NBA insights: Spurs championship discussions increase among executives, coaches, and scouts.

The Oklahoma City Thunder wrapped up their longest road trip of the season — five games over 10 days — with a defeat against the Boston Celtics on Wednesday night. This marked the Thunder’s first loss in a month, yet the defending champions returned home with only a two-game advantage at the top of the Western Conference.

This is due to the San Antonio Spurs, who also secured a victory on Wednesday night, boasting an impressive 23-2 record since February 1, placing them closely behind Oklahoma City — and they hold the tiebreaker with a 4-1 advantage in the season series. Despite their own remarkable 15-2 record since the All-Star break, the Thunder are unable to create separation, highlighting one of the key questions being posed by coaches, scouts, executives, and players:

Can a squad composed of players in their twenties and a coach in his first full season at the helm surprise the league?

This goes beyond merely surpassing OKC in the standings or even clinching the conference finals. League insiders are speculating whether Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs can achieve what would be one of the most astonishing titles in history, a feat that would defy the league’s entire narrative.

Jump to intel:
Spurs will cause ‘full-on nightmares’
Expansion, tanking, more from BOG
Injury storylines dominate East race

Why Wemby and the Spurs are changing perceptions

Brian Windhorst: I was dining before a game last week and watching the Spurs on TV with a seasoned Eastern Conference scout. We observed Wembanyama block a shot at one end and then sprint down the court to finish the play with a dunk.

“They’re my favorites now,” the scout remarked to ESPN. “I’ve been contemplating this a lot. His performance will be even more dominant in the playoffs, and with each game, he will increasingly invade your thoughts. In Game 1, your players will be mindful of him during their shots. By Game 4, they’ll be experiencing full-on nightmares.”

The scout’s perspective is not unique. We continued to inquire around the league regarding the Spurs’ prospects — and consistently found supporters.

Tim Bontemps: And rightly so. Numerous sources I spoke with this week commended the Spurs — beyond the evident nightly brilliance Wembanyama brings.

“They’re a very strong team,” an executive whose team recently faced San Antonio stated. “They’re exceptionally well-coached. Their roster is well-constructed. The combination of players they have is impressive.

“And Victor is truly unguardable.”

Windhorst: The notion of inexperience is a common refrain often heard during the playoffs. However, it is indeed significant. Responding to the fluctuations, grasping the level of preparation required, and managing fatigue from a lengthy series are attributes that cannot be replicated during an 82-game regular season. But…

“Everyone claims they lack experience, but they possess more than most give them credit for,” one Eastern executive commented regarding the Spurs. “Harrison Barnes and Luke Kornet have championship rings. De’Aaron Fox is among the league’s top clutch players and has playoff experience.

“Do you think Victor will be daunted by the moment? Good luck with that.”

play1:52JWill on Wemby’s MVP case: He’s bringing old-school basketball to 2026

Tim MacMahon and Jay Williams discuss why Victor Wembanyama is a leading candidate for MVP.

Bontemps: The experience factor is frequently mentioned because teams do not bypass steps when it comes to progressing in the NBA playoffs.

Since the NBA-ABA merger in 1976-77, only the 1977 Portland Trail Blazers and 2008 Celtics transitioned from missing the playoffs to winning the title the following season. However, both teams are not ideal comparisons, as the Celtics acquired veteran Hall of Famers Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen the previous summer, while the Blazers added another Hall of Famer, Maurice Lucas, in the offseason as part of the ABA dispersal draft.

The most fitting historical comparison for the Spurs might be the Shaquille O’Neal and Anfernee Hardaway-led Orlando Magic, who progressed from losing in the first round in 1994 to reaching the NBA Finals in 1995. Wembanyama is likely the best parallel to a young Shaq dominating the rims for the Magic three decades ago, and Dylan Harper and Stephon Castle are potential future star guards.

Yet even that team ultimately faced a sweep by Hakeem Olajuwon and the Houston Rockets in the Finals.

“History suggests it doesn’t occur this year and works against it,” a veteran scout noted. “But they’re different. [Wembanyama] is different. It contradicts all my historical beliefs, but he’s generational.”

Windhorst: Let’s take a moment to acknowledge the challenge facing the Thunder. Success in the regular season holds little weight in the playoffs. Last year, the Celtics dominated the Knicks during the regular season, but that was irrelevant when they traveled to Boston and fell behind 2-0. The Thunder have consistently shown their capacity to respond to pressure and depend on various role players to perform in playoff series. They hold a 141-37 record, including playoffs, over the past two seasons. This certainly must be taken into account.

“That’s fine, but you realize that Victor can neutralize their most significant weapon,” a Western coach remarked. “When games are tight, Shai [Gilgeous-Alexander] gets to his spot at the elbows and devastates you with his midrange jumper or draws fouls. Well, Victor possesses an 8-foot wingspan and can defend that jumper and the rim simultaneously while being far enough away that Shai cannot initiate contact with him.

“Shai claims he has the answers to the test. Well, he’s correct, but Victor defies all the rules.”

Another point that was brought to my attention:

“Suppose Denver secures the No. 4 seed,” a Western executive stated. “That’s what our internal projections indicate. What happens if that results in a seven-game [series] again? That wouldn’t be the best matchup for OKC. [The Nuggets] could exhaust them even if they manage to win again.”

Bontemps: It’s also important to highlight another potential concern. While the Spurs possess significant positional size throughout their roster, their most considerable vulnerability in the playoffs may be their lack of shooting.

