Guidelines for Wagering on the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Top Bets, DFS Advice, and Additional Insights

The PGA is set to take place at Pebble Beach, a course that may appear straightforward but can reveal every flaw. While it is shorter than many modern courses, it is far from forgiving. The small greens, coastal conditions, and the necessity for sharp decision-making compel players to adopt a strategy of controlled aggression.

While distance is advantageous, it only counts if players can capitalize on opportunities on the greens, indicating that performance from tee to green establishes the foundation, but putting ultimately determines success.

This week, I have included both “To win” and “To win without Scottie Scheffler.” If you choose to place bets on the outright market, I recommend the full To win option. Excluding Scheffler diminishes potential returns, and the players I am supporting require volatility to secure a victory. If they succeed, it will be due to their ability to make birdies and utilize distance, not because Scottie graciously stepped aside. The difference in odds rarely justifies the reduction in payout.

That being said, it’s a new week with the same approach. I favor “Top 20” bets for their reliability, but I focus only on players whose profiles genuinely support a win if everything aligns. Full odds are provided so you can select your preferred risk level, whether you are aiming for high rewards or opting for a safer bet.

Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook and subject to change.

Best bets

Jake Knapp: Top 20 (+114)

Full odds:

• Top 10 +270

• Top 5 +590

• To win +3800

• Winner w/o Scheffler +3100

Knapp is a player with high potential and volatility. When his timing is right, he competes effectively, but when it falters, his accuracy can be challenged. Pebble Beach rewards the attributes he possesses: power, birdies, and putting. Knapp is an aggressive scorer with significant upside, capable of achieving a bogey-free 64.

He ranks in the top five for driving distance and off-the-tee performance, while also being in the top 10 for putting, birdie rates, and Poa putting statistics. This combination is excellent for generating scoring opportunities and converting them. With a T5 finish at Torrey, showcasing strength both off the tee and with the putter, along with a T8 at Scottsdale and solid performance at Waialae, his recent form reflects the preparation needed for Torrey.

Last year’s performance at Pebble was average, primarily due to poor putting. The 2026 version of Knapp is different. I favor Top 20s, so +114 is appealing, but the value technically lies in Top 10 or Top 5 if you are willing to take on more risk. With Knapp, you either let him compete or he falls short.

Pierceson Coody: Top 20 (+152)

Full odds:

• Top 10 +365

• Top 5 +830

• To win +5700

• Winner w/o Scheffler +4600

Coody’s profile improved the more I examined his statistics. He is a power-forward player who fits well at Pebble Beach as a long hitter who leverages distance effectively. Coody ranks fifth in both driving distance and off-the-tee performance, consistently setting up shorter approach shots and easier scoring opportunities.

What convinced me was his overall baseline, ranking sixth in tee-to-green performance and 12th in birdie rates, providing him with a margin for error. If his putting is at least average, he can remain competitive on the leaderboard.

The subtle advantage lies in his putting. While putting can fluctuate, Coody ranks second on Poa annua greens. If he performs well, his potential increases significantly. If not, his ball striking alone can still help him finish within the top 20. His recent form, including a T2 at Torrey and a T10 at Scottsdale, combined with his distance and elite tee-to-green performance, along with strong Poa splits, is ideal heading into this event.

For reference, a Top 30 at -102 is an option but seems more defensive. His Top 20 odds are preferable for the potential to finish near the top of the leaderboard rather than just making a late entry.

Players to consider for Daily Fantasy

Play daily fantasy golf at DraftKings.

Chris Gotterup, $9,000: I prefer Gotterup in fantasy over a Top 20 at (-102) because he has the ability to excel and elevate a lineup, which is beneficial for DFS potential but not as a betting anchor.

He has secured two victories in his last three outings, indicating that his ceiling is substantial, although the path to success is narrow. He ranks sixth in both driving and distance, allowing him to dominate courses from tee to green, which is advantageous for birdie opportunities. However, Pebble Beach also requires strong putting, and his Poa putting ranks 73rd with a moderate birdie rate overall. He is priced as a favorite for ball striking but has limited upside.

Maverick McNealy $8,800: He ranks in the top 10 for putting on Poa, as well as strokes gained at Pebble, indicating he knows how to score on this course. Strong putting combined with improving iron play provides him with a solid route to greens and birdie opportunities. The tradeoff, which makes him more suited for fantasy than betting, is his driving performance. His driving is average, and his accuracy can fluctuate, which limits his true winning potential. McNealy relies more on his approach and putting than on power, so he is unlikely to achieve a -21 score unless he has an exceptional driving week. For fantasy purposes, this is acceptable.

DFS player to fade

Michael Thorbjornsen, $8,600: He appears impressive at first glance with a T18 at Torrey and a T3 at Phoenix, but caution is warranted. His profile may not be well-suited for Pebble Beach. While his driving is strong, his putting is not. He struggles on Poa, is inconsistent week to week, and remains reliant on spikes in ball striking to contend. Pebble Beach punishes inconsistency. His birdie rate is adequate, but missed opportunities can quickly lead to stress due to the small greens and challenging lies. His price reflects recent performances rather than suitability for the course.