NBA MVP straw poll: The emergence of SGA and Wemby in a distinct category

Since February 1, the San Antonio Spurs have achieved 27 victories in 29 contests, positioning themselves in contention for the NBA’s top record.

Consequently, 22-year-old sensation Victor Wembanyama has emerged as a frontrunner in the NBA’s Most Valuable Player conversation, with the potential to become the first player to secure the award in his third season since Derrick Rose accomplished it 15 years ago.

However, will the Spurs’ 7-foot-4 center truly compete with Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who could become the 14th player in league history to win consecutive MVP awards and the 16th to achieve the honor at least twice?

As per ESPN’s final NBA MVP straw poll for the 2025-26 season, Wembanyama’s late-season surge is projected to fall just short.

In a survey of 100 NBA media members conducted from Monday to Wednesday, Gilgeous-Alexander tops the ballot with only 10 days remaining in the regular season. The 27-year-old guard’s clutch performances have enabled the defending champions to navigate injuries within their roster and maintain a lead over the Spurs.

Despite Wembanyama’s recent strong performances, Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic’s exceptional play and Los Angeles Lakers guard Luka Doncic’s impressive month of 600 points—the first since Michael Jordan in 1987—Gilgeous-Alexander remains comfortably ahead. SGA secured the top position on 88 out of 100 ballots, along with nine second-place and three third-place votes, totaling 958 points, 300 points ahead of Wembanyama.

Those curious about why this contest isn’t tighter can refer to Monday night. Wembanyama delivered an outstanding performance, scoring 41 points, hitting three 3-pointers, grabbing 16 rebounds, and blocking three shots as San Antonio dominated the Chicago Bulls.

A few hours later, Gilgeous-Alexander netted 47 points in Oklahoma City’s overtime victory against the Eastern Conference-leading Detroit Pistons. Following the game, Gilgeous-Alexander was asked if he wished to engage in the ongoing MVP discussions.

“No, I’m good. Thanks for asking, though,” he responded to ESPN’s Tim MacMahon. “Yeah, I’m good. I let my game do the talking.”

Gilgeous-Alexander, who has led five consecutive straw polls since the middle of last season, is enjoying another remarkable campaign. He is averaging 31.6 points on 55.3% shooting, along with 4.4 rebounds, 6.1 assists, and 1.4 steals.

He is accomplishing all this while leading the Thunder to the best record in the NBA for a second consecutive season, despite key players frequently entering and exiting the lineup. The most notable among them is All-Star Jalen Williams, who has participated in only 30 games this season due to offseason wrist surgery and a hamstring strain sustained in January.

Nonetheless, Wembanyama’s candidacy cannot be overlooked, nor can San Antonio’s remarkable team performance over the past few months.

Wembanyama, who did not meet the 65-game requirement for 2024-25 awards eligibility, is expected to avoid similar issues this time and is posting impressive statistics of his own—averaging 24.5 points, 11.4 rebounds, 3.1 assists, and a league-leading 3.1 blocks.

He is also quite vocal about advocating for the league’s top individual accolade.

“I have thought about it,” Wembanyama told reporters last week. “I think right now, there is a debate. There should be, even though I believe I should lead the race. I’m striving to ensure that at the end of the season, there is no debate.”

Unless circumstances change, however, Wembanyama may have to wait until next year to potentially join Jordan, Hakeem Olajuwon, and Giannis Antetokounmpo as the only players to win both Defensive Player of the Year and Most Valuable Player in the same season.

Jokic, who received three first-place votes and appeared on 99 of 100 ballots, finished outside the top two for the first time since December 2022, a testament to his remarkable durability and consistency. However, his historic per-game averages—27.7 points (eighth in the NBA), 13.0 rebounds (first), and 10.8 assists (first)—have slightly declined since the 31-year-old center returned from a bone bruise in his knee prior to the All-Star break. Denver has also fallen behind the Lakers in the Western Conference standings.

Jokic managed to surpass fourth-place Doncic, who was included on 96 of 100 ballots. Doncic leads the league with 33.8 points per game, along with 7.1 rebounds, 8.3 assists, and 1.7 steals, while guiding the Lakers to a 15-2 record in March. Doncic’s chances in the official MVP voting were impacted Thursday night when he left the game against OKC due to a left hamstring injury. With 64 games played, Doncic would become ineligible for MVP and All-NBA if he misses the Lakers’ final five regular-season games. (Minnesota Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards, who received one fifth-place vote in ESPN’s straw poll, is now out of contention after missing Thursday’s game due to a right knee injury.)

It is also crucial to mention that voters were instructed to exclude Detroit Pistons All-Star guard Cade Cunningham from their ballots after the collapsed lung he suffered last month likely concluded his regular season at 61 games played.

The consensus among the 100 media members surveyed was that Cunningham would have ranked anywhere from third to fifth, likely affecting the vote totals for both Jokic and Doncic but not significantly altering the dynamics of the race between Gilgeous-Alexander and Wembanyama.

Bonus! Where does the Rookie of the Year race stand?

With a competitive Rookie of the Year race throughout the season involving a pair of former Duke roommates—Dallas Mavericks forward Cooper Flagg and Charlotte Hornets guard Kon Knueppel—we also opted to poll voters on how that race might unfold.

And, similar to the MVP race, there is a distinct leader.

It is Knueppel, the No. 4 pick from last June, who holds a significant advantage with 10 days remaining in the regular season, securing 80 first-place votes compared to Flagg’s 20.

Philadelphia 76ers guard VJ Edgecombe, the No. 3 pick, garnered two second-place votes along with 94 third-place votes. San Antonio Spurs guard Dylan Harper, the No. 2 pick, received five third-place votes, while New Orleans Pelicans big man Derik Queen earned the final third-place vote.

For anyone to surpass No. 1 pick Flagg, a potential generational talent on track to become the fourth rookie since the NBA-ABA merger in 1976 to average at least 20.0 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 4.0 assists, joining Doncic, Jordan, and Larry Bird—it would require an extraordinary turn of events.

Enter Knueppel, who has not only established the NBA rookie record for 3-pointers made in a season but is currently leading the league in 3-pointers with a shooting percentage of 43.1% from beyond the arc.

These impressive statistics have been pivotal to Charlotte’s resurgence; the Hornets began the season 16-28 but have won 24 of their last 32 games to move into the upper half of the Eastern Conference play-in picture.

Although team success rarely influences the Rookie of the Year race, the combination of Knueppel’s performance and Charlotte’s achievements—along with Flagg’s Mavericks competing for another high draft pick—has shifted the race decisively in Knueppel’s favor with only a few regular-season games remaining.