NBA title hopefuls: Key vulnerabilities of leading playoff squads
The NBA playoffs are just two weeks away, and the postseason landscape is becoming clearer.
In the Eastern Conference, the Detroit Pistons have already secured a playoff spot, aiming for the top seed in the conference. Meanwhile, in the Western Conference, Victor Wembanyama has achieved his first playoff berth with the San Antonio Spurs, while the Oklahoma City Thunder, currently ahead of the Spurs, are looking to defend their title as NBA champions.
Will the Thunder be the obstacle for San Antonio in their quest for a Finals appearance? Ultimately, this will hinge on the matchups each team faces in the series. Despite playoff hopefuls rising above their conference rivals, every team has vulnerabilities that could lead to their downfall in the postseason.
Our analysts assessed the primary weaknesses of the top 10 NBA Finals contenders—bench performance, 3-point shooting, and more—and analyzed their potential impact on a lengthy playoff journey. ESPN analyst Zach Kram then identified the opponent best positioned to take advantage of these weaknesses.
(Note: Each team’s playoff probabilities are based on ESPN’s Basketball Power Index.)
Jump to a team:
East: BOS | CLE | DET | NYK
West: DEN | HOU | LAL | MIN | OKC | SAS
Eastern Conference
No. 1: Detroit Pistons (clinched playoff berth)
Chance to make the East semifinals: 77.6%
Chance to make the Finals: 30.6%
Kryptonite: 3-point shooting
It cannot be overlooked: 3-point shooting is a significant factor in today’s NBA, and the Pistons lack sufficient capability in this area. Despite Malik Beasley and Tim Hardaway Jr. attempting to stretch the floor last season, they ranked in the lower third of the league in 3-point shooting. Currently, they sit 29th in attempts and 28th in makes. Their strategy heavily relies on defense generating offense and Cade Cunningham’s skill in half-court situations, making it evident that the three other contenders (Knicks, Celtics, and Hornets) in the East are all among the top 10 in makes.
Can Kevin Huerter adapt enough to make an impact? Will Duncan Robinson find his rhythm to create open shots? The Pistons have navigated this season with an awareness of their shortcomings, but the months of May and June may present a different challenge. — Vincent Goodwill
Opponent to avoid: Boston Celtics and New York Knicks
Both the Celtics and Knicks feature top-five defenses designed to limit scoring in the paint while allowing opponents to shoot from deep. They lead all playoff teams in the rate of opponents’ 3-point attempts, with 45% of the shots they concede coming from long range. However, if the Pistons’ roster prevents them from capitalizing on the opportunities that Boston and New York naturally provide, a series against either Eastern Conference rival could be challenging for Detroit’s offense. — Zach Kram
No. 2: Boston Celtics
Chance to make the East semifinals: 72%
Chance to make the Finals: 17.4%
Kryptonite: Fast-break scoring
Considering the well-known fact that the pace of the game tends to slow down in the playoffs, fast-break scoring is a critical area of concern. The Celtics rank last in fast-break points per game (11.4), and they will be relying on Jayson Tatum’s return to alleviate some offensive challenges. Tatum’s performance has been inconsistent, but it has been promising to see him contribute shortly after recovering from an Achilles injury. Boston will also be leaning on its significant playoff experience in the East as an advantage. — Tim Bontemps
Opponent to avoid: Detroit Pistons
If the Celtics struggle to score in transition, they will need to optimize their half-court opportunities. However, the Pistons could complicate this, as they possess the best half-court defense in the East, according to Cleaning the Glass; only the Thunder have a superior half-court defense. Whether the Pistons’ wings can effectively defend Tatum and Jaylen Brown throughout a full series remains uncertain—all four matchups between the teams occurred prior to Tatum’s return—but they would at least force Boston to work hard for every possession. — Kram
No. 3: New York Knicks
Chance to make the East semifinals: 75.7%
Chance to make the Finals: 20.7%
Kryptonite: Bench scoring
It’s striking to compare the minutes of the Knicks’ starters to last season: Only Jalen Brunson is close to his previous average of 35 minutes per game. However, due to coach Mike Brown’s reliance on the starters, New York’s bench is contributing only 31.2 points per game, ranking 28th in the league.
