Thrilling title contests and UEFA Champions League qualifications in the Premier League, LaLiga, Scotland, and beyond
Bayern Munich holds an 11-point advantage over Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga and is on track for a potential record point total. Inter Milan is ahead of AC Milan by seven points in Serie A. Arsenal is leading Manchester City by seven points in the Premier League (although City has a game in hand), while Barcelona is four points clear of a particularly vulnerable Real Madrid in LaLiga. PSG’s lead over Lens in Ligue 1 is just one point, but the defending European champions remain strong favorites for another title.
While there is a possibility of an exciting title race or two among these leagues, nothing is assured.
Regardless of the outcomes, one constant in soccer is its depth. Whether it’s a title challenge, vying for a European competition spot, or a classic relegation battle, there is always something to keep an eye on. With just over two months left in the 2025-26 season, we can expect numerous thrilling moments ahead.
– UCL Talking Points: English clubs face significant challenges
– Ogden: Premier League giants must secure top-four finishes
– Connelly: Evaluating the top teams in soccer currently
Here are 15 particularly compelling races to monitor. I compile a list like this every spring, and this edition has a notably English flavor.
1. Scottish Premiership title
Teams involved: Hearts, Celtic, Rangers
It feels somewhat risky to mention it, but it’s time to discuss Hearts.
When Heart of Midlothian climbed to the top of the Scottish Premiership early in the season, it was easy to dismiss it as a temporary result of the struggles faced by both Celtic and Rangers. Surely, it wouldn’t last. After all, since Sir Alex Ferguson’s Aberdeen won the title twice in the mid-1980s, no team other than Scotland’s two giants has claimed a top-division title.
Hearts last won the title in the 1959-60 season, have not finished second since 2005-06, and entered administration in 2013; they are primarily remembered for the heartbreak of the 1985-86 season when they needed only a draw against Dundee on the final matchday to secure the title but lost 2-0. They started this league season unbeaten in their first 12 matches and led at the halfway point, but Rangers have lost only one league match since appointing Danny Rohl in October, and Celtic has stabilized somewhat after their second managerial change of the season, bringing in 74-year-old Martin O’Neill as interim manager for a second time.
So, is it time for the Old Firm to reclaim dominance? Not quite! After losing two of three matches in February (including a 4-2 defeat to Rangers), Hearts have bounced back with two consecutive league victories, while Rangers and Celtic have both dropped points for two weeks in a row. Hearts continue to showcase solid defense, receiving just enough offensive support from Claudio Braga and others, and after 29 matchdays, the standings at the top of the table are as follows:
1. Hearts – 63 points, +28 goal differential
2. Celtic – 58 points, +22
3. Rangers – 57 points, +26
With four matches remaining before the league splits into two, the top six teams will face each other one more time. In other words, the battle is far from over. If you haven’t started paying attention yet, now is the time. You won’t want to miss it if Hearts manages to pull this off.
2. The final Premier League relegation slot
Teams involved: West Ham, Nottingham Forest, Tottenham Hotspur, Leeds United
play2:25Laurens: Tudor should have resigned after Atletico Madrid defeat
Gab & Juls criticize Igor Tudor’s decisions following Tottenham’s 5-2 loss to Atletico Madrid in the Champions League.
While Wolves seem determined to execute a remarkable escape act, having earned eight points from their last five league matches after only managing eight in their first 25, they remain in a 12-point deficit and are almost certain to be relegated. Burnley, on the other hand, is in a nine-point hole. However, the battle to avoid 18th place is becoming one of the most morbidly captivating races in Europe.
15. Leeds United – 31 points, -11 goal differential
16. Tottenham – 29 points, -7
17. Nottingham Forest – 28 points, -15
18. West Ham United – 28 points, -19
On paper, this contest has a clear hierarchy. Opta’s supercomputer assigns West Ham a 48.8% chance of relegation, with Forest at 25.8%, Spurs at 18.1%, and Leeds at 7.8%. However, this overlooks a remarkable upward trajectory. West Ham has lost only two of their last 11 matches across all competitions, showing impressive form under Nuno Espirito Santo in 2026.