Their three dynamic guards — De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, and rookie Dylan Harper — are all below average 3-point shooters. When teams enter the playoffs and have the opportunity to devise strategies against San Antonio, expect them to double off Castle, in particular, and compel him to make shots.

These are the types of challenges that, during an 82-game regular season, do not frequently arise. However, in the intensity of a playoff series, managing and overcoming those adjustments can be the difference between advancing and falling short.

What’s next after an eventful board of governors meeting?

Bontemps: This week’s gathering of team owners in New York City centered on league expansion and the influx of revenue and jobs entering the NBA. However, the most pressing issue is the 65-game rule for end-of-season awards following Detroit Pistons star Cade Cunningham’s collapsed lung, which sidelined him from the MVP and All-NBA races but is expected to have him back in time for the playoffs. (The 65-game rule does include an exception for season-ending injuries, but only if a player has played at least 62 games. Cunningham is currently at 60.)

There has been considerable discontent regarding the rule in recent days. The National Basketball Players Association, which consented to the rule when it was implemented in 2023, is preparing a counterproposal. Agent Jeff Schwartz, Cunningham’s representative from Excel Sports Management, along with some media members, have been advocating for a change to the rule.

However, something has gone unnoticed this season: The rule is functioning.

As Silver noted on Wednesday, star participation has increased following years of negative headlines about the league’s most prominent players missing games.

“I believe the 65-game rule has clearly had unintended consequences and requires reevaluation,” an Eastern executive stated. “But can we stop pretending it wasn’t collectively bargained? It effectively discourages otherwise healthy rest.”

Despite the complaints regarding the rule over the past few days, one thing appears certain: It will not be altered this summer, or anytime soon.

“What people overlook about this is that it’s about achievement,” another executive commented. “Part of that achievement is navigating the season healthily and being fortunate enough to avoid unfortunate incidents.

“I don’t think establishing a threshold of playing 80% of the games to qualify is unreasonable.”

Windhorst: Silver also clarified that there is no absolute guarantee of expansion or that the league will add teams in Seattle and Las Vegas. However, after discussions with several owners about expansion over the past six months, it is virtually assured that franchises will be introduced in both cities.

There were owners who were staunchly opposed to expansion two to three years ago who have since altered their perspectives. Why? Regardless of what anyone may claim or analyze based on the economy, global events, or the league’s popularity, the feedback the league is receiving regarding interest in expansion in the U.S. and in Europe for a forthcoming satellite league is reportedly strong. The league is informing potential stakeholders and bidders that they have groups ready to make offers from locations such as Vegas to Milan.

The league believes there is a vast amount of capital poised to enter the league, with billionaires and, in the case of Europe, sovereign wealth funds, competing to invest. Any concerns about potential downsides, such as talent dilution or increased tanking, are overshadowed by the financial gains the 30 team owners stand to receive. Silver and his team may not be infallible, but their track record in managing high-stakes financial matters is quite strong.

Bontemps: Where the league’s track record is notably poor is in lottery reform and its efforts to mitigate tanking.

Since the introduction of the original lottery system to deter tanking 41 years ago, the NBA has undergone several iterations, yet the issue of teams racing to the bottom remains a contentious topic.

Silver has attempted to address this twice. He initially failed more than a decade ago after becoming commissioner to implement lottery changes before succeeding in flattening the lottery odds ahead of the 2019 draft.

That decision has been deemed unsuccessful by sources around the league. A decade ago, four or five teams were actively engaging in tanking. Now, we see eight to ten teams annually shutting down operations after the All-Star break to enhance their lottery chances, resulting in a declining quality of play.

In private discussions, no one — whether at NBA headquarters, among fans, or within any of the 30 teams — is satisfied with the current arrangement. This is why Silver has repeatedly stated that significant changes are forthcoming to the lottery system ahead of the 2026-27 season.

However, several league and team officials, both publicly and privately, have acknowledged that there is no straightforward solution to this issue. It will be intriguing to see what emerges from the special session of the board of governors in May, when the league has indicated it will announce any modifications to prepare teams for the upcoming season.

It was notable to hear Silver state on Wednesday that he is an incrementalist and that fundamental changes to the incentive structure are necessary — and to express both of those sentiments in the same response, even mentioning potential CBA changes in the future to address the issue.

Thus, while Silver asserted that the league will “resolve this — full stop,” accomplishing that will be more challenging.

Health continues to define the East playoff race

Bontemps: While the absence of Cunningham and the ongoing recovery of Jayson Tatum (who recorded 19 points, 12 rebounds, seven assists, and three steals in Boston’s victory over Oklahoma City on Wednesday) have garnered attention, the injury updates across the conference extend beyond that.

Max Strus finally made his long-anticipated return to the Cleveland Cavaliers, providing them with an additional boost on the wing as they aim to regain full strength ahead of the postseason. The Miami Heat are working to find a way to integrate Norman Powell and Tyler Herro together after a season filled with injuries in South Florida, a process that has encountered numerous obstacles.

In Philadelphia, Paul George and Joel Embiid returned on Wednesday in a decisive home win against the Chicago Bulls. George reported that his surgically repaired knee feels excellent, and he and Embiid combined for 63 points in 54 minutes on Wednesday, albeit against a team in tank mode.

“It’s impressive that Embiid can return and, for the most part, appear as if he hasn’t missed any time,” a Western scout noted. “It highlights just how