Mikal Bridges is experiencing a prolonged slump. Karl-Anthony Towns is under constant scrutiny. Off the bench, Landry Shamet has shown flashes (39% from 3), Jordan Clarkson has been inconsistent, and Mitchell Robinson is not a reliable scoring option. Miles McBride is recovering from hernia surgery and may be available for the playoffs, but who can Brown truly rely on for additional offensive support? — Goodwill
Opponent to avoid: Miami Heat
There are two reasons the Heat are particularly well-equipped to exploit New York’s bench scoring deficiency. First, Miami leads all teams with a winning record in bench scoring, averaging 42.9 points per game, meaning the Heat—led by Sixth Man of the Year candidate Jaime Jaquez Jr.—could overwhelm New York’s bench units. Second, the Heat play at the fastest pace in the NBA, which could lead to increased fatigue among the Knicks’ starters and necessitate Brown to rely more on his weaker bench than usual. — Kram
No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers
Chance to make the East semifinals: 77.8%
Chance to make the Finals: 20.8%
Kryptonite: 3-point defense
Cleveland has allowed opponents to shoot 40.9% on corner 3s, ranking third-worst in the NBA. When the Cavs were eliminated by the Pacers in last season’s conference semifinals, Indiana shot 42.6% from beyond the arc in that series, indicating that allowing opponents to shoot comfortably from 3 has been a recurring issue for Cleveland. With a defense centered around two rim protectors, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, the Cavs are committed to protecting the paint, which inevitably leads to conceding 3-point attempts. However, they have recognized that the frequency with which they are being scored on from long range is not sustainable for playoff success.
The Cavs will be relying on their acquisitions from the trade deadline to make an impact. While James Harden received significant attention, Cleveland also brought in Keon Ellis and Dennis Schroder off the bench, replacing some of their weaker perimeter defenders from earlier in the season. This has improved the Cavs’ 3-point defense, as opponents have shot 36% since February 5, ranking 16th. — Jamal Collier
Opponent to avoid: Charlotte Hornets
Cleveland has generally performed well against Charlotte this season, holding a 3-1 record, with the only loss occurring in overtime during a game Mobley missed. However, Hornets rookie Kon Knueppel leads the league in 3-point makes, and as a team, the Hornets rank first in 3-pointers attempted (16.2 per game) and third in 3-point shooting percentage (38%); since January 1, they have led both categories. Their proficiency from long range could stretch Cleveland’s defense to its limits. — Kram
Western Conference
No. 1: Oklahoma City Thunder (clinched playoff berth)
Chance to make the West semifinals: 91.8%
Chance to make the Finals: 55.3%
Kryptonite: Corner 3s
Even the top defense in the league must concede certain aspects in the modern NBA, where offenses are more efficient than ever. The Thunder focus on forcing their opponents into crowded situations, which is a key reason Oklahoma City ranks second in forced turnovers (16.9 per game), having led the league in this category last season. This strategy does come at the cost of allowing opponents to take a high volume of 3-point shots. Opponents average 14.3 made 3-pointers per game against OKC; only the Utah Jazz and Milwaukee Bucks allow more. A significant portion of these are the most efficient shots in basketball: The Thunder give up a league-high 4.6 made corner 3s per game. — Tim MacMahon
Opponent to avoid: San Antonio Spurs
As if the Spurs weren’t already viewed as a major threat to Oklahoma City’s chances of repeating—having won four of five regular-season matchups against the Thunder—they are also well-equipped to exploit this Thunder vulnerability. The Spurs lead the league in corner 3 attempts, averaging 12.4 per game, making 39% of those attempts. Among individual players, Harrison Barnes ranks second in total corner 3 attempts, Julian Champagnie is fourth, and Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson are both in the top 25.
