Guidelines for Wagering on the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches: Top Bets, DFS Advice, and Additional Insights

Golf has been progressing positively, yet last week served as a reminder of how swiftly this sport can bring you back to reality. Therefore, I am tempering my expectations, particularly in a field that is not particularly strong, where the previous year’s champion finished at 17 under.

This tournament presents a scenario where one must analyze recent performances, comparable courses, and suitability for the course, and none of these elements seem to align. It truly is a conundrum.

I have refined my selection to players who excel at keeping the ball in play, are proficient around the greens, and minimize high scores. In situations like this, my focus shifts from potential winners to placement value.

At times, the advantage lies in recognizing when to adopt a defensive strategy, manage exposure, and safeguard the bankroll while the situation unfolds.

Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook (with ties) and subject to change.

Best bets

Christiaan Bezuidenhout: Top 30 (+118)

Full odds:

• Top 20 +168

• Top 10 +360

• Top 5 +760

• To win +4700

If PGA National favors finesse, patience, and accuracy over sheer power, then Bezuidenhout is well-suited for this challenge. He ranks among the top short-game players in the field, sitting fourth in strokes gained around the green and second in putting, supported by strong Bermuda statistics. His strength lies in his ability to sink mid-range putts and save par when he misses greens, which will be crucial here given the presence of water and the necessity for scrambling, where he ranks in the top five, along with being top 20 in bogey avoidance—two metrics that are particularly relevant at PGA National.

Off the tee, Bezuidenhout consistently finds fairways, plays strategically, and is accurate enough to provide himself with clear opportunities for birdies. This is a profile play. If his iron play is steady and his usual short game is effective, his consistency in making cuts indicates a reliable baseline. Should his putting improve, Bezuidenhout has a viable chance to score low.

Andrew Putnam: Top 40 (+144)

Full odds:

• Top 30 +255

• Top 20 +375

• Top 10 +880

• Top 5 +2050

• To win +16500

Having control, executing a solid short game, and minimizing errors can provide a pathway to success at PGA National. In his recent performances, Putnam ranks in the top 10 around the greens, top 20 in putting, and top five in both bogey avoidance and driving accuracy. This course often leads to missed greens and challenging Bermuda lies. Putnam consistently saves pars and maintains his rounds when others begin to lose strokes.

He recently finished T2 at the American Express but missed the cut at Torrey Pines. I do not consider that missed cut a negative against him, as Torrey Pines heavily favors length and elite ball striking, which is not the case at PGA National, making this a more suitable setup for Putnam.

While win equity may be ambitious, Putnam is adept at making cuts, avoiding double bogeys, and achieving solid finishes by staying in play and converting putts from inside 10 feet. He maintains control of the ball, excels around the greens, and limits damage. The outright odds are quite low, akin to a lottery ticket. Consider it coffee money rather than a significant investment.

Players to consider for Daily Fantasy

Play daily fantasy golf at DraftKings.

Both Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($8,700) and Andrew Putnam ($6,800) would also be strong options for DFS. While betting and fantasy may appear as distinct entities, they both rely on similar probabilities: course suitability, pricing discrepancies, and potential outcomes.

The concern arises with overexposure. If both players miss the cut, it results in losses in both betting and DFS. The correlated upside functions similarly to the correlated downside. If you are comfortable with that risk, it is simply part of managing your bankroll.

DFS player to fade

Nicolai Højgaard, $9,400: He was initially on my long list, but as I delved deeper, he shifted to a fade. The potential for ball striking is evident, but the supporting statistics are difficult to overlook: 91st around the green, 80th in scrambling, and 98th in fairways gained. This combination poses a risk on a narrow, penal course where missed greens and recovery shots are critical.

Analysts have noted similar concerns; his driver can be erratic, his ball striking is inconsistent, and his short game cannot be relied upon every week. When he is aggressive and the fairways are wide, the potential looks promising. However, when he is even slightly off, poor decisions and wayward drives can accumulate quickly.

If this were a driver-heavy event, I would be more inclined to support the odds and DFS pricing, but PGA National is sensitive to bogeys and emphasizes the importance of cleaning up around the greens. The potential is alluring, but this is not the right venue for him.