Sabalenka and Rybakina: Who will claim the Australian Open championship?
The women’s final of the Australian Open will feature world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka facing off against No. 5 Elena Rybakina on Saturday. Sabalenka has secured two titles in Melbourne, but it was Rybakina who recently triumphed over Sabalenka in their encounter at the year-end WTA Finals.
Who will emerge victorious? Our analysts provide their insights.
What strategies can Sabalenka employ to overcome Rybakina?
D’Arcy Maine: For Sabalenka, competing in her fourth consecutive final in Melbourne, the key factor will be managing her nerves.
Her performance has been outstanding throughout the tournament and the season thus far, and she enters the final with an 11-match winning streak. Additionally, Sabalenka has not lost a set in 2026. Clearly, she possesses the skills necessary to secure her fifth major title and third at the Australian Open, but she has previously faced challenges with her emotions in significant finals (refer to last year’s Australian Open and French Open) and sometimes appears to be affected by the pressure of the moment. She managed to regain her focus while contending for the trophy at the US Open last season and will need to tap into that same mental fortitude and clarity on Saturday to achieve victory.
Jake Michaels: Is it overly simplistic to suggest she should simply continue with her current approach? Perhaps. However, Sabalenka has not lost a set in six matches and is exhibiting her typical aggressive, relentless style of tennis, which has left her opponents without solutions. There has been considerable discussion regarding her temperament and composure during high-pressure situations, but it is worth noting that just days ago she became the first player in the Open era to win 20 consecutive tiebreaks. This remarkable achievement underscores her ability to alter the narrative surrounding the mental aspects of her game.
Jarryd Barca: Sabalenka’s game plan is not overly complex; the challenge lies in executing it under pressure and expectations—something she struggled with last year. As the top player in the world and a two-time champion in Melbourne, her seven major titles have all been secured on hard courts. She has won 20 of her last 21 matches here for a reason and must remember that, embrace it, and leverage it. Tactically, targeting Rybakina’s second serve and preventing her from establishing comfortable holds and short rallies will be crucial. If Sabalenka can apply early pressure and engage her opponent in exchanges where her powerful shot-making can dominate, it will enable her to play aggressively and disrupt Rybakina’s rhythm. Above all, she needs to remain true to herself and assert her presence early in the match.
What strategies can Rybakina employ to overcome Sabalenka?
Maine: No woman has recorded more victories since Wimbledon than Rybakina, and it has been impressive to witness her regain her form and confidence following various challenges on and off the court. A significant portion of her success can be attributed to her serve, which she must utilize effectively against Sabalenka. It has been inconsistent at times during this tournament—particularly against Iga Swiatek in the quarterfinals and Jessica Pegula in the semifinals—but she cannot afford such lapses against Sabalenka, who can match her powerful hitting and aggressive style. Rybakina’s first serve could prove pivotal, and she will need a high success rate in that area to secure a win.
Their last encounter in the final of the year-end tour championships in November may offer a useful reference, as Rybakina recorded 13 aces and won 72.3% of her first serves to claim the title. A similar performance will be necessary on Saturday for her to capture her second major title.
Michaels: Much of Rybakina’s success in this tournament, and in any other, relies heavily on her serve. It is one of the most formidable weapons in the women’s game today, providing her with numerous easy points throughout her career. Rybakina has delivered a tournament-high 41 aces on her way to the final, nearly double the number achieved by Sabalenka. This is not due to having played more matches, as Rybakina has also reached Saturday’s final without dropping a single set. She has won 74% of points when her first serve has been in play.
We witnessed a strategy for defeating Sabalenka in an Australian Open final 12 months ago. Big-hitting Madison Keys matched the power and aggression from the other side of the net and consistently frustrated the world No. 1.
Rybakina has all the necessary tools to replicate that success.
Barca: If anyone possesses the capability to defeat Sabalenka at this moment, it is Rybakina. She matches her in power, strikes her groundstrokes with precision, and has also yet to lose a set in this tournament. However, this success has not come without its tense moments, including a nerve-wracking second-set tiebreak against Pegula after previously holding match points. A victory for Rybakina will hinge on her serve. She has been the top server in the draw, recording more aces than anyone else, and will need to achieve a high first-serve percentage to earn free points and prevent Sabalenka from establishing a rhythm on returns. From there, it will be about variety. Mixing up her shots, altering the pace, directing Sabalenka in different directions, and disrupting her timing while choosing the right moments to attack will be essential. If Rybakina can take control of the tempo, which she is certainly capable of doing, she could prove difficult to stop.
Who will emerge victorious?
Maine: If their 2023 encounter in the Australian Open final serves as any indication, this rematch has the potential to be thrilling. As evidenced in their previous meetings, this match could genuinely go either way. While Sabalenka holds the overall series advantage, Rybakina leads their head-to-head 6-5 on hard courts and has won four of the last five encounters on that surface. Notably, in their last meeting at the 2025 WTA Finals, Rybakina triumphed over Sabalenka—the tiebreak specialist—in a tiebreak to love to secure the title.
There is no doubt that Sabalenka is eager to reclaim her title in Melbourne and has been performing like a player on a mission throughout the Australian summer, but Rybakina’s quiet determination and recent resurgence make it difficult to bet against her. Rybakina in three closely contested sets.
Michaels: Sabalenka was my initial prediction before the tournament commenced, so it would be illogical to change my stance now. That said, this final appears to be a genuine 50-50, and compelling arguments can be made for both women lifting the trophy.
It seems that experience may ultimately be the deciding factor. This marks Sabalenka’s fourth consecutive Australian Open final and her seventh consecutive final at a hard-court major. In contrast, Rybakina has not participated in a slam final since losing to Sabalenka in the 2023 decider at Melbourne Park. Since then, her best performance at a hard-court major was reaching the fourth round. Sabalenka in three tight, gripping sets.
Barca: Sabalenka deserves to be favored, but that should not come without some caution. She leads the head-to-head 8-6, has a strong history in Melbourne, and was my pick to win the tournament. However, Rybakina has always posed a threat, and that feels even more accurate now. Rybakina has won 19 of her last 20 matches dating back to late last season and has nine consecutive victories over top-10 opponents. Following up straight-set wins over Swiatek and Pegula is a significant statement, and she also holds a recent advantage after defeating Sabalenka in the WTA Finals title match. Nonetheless, there is something about Melbourne and the significance it holds for Sabalenka. History and legacy are at stake, along with the chance for redemption after losing a match she likely should have won in 2025. It’s a battle of power against power, and it has all the elements of a three-set thriller, but I will remain with the world No. 1, Sabalenka.
Source: espn.com
