Guide to wagering on the Arnold Palmer Invitational: Top betting options, DFS advice, and additional insights

Bay Hill is lengthy and challenging, with thick rough, and if your long irons are not precise, you will notice it by Saturday. The par 3s are significant, exceeding 200 yards, on a course where birdies are hard to come by. Success here relies more on precise tee shots, strong iron play, and the ability to manage missed greens.

I am focusing on well-rounded tee-to-green players who possess solid long iron statistics and sufficient short game proficiency to endure four rounds without faltering.

Here are the players who are suitable for Bay Hill.

Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook (with ties) and subject to change.

Best bets

Nicolai Højgaard: Top 20 (+148)

Full odds:

• Top 30 -108

• Top 10 +360

• Top 5 +830

• To win +5600

The version of Højgaard that struggled with cuts here in 2025 is not the same player we see today. Last season, he consistently lost strokes around the green, which is detrimental at Bay Hill where missed greens are a certainty. Over his last seven rounds, he has been neutral or positive, addressing his most significant weakness.

His ball striking is impressive, gaining strokes on approach in every tournament this year, and he continues to show positive numbers off the tee. Controlling shots and long-iron proximity is what distinguishes contenders from those who merely survive.

He ranks second in par 3 scoring and fourth on par 3s over 200 yards, which aligns well with Bay Hill’s layout. With improved scrambling and a favorable Bermuda putting split, he presents as a much more complete player than I acknowledged last week.

Højgaard is a well-rounded tee-to-green player with short-game consistency, indicating that his baseline has clearly improved. If his current form persists, he has the potential to be near the top of the leaderboard.

Ryo Hisatsune: Top 30 (+156)

Full odds:

• Top 20 +255

• Top 10 +680

• Top 5 +1700

• To win +14500

His profile for 2026 is quietly robust: gaining strokes off the tee, on approach, and around the green in weighted splits. This type of comprehensive ball striking is effective at Bay Hill, where strategic driving and long-iron accuracy are more critical than sheer distance. He is also in the Top 20 for both overall par 3 scoring and long par 3s. The area of concern is scrambling, which can be tested in strong winds or thick rough. However, his GIR rate minimizes the number of challenging recovery shots he faces. For a top 30 finish, Hisatsune simply needs to avoid a disastrous round.

Although he has not competed at Bay Hill, this is less significant for a placement market than for a top 10 or better. Bermuda is his preferred surface, making this a strategic play based on consistent tee-to-green performance rather than a temporary spike in form.

Players to consider for Daily Fantasy

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Shane Lowry, $8,600

Lowry ranks eighth in the field with his irons, 15th in greens in regulation, and is in the top 20 for par 3 scoring, all advantageous for this course. The concerns are that he is neutral off the tee, has difficulties around the green, and is slightly negative on this putting surface. Nevertheless, his iron play generates opportunities. Even if he struggles around the green this week, his GIR minimizes exposure to that weakness. The key factor is his historical success with back-to-back top 10 finishes at Bay Hill. His iron-focused profile suits the long par 3s and strategic tee shots. Thus, with Lowry, you gain a strong approach, proven course performance, high cut equity, and top 10 potential. While he may not be a perfect statistical match, his game still aligns well.

Pierceson Coody, $6,700 and Top 20 (+146)

Full odds:

• Top 10 +360

• Top 5 + 820

• To win +5300

Rather than focusing on his long-term resume, I concentrated on his recent form and noted his baseline improvement. This year, he has developed one of the strongest tee-to-green profiles in this price range: fourth off the tee, 16th on approach, with a GIR rate that ranks third in the field. He is in the top 5 for par 3 scoring, making him an appealing option, but there is volatility with the putter, which raises some caution. Overall neutral and slightly negative on Bermuda, indicating this is not a putting-driven surge. For a Top 20 finish, he likely needs neutral to slightly positive performance on these greens. However, the potential is significant, as evidenced by a T14 here and a T2 at Torrey earlier this season.

In fantasy, the value is even clearer. His tee-to-green performance provides him with cut equity and a Top 15 ceiling at a mid-tier price. You are investing in form before the market fully adjusts.

DFS player to fade

Scottie Scheffler, $14,200

The top player in the world, but the focus is on price versus the path to victory. He remains exceptional off the tee, ranking first in the field, and his short game has been sharp. The unusual aspect is that the putter is currently doing more of the heavy lifting than the irons. His approach statistics are decent but not overwhelmingly dominant, which typically distinguishes him from the competition when he wins.

At this price point, a near guaranteed top-5 finish or legitimate win potential is necessary. Anything less becomes inefficient roster construction. If his irons perform well instead of exceptionally, he shifts from being an “overwhelming favorite” to a “strong contender.”

At $14,200, this limits lineup flexibility and necessitates sacrifices in depth. This is simply a wager against a premium price.