Mario Barrios vs. Ryan Garcia: Selections, forecasts, and additional details

Ryan Garcia will seek to secure his first significant world title as he faces Mario Barrios, the WBC welterweight champion, on Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas (DAZN, 5:45 p.m. ET).

Garcia (24-2, 20 KOs) has not achieved an official win since his eighth-round stoppage of Oscar Duarte in December 2023. He won a decision against Devin Haney in April 2024, but that outcome was later overturned to a no-contest after Garcia tested positive for a prohibited substance. In May, Garcia lost a unanimous decision to Rolando “Rolly” Romero.

During the match against Haney, Garcia showcased his powerful left hook, resulting in three knockdowns. This weapon, combined with his exceptional hand speed, remains Garcia’s most significant advantage at 147 pounds.

“I hear what people are saying,” Garcia stated to ESPN. “They claim I lack the skills or capability, but I’ve been a winner my entire life. I am not a loser. … I lost to Gervonta Davis and had an off night against Rolly Romero. So what?”

Garcia has openly discussed his mental health, and his conduct leading up to the Haney fight overshadowed the occasion.

However, Garcia appears to be in good condition, as he recently shared on Instagram that he is prepared for the challenge.

“Here we go again. 4 days until the world championship. Let’s go, this is for everything!” he posted.

Barrios (29-2-2, 18 KOs) will be making the fourth defense of his title. His latest victory was against Fabian Maidana in May 2024, followed by two consecutive draws against Abel Ramos in November 2024 and Manny Pacquiao last July.

Equipped with a precise jab and experience against top-tier opponents, Barrios possesses the skills to counter Garcia’s left hand and control the distance. If he can disrupt Garcia’s rhythm and push him into challenging situations, the champion’s experience may be a crucial factor.

“I give Ryan credit — he’s fast, he’s dangerous, and he’s eager,” Barrios remarked during a recent training session. “But I’ve faced tough situations before, and I know how to remain composed and break my opponents down. This fight is about demonstrating that I’m not just a champion; I’m one of the best in the world at 147.”

Will Garcia finally harness his potential and deliver the fight-altering left hook? Or will Barrios manage the distance and remind the division why he holds the title?

Former trainer and current boxing analyst Teddy Atlas, four-division champion Roy Jones Jr., former middleweight title contender Gabe Rosado, and boxing trainer Aureliano Sosa analyze how the fight might unfold and provide their insights.

Editor’s note: Content has been edited for brevity and clarity.

Roy Jones, four-division champion, inducted into the International Boxing Hall of Fame

The matchup

The hook from Garcia is crucial. If Barrios can withstand Garcia’s hook, he stands a good chance of winning. Conversely, if Garcia can inflict damage, his chances of victory increase. However, I favor Barrios based on recent performances. He gained valuable experience against [Manny] Pacquiao in a fight I believed could have gone either way, but he emerged with the advantage. I hope that will instill the confidence he needs. Nevertheless, Ryan is an exceptional fighter, particularly with his left hook. I’m uncertain about the development of his right hand, but the left hook is a potent weapon that can end fights. If he can connect with Barrios early, he has a chance. If not, Barrios should prevail.

How does Garcia win this fight?

He must hurt Barrios early and utilize both hands.

How does Barrios win this fight?

Barrios needs to apply pressure on Ryan. He must not allow Ryan to settle in. Utilizing the straight right hand or a jab followed by a right hand is essential. He must keep his right hand up to protect against the hook. Anticipate the hook and walk him down with the right hand positioned by the side of his head. Don’t worry about it. Just walk him down and compel him to throw it as often as possible so you can predict when it will come. If you allow him to dictate the pace, you won’t see it coming. If he surprises you, he can hurt you. You need to force him to throw it when you want him to.

Who wins?

I would likely lean toward Barrios, but it’s a challenging decision.

Gabe Rosado, former middleweight world title challenger

The matchup

I believe the fight will go the distance. Ultimately, it hinges on which version of Ryan Garcia shows up. That’s the key factor.

I appreciate the matchup. I think Barrios could secure a victory with a solid strategy utilizing a jab. Additionally, he has [trainer Joe] Goossen in his corner, who has previously trained Ryan and understands his strengths. This could be advantageous for Barrios. I have confidence in Barrios’ chances, but Ryan possesses that power and speed, which could pose a challenge. However, if Ryan is not fully prepared, I would favor Barrios. It all comes down to which Ryan we will see. It’s unpredictable.

How does Garcia win this fight?

Ryan needs to revert to the tactics he employed when he defeated [Oscar] Duarte. He was targeting the body, throwing combinations, and utilizing the jab. Ryan must return to that approach to overcome Barrios. If he relies solely on landing that one counter shot [the left hook], Barrios could outwork him with jabs and combinations. Ryan cannot afford to throw single punches while trying to set up that big shot. He needs to throw combinations and attack the body. I can envision him stopping Barrios, but I believe the fight will go the distance.

How does Barrios win this fight?