In fact, the Spurs were somewhat unlucky in their five encounters with Oklahoma City: they attempted 13.2 corner 3s per game but converted only 31.8%. They can expect to improve on those numbers in a potential conference finals matchup. — Kram
No. 2: San Antonio Spurs (clinched playoff berth)
Chance to make the West semifinals: 82.9%
Chance to make the Finals: 26.4%
Kryptonite: Inability to finish games
San Antonio often starts strong, having led by 15 points or more in 59% of their games, resulting in a record of 38-4 in those situations. However, it is noteworthy that the Spurs have lost 13 games in which they held a lead of 10 points or more, tying them with the Nuggets for the fourth-most such losses in the NBA, indicating a struggle to close out games. This is typical for a young team lacking playoff experience as they embark on their first postseason since 2019. Spurs coach Mitch Johnson has frequently emphasized the need for his team to maintain “poise and composure” while avoiding the “hesitancy” that sometimes prevents San Antonio from finishing off opponents when they are vulnerable. — Michael C. Wright
Opponent to avoid: Los Angeles Lakers
If the Spurs have difficulty closing out games, it follows that they would want to steer clear of the NBA’s top clutch team. The Lakers’ 22-7 record in clutch situations may not be entirely predictive—clutch performance can often be erratic and influenced by small sample sizes—but with Luka Doncic, Austin Reaves, and LeBron James, the Lakers possess the isolation scorers and offensive capabilities to consistently win close contests. Should the Spurs face the Lakers in the second round, they will need to maintain their lead throughout each game, rather than easing off and allowing Doncic and others a chance in the closing moments. — Kram
No. 3: Los Angeles Lakers
Chance to make the West semifinals: 58.2%
Chance to make the Finals: 4.1%
Kryptonite: Rim protection
Scouting reports indicate that no player on the Lakers’ roster averages even a single blocked shot per game this season, leading to little apprehension for teams attacking the rim against Los Angeles. The Lakers allow opponents to shoot 61.3% in the paint, ranking 29th in the league, according to GeniusIQ.
The primary responsibility for preventing easy baskets falls on centers Deandre Ayton and Jaxson Hayes. Austin Reaves has labeled Ayton, the No. 1 pick in 2018, as the Lakers’ X factor, while Hayes—a 7-footer who participated in the dunk contest during All-Star weekend—certainly possesses the physical attributes to succeed. However, the issue extends beyond the Lakers’ interior defense. It is also essential for the Lakers’ perimeter players—whether Marcus Smart and Reaves or LeBron James and Luka Doncic—to establish an initial barrier at the point of attack. When an offensive player bypasses the defense, allowing them to gain momentum toward the paint, it can neutralize even the most effective shot blockers. — Dave McMenamin
Opponent to avoid: Minnesota Timberwolves and San Antonio Spurs
The Lakers boast the league’s highest field goal percentage in the paint, but they cannot face themselves. However, they can encounter the Timberwolves, who rank second with a 60.5% shooting percentage in the paint, and they can also face the Spurs, who are third at 60.4%. The Timberwolves triumphed over the Lakers in the playoffs last year, and they may aim to replicate that success this spring with their aggressive approach to the basket. Additionally, the Spurs and Victor Wembanyama could pose a significant challenge in the paint if the Lakers meet San Antonio in the second round. — Kram
No. 4: Houston Rockets
Chance to make the West semifinals: 34.5%
Chance to make the Finals: 1.3%
Kryptonite: Turnovers
Houston appeared to accept earlier in the season that turnovers might be an inevitable consequence of lacking a true point guard due to Fred VanVleet’s season-ending injury. The responsibility has fallen on high-usage players Kevin Durant and Alperen Sengun to run the offense. Sengun and Durant rank eighth and tenth in the NBA in turnovers per game (3.3 and 3.2, respectively). As a team, the Rockets average 15.7 turnovers, tied for the fourth-worst in the league. Opponents have capitalized on these mistakes, scoring 19.1 points per game off turnovers, ranking sixth in the league. Houston has lost six consecutive games this season in overtime, holding a 1-7 record in such situations, with turnovers frequently being a decisive factor. — Wright
Opponent to avoid: Oklahoma City Thunder
With a plethora of perimeter defenders, the Thunder rank second in the NBA in opponent turnover percentage (only behind Detroit) and lead the league by scoring 22.3 points per game off turnovers. This presents a significant challenge for a team that does not utilize a true point guard. The Rockets thrive on their offensive rebounding ability, allowing them to control the possession battle, but excessive turnovers could shift that advantage to Oklahoma City. — Kram
No. 5: Denver Nuggets
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