less on overall pace and more on specific metrics of offensive tempo.

“Honestly, I’m not sure how to define pace,” Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla stated. “There are several different ways to approach it. We have our own definition based on what optimizes our players in the manner we wish to play, and how swiftly we can achieve the types of shots we want and the spacing we desire.”

For instance, one might assume that the rising Hornets are thriving due to their speed. Young teams typically play faster, and the Hornets have the NBA’s third-youngest rotation, according to Basketball Reference. However, in reality, the Hornets rank 26th in pace.

Charlotte coach Charles Lee mentioned that instead of emphasizing overall pace, he is satisfied with how his team executes selective bursts of speed. “We’re transitioning into actions quite effectively,” he noted. “[On] pick-and-rolls, we’re sprinting into them.”

This strategy is proving effective: Charlotte is emerging as a formidable playoff contender, boasting the league’s best offense since January 1 and ranking as the No. 5 unit overall.

Playoff implications

This unusual relationship between speed and efficiency holds significant implications for the upcoming postseason, where fans tuning in for the most critical games may witness a surprisingly traditional style of play.

Generally, the pace of the NBA game slows as the stakes increase. In 27 out of 28 seasons since 1996-97, the pace has decreased in the playoffs compared to the regular season. On average, the pace has dropped by 2.7 possessions per 48 minutes during the postseason.

This trend is not due to the fact that slower-paced teams typically make deep playoff runs. Instead, over 90% of the decline in postseason pace is attributed to a shift in the playoff atmosphere itself, rather than the characteristics of the teams involved.

Leaguewide Pace

However, this season, while some contenders are positioned in the middle of the pace rankings, most of the league’s top teams are on the slower side, and none of the fastest teams are regarded as top-tier contenders.

Therefore, if pace typically declines in the postseason, irrespective of team identity, and now the slower teams are more likely to participate in playoff games, the 2025-26 playoffs could see a significant reduction in pace— a return to a more traditional basketball style.

It is possible to overstate this conclusion. Even the Celtics, who currently rank last in the league in pace, still place in the top half of all teams since 1996-97.

Nonetheless, the anticipated outcome over the next two months is a shift in gameplay, with greater emphasis on half-court offense, isolation plays (which increase in frequency each year during the playoffs), and more methodical possessions than what is typical in an NBA game in 2026.

This style of play could favor the top seeds in each conference, the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Detroit Pistons, who possess the two best half-court defenses in the league. The San Antonio Spurs are similarly effective when Victor Wembanyama is on the court. (It is worth noting that the Thunder also lead the league in transition defense, according to Cleaning the Glass.)

Ironically, despite the trend of slower being more effective this season, coaches of the league’s lowest-paced teams continue to express a desire to increase their tempo— perhaps because when the game slows down, scarcity makes every easy basket more valuable.

“You don’t want to be at the bottom in anything, so there are certainly areas where we could improve regarding our pace,” Mazzulla stated.

“We aim to enhance our pace, not remain 29th,” Houston Rockets coach Ime Udoka remarked.

And prior to a game in late January, Clippers coach Lue expressed, “I would love to play faster … but our team doesn’t suit that style.” After being reminded that his team ranked No. 3 in offense since a poor start, even with a slower pace, Lue chuckled and continued with his line of thought.

“We could be No. 1 if we played faster,” Lue stated. “Because we’re exceptionally effective in transition, but we simply don’t get enough opportunities.”

Indeed, the Clippers lead the league in points per transition play, according to Cleaning the Glass— yet until the trade deadline, they ranked last in transition frequency.

It is not surprising that after the Clippers traded the more methodical Harden for the younger, quicker Darius Garland, the first topic Lue addressed was that now his team could “play differently with a faster pace.”

Conversely, Garland’s former team in Cleveland has significantly slowed down since acquiring Harden. The Cleveland Cavaliers ranked eighth in pace before Harden’s arrival but have dropped to 24th since.

However, Cleveland has improved to fourth in offensive efficiency since Harden’s debut. This tradeoff is favorable for Cavaliers coach Kenny Atkinson, who provided a fitting summary of how this unusual trend is manifesting in practice.

“Yes, we’re playing slower, but we’re still an efficient offensive team,” Atkinson stated. “It’s not as if I’m in the locker room [saying], ‘We need to return to playing fast.’ None of that. We must play to our strengths and our personnel. If it means playing a bit slower, then so be it.”