Guidelines for Wagering on the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Top Bets, DFS Advice, and Additional Insights

The PGA is set to take place at Pebble Beach, a course that may appear straightforward but can reveal all weaknesses. While it is shorter compared to modern courses, it offers little forgiveness. The small greens, coastal conditions, and the necessity for sharp decision-making compel players to engage in controlled aggression.

While distance is advantageous, it only matters if players can capitalize on opportunities on the greens, indicating that performance from tee to green establishes the groundwork, but putting ultimately determines success.

This week, I have included both “To win” and “To win without Scottie Scheffler.” If you choose to place bets on the outright market, I recommend the full To win option. Excluding Scheffler diminishes potential rewards, and the players I support require volatility to secure a victory. If they succeed, it will be due to their ability to make birdies and utilize distance, not because Scheffler voluntarily stepped aside. The difference in odds rarely justifies the loss of potential payout.

That being said, it’s a new week with the same approach. I favor “Top 20” bets for their consistency, but I focus only on players whose profiles genuinely support a win if everything aligns. Full odds are provided, allowing you to select your own risk level, whether you are aiming for high rewards or opting for a safer bet.

Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook (with ties) and subject to change.

Best bets

Jake Knapp: Top 20 (+114)

Full odds:

• Top 10 +270

• Top 5 +590

• To win +3800

• Winner w/o Scheffler +3100

Knapp is a player with high potential and volatility. When his timing is right, he competes effectively, but when it falters, his accuracy can be challenged. Pebble Beach rewards the attributes he possesses: power, birdies, and putting skills. Knapp is an aggressive scorer with significant upside, capable of achieving a bogey-free 64.

He ranks in the top five for driving distance and off-the-tee performance, while also being in the top 10 for putting, birdie rates, and Poa putting splits. This combination is excellent for generating scoring opportunities and converting them. With a T5 finish at Torrey, showcasing strength both off the tee and with the putter, along with a T8 at Scottsdale and solid performance at Waialae, his recent form reflects the preparation needed for Torrey.

His performance at Pebble last year was average, primarily due to poor putting. The 2026 version of Knapp presents a different scenario. I favor Top 20s, so +114 is appealing, but the true value lies in the top 10 or top five if you are willing to take on more risk. With Knapp, you either see him contend or he falls short.

Pierceson Coody: Top 20 (+152)

Full odds:

• Top 10 +365

• Top 5 +830

• To win +5700

• Winner w/o Scheffler +4600

Coody’s profile improved the more I analyzed his statistics. He is a power-forward player who fits well at Pebble Beach as a long hitter utilizing distance effectively. Coody ranks fifth in both driving distance and off-the-tee performance, consistently leading to shorter approach shots and easier scoring opportunities.

What convinced me was his overall baseline, placing sixth in tee-to-green performance and 12th in birdie rates, providing him with a margin for error. If his putting is at least average, he can remain competitive on the leaderboard.

The subtle advantage lies in his putting. While putting can fluctuate, Coody ranks second on Poa annua greens. If he performs well, his potential increases significantly. If not, his ball striking alone can still secure a top 20 finish. His recent form includes a T2 at Torrey and a T10 at Scottsdale, combined with his distance, elite tee-to-green performance, and strong Poa splits, which are ideal heading into this event.

For reference, a Top 30 bet at -102 is available but seems more defensive. His Top 20 odds are preferable for the potential to finish near the top of the leaderboard rather than just making the cut.

Players to consider for Daily Fantasy

Play daily fantasy golf at DraftKings.

Chris Gotterup, $9,000: I prefer Gotterup in fantasy over a top 20 at (-102) because he has the potential to elevate a lineup, which is beneficial for DFS upside but not as a reliable betting option.

He has secured two victories in his last three tournaments, indicating that his ceiling is substantial, though the path to success is narrow. He ranks sixth in both driving distance and off-the-tee performance, allowing him to dominate courses from tee to green, creating ample birdie opportunities. However, Pebble Beach also requires solid putting, and his Poa putting ranks 73rd with a moderate birdie rate overall. He is priced as a strong ball striker but has limited upside.

Maverick McNealy $8,800: He ranks in the top 10 for putting on Poa, as well as strokes gained at Pebble, indicating his ability to score well on this course. Strong putting combined with improving iron play provides him with a solid route to greens and birdie opportunities. The trade-off, which makes him more suitable for fantasy than for betting, is his average driving performance and occasional accuracy issues, which limit his true winning potential. McNealy relies more on his approach and putting than on power, so he is unlikely to achieve a -21 score unless he has an exceptional driving week. This is acceptable for fantasy purposes.

DFS player to fade

Michael Thorbjornsen, $8,600: He appears impressive at first glance with a T18 at Torrey and T3 at Phoenix, but caution is warranted. His profile may not be well-suited for Pebble Beach. While his driving is strong, his putting is not. He struggles on Poa, showing volatility week to week and remaining reliant on spikes in ball striking to compete. Pebble Beach punishes inconsistency. His birdie rate is adequate, but missed opportunities can quickly lead to stress on the small greens and challenging lies. His price reflects recent performances rather than a fitting profile for this course.