Barrios must keep his jab active. He should maintain head movement to evade those significant counter shots from Ryan and consistently pump the jab. Ryan is a rhythm fighter, so if Barrios keeps the jab flowing and forces Ryan to reset frequently throughout the fight, he can halt Ryan’s momentum. For me, the most crucial shot for Barrios is keeping that jab busy to secure the win.

Who wins?

This is a very tough fight to call. I want to lean toward Ryan, but the uncertainty makes it difficult. That’s what makes it an intriguing matchup; you can’t predict which Ryan will show up. It’s challenging to choose Barrios since he lacks a power punch. Honestly, I can’t provide a definitive pick. It’s one of those fights.

Teddy Atlas, boxing analyst and former trainer

A look at the fighters

To me, it’s quite straightforward. There was a game show years ago called “What’s My Line?” where participants had to guess the identity of a person based on their profession. At the end, they would ask, “Will the real so-and-so please stand up?” To me, this fight is about discovering the true Ryan Garcia. I’m not sure he knows himself.

I recognize that I perceive things differently than many, but I view Garcia through the lens of my 50 years in this business. You cannot succeed in this field without understanding both the psychological and physical aspects. He is the more skilled fighter in this matchup. He is younger and fresher; Barrios is aging. If we consider only these factors, Garcia is expected to win. He has quicker hands and is more explosive.

However, as I have stated throughout my boxing career, 75% of this sport is mental. Regardless of Garcia’s physical abilities, if he is not mentally prepared, it will not matter.

Is Garcia the young star we initially believed he could be, or is he the inconsistent fighter who has delivered disappointing performances, like in his last fight [against Rolando Romero]? Who is he? We need to delve deeper.

If your role is to train fighters, you must understand how to maximize their potential and recognize what they are truly capable of. Do we genuinely know who Ryan Garcia is? I have described two versions of Ryan Garcia. Which one is he? Will the real Ryan Garcia please stand up? If he is mentally prepared, he should win this fight. He might even stop Barrios, a tough competitor, multi-time world champion, and a skilled fighter, but one who is showing signs of wear. If Garcia can be the explosive fighter we know, he has a chance to stop Barrios. However, when analyzing this fight, you must rely on what you believe, not what you wish. The fighter you know more about and can count on is Barrios.

Understanding Barrios’ game

Barrios is equipped with a long jab and is technically proficient. He will primarily use his left hand to set the pace. At some point, he will apply pressure, controlling the outside with the jab before moving forward. He will look to target the body when he deems it appropriate. You can rely on Barrios to show up and fight to the best of his abilities for as long as possible.

How does Garcia win this fight?

He should utilize his left hand, employ his jab, and aim to neutralize Barrios’ jab. When an opponent relies on their jab, what should you do? Counter with right hands over their jab. Barrios sometimes provides opportunities for that. While we often associate Ryan with left hooks, he can punch effectively with either hand.

There are two effective methods to counter an opponent’s jab. One is to use your own jab, and the other is to counter with right hands to instill hesitation. These are two solid starting points.

Additionally, when facing an older fighter, one of the first things to decline is their mobility. Therefore, you should make him use his legs. Set traps, utilize your jab, control the outside, and try to induce him to reach. Barrios has been known to reach with right hands to the body. If he does, you can set up the left hook. Create traps, counters, and opportunities. It all begins with the left hand.

How does Barrios win this fight?

He must avoid getting hit by significant punches. He should not walk into left hooks. To win, he must not expose himself to counters or traps. He should not reach with the right hand to the body, risking a left hook counter. He must throw the jab assertively and avoid being caught with powerful shots that could hurt him. That’s the key.

Who wins?

I believe Garcia will win. If he arrives mentally unprepared, Barrios could be more consistent, deliberate, and reliable, which might be sufficient. His experience and dependability could carry him through. However, if Garcia is somewhat mentally prepared, I think he will win. I believe Garcia has the potential to hurt Barrios.

Aureliano Sosa, trainer to Jarrell “Big Baby” Miller, Chris Colbert, Reshat Mati

The matchup

I consider it a 50/50 fight. Barrios is a highly resilient fighter. He has faced numerous experienced opponents and demonstrated that he can compete at that level. On the other hand, Ryan is a young, unpredictable, powerful fighter. When he is at his best, he is extremely dangerous.

How does Barrios win this fight?

He must remain composed. He needs to keep his hands up, particularly the right hand. The right hand should stay close to his cheek because Ryan has a tendency to feint, causing many fighters to drop their guard. They fall for the feint, and he often sneaks in that left hook when they drop their right hand. Therefore, Barrios must be disciplined in keeping his right hand tight and apply constant pressure, while also being a bit rough.

How does Garcia win this fight?

I have known Ryan since he was around 10 years old, and he is an exceptionally talented fighter. If he is focused and mentally prepared, he is a tough opponent to beat. He possesses speed and significant power, and if he connects, it could be the end. However, the most critical aspect for Ryan is his mental state. If he is mentally right, he is a formidable contender.

Who wins?

This will be an exciting fight, but I have to side with Ryan. I have a strong feeling that Barrios will not maintain his right hand’s guard and may get caught by that hook.