Forest has shown signs of stabilization since hiring Vitor Pereira — their fourth manager of the season — in mid-February, defeating Fenerbahce in the Europa League knockout stage, nearly securing a point against Liverpool, and successfully earning a point against Manchester City. Continuing in the Europa League might be somewhat distracting, but their form is decent. Leeds has also been performing reasonably well, though they have been unfortunate to collect only one point from their last three Premier League matches, with their expected goals differential being nearly even in all three games.
Spurs, conversely, are exuding the worst vibes in Europe. In their last six matches across all competitions, they have been outscored 18-6. They dismissed Thomas Frank and brought in Igor Tudor as a supposed fire-fighter, but the situation has not improved. Tudor has made several predictable decisions in his four matches in charge, emphasizing toughness and defense in his lineup choices and showing a willingness to bench struggling key players. However, every move he has made, no matter how logical, has exacerbated the situation.
It may seem impossible for things to worsen after Tuesday’s Champions League collapse against Atletico Madrid, but it is astonishing that such a financially robust club has allowed matters to deteriorate to this extent, and there is no clear solution at present.
Leeds could play a significant role in this race, as they will visit both Tottenham and West Ham in May, but for now, the focus is on Spurs. They must travel to Liverpool this weekend, followed by hosting Forest in a crucial relegation six-pointer next weekend.
3. Premier League top five
Teams involved: Aston Villa, Manchester United, Chelsea, Liverpool, Brentford, Everton
With Arsenal 16 points ahead of third-place Manchester United and Manchester City nine points clear, it is reasonable to conclude that those two clubs will qualify for next year’s Champions League. (It is also reasonable to expect that England will secure a fifth spot in the Champions League, as will be discussed below.) This leaves three spots available for essentially these six teams:
3. Manchester United – 51 points, +11 goal differential
4. Aston Villa – 51 points, +5
5. Chelsea – 48 points, +19
6. Liverpool – 48 points, +9
7. Brentford – 44 points, +4
8. Everton – 43 points, +1
It should be noted that Brentford and Everton are slightly off the pace, with only a 10.9% chance and a 1.9% chance, respectively, of finishing in the top five according to the Opta supercomputer. However, even if or when the longshots fall short, one of the other four will likely do so as well. Who could it be?
There are 10 remaining head-to-head matches among the six teams mentioned, starting with Manchester United at Aston Villa (Sunday) and Everton at Chelsea (March 21). Two of the teams will also face Manchester City.
Whoever secures a top-five finish will have truly earned it.
4. The final Champions League bonus slot
Leagues involved: Germany, Spain, Portugal, Italy
Each week during European competitions, UEFA updates the season performance scores for each country; the top two countries, based on average performance per team in UEFA competitions, will earn additional Champions League spots. Here are the current top averages heading into this week:
1. England – 22.3 points per team
2. Germany – 17.6
3. Spain – 17.4
4. Italy – 17.4
5. Portugal – 16.6
England not only boasts the highest average but also has all nine of its UEFA teams still active across the three tournaments (Champions League, Europa League, Europa Conference League) for at least one more week. Even with a poor week of Champions League results, a fifth bid for the Premier League is virtually assured, but the second spot remains quite uncertain. Spain has six of eight teams still competing, Germany has five of seven, Italy has four of seven (though Bologna and Roma face each other in the Europa League, meaning only one can progress), and Portugal has three of five.
Currently, it seems that Germany and Spain have the upper hand, but every result from this point forward could prove significant.
5. Championship promotion playoff
Teams involved: Middlesbrough, Millwall, Ipswich Town, Hull City, Wrexham, Derby County, Southampton
play3:14Ryan Reynolds & Rob Mac not fans of VAR after Wrexham defeat
ESPN spoke with Wrexham F.C co-owners Ryan Reynolds and Rob Mac following their 4-2 loss to Chelsea in the FA Cup.
We thought we had everything figured out. Teams promoted to the Premier League were frequently relegated soon after, while teams dropping back into the Championship were more likely to gain promotion again quickly. The financial disparities were too significant, and inter-division parity in England seemed nonexistent.
This season, however, has taken an unexpected turn. At least one of the three promoted teams (Sunderland) is almost guaranteed to remain in the top flight, and another (Leeds) has a strong chance as well. Meanwhile, among the top six teams in the Championship currently, only one has played in the Premier League since 2017. First-place Coventry has not been in the top division since 2001, third-place Millwall hasn’t been up since 1990, when the first division was still known as the First Division (and the Premier League had yet to be established), while Wrexham has never competed in the top tier.
Coventry’s victory on Wednesday put them nine points ahead of third place, giving them solid odds of avoiding the four-team promotion playoff. However, in either direction, nine teams are within five points of the playoff with nine to ten matches left.
2. Middlesbrough – 37 games, 69 points, +22 goal differential
3. Millwall – 37 games, 68 points, +10
4. Ipswich Town – 36 games, 65 points, +26
5. Hull City – 37 games, 63 points, +6
6. Wrexham – 36 games, 57 points, +8
7. Southampton – 36 games, 54 points, +11
8. Derby County – 37 games, 54 points, +6
9. Watford – 36 games, 52 points, +4
10. Swansea – 37 games, 52 points, +0
Among last year’s relegated Premier League teams, Ipswich has bounced back from a slow start to climb to fourth; Southampton, meanwhile, has overcome various struggles and is currently on an eight-match unbeaten streak. They are now just three points shy of the top six. All teams involved are in solid form at present.
There is also a significant amount of new talent in this mix, and while Wrexham will attract considerable attention due to their unique story, there are many intriguing narratives here. Could Coventry return to the Premier League? What about Derby County, just under five years after facing severe financial issues? Millwall? Count me in.
6. Premier League title
Teams involved: Arsenal, Manchester City
play2:11Have Arsenal lost their creative spark?
Craig Burley questions Arsenal’s attacking threat following their 1-1 draw against Bayer Leverkusen in the Champions League.
Arsenal took the lead in the Premier League on October 4 with a 2-0 victory over West Ham, and the league campaign has since taken on a “Can they maintain this lead?” narrative. Manchester City’s form has fluctuated, but Arsenal has responded effectively to every challenge — their lead over City was just two points in December, which they extended back to seven in mid-January. It dropped back to two points on February 21, and now it stands at seven again (though City has a game in hand).
1. Arsenal – 30 games, 67 points, +37 goal differential
2. Manchester City – 29 games, 60 points, +32
On paper, Arsenal is the clear favorite. Opta assigns them a substantial 93.5% chance of winning the title, which is why this race does not rank among the top five. However, exactly three years ago today, they led City by five points and ultimately lost the title by five points. This Arsenal team appears different, but they must continue to prove themselves over the next two months.
7. LaLiga title
Teams involved: Barcelona, Real Madrid
A Barcelona-Real Madrid title race! How novel! The teams that have collectively won 64 Spanish titles (and 54 runner-up finishes) are once again distanced from the rest of the LaLiga field despite injuries and, in Real Madrid’s case, a widely publicized managerial change. Real Madrid briefly held the lead in February, but consecutive league losses for the Blancos allowed Barcelona to regain the advantage.
1. Barcelona – 67 points, +46 goal differential
2. Real Madrid – 63 points, +33
Barcelona is currently in excellent form and has established a slight cushion — Opta currently gives them a 79% chance of winning the title compared to Real Madrid’s 21%. However, attention is already turning to May 10, when Barcelona will host El Clasico. Both teams must face third-place Atletico on either side of the upcoming international break, so dropping points now would be detrimental.
play1:33Moreno: Valverde has elevated himself to ‘legendary status’ at Real Madrid
Alejandro Moreno reacts to Federico Valverde’s hat trick that propelled Real Madrid past Manchester City in the first leg of their Champions League matchup.
8. Ligue 1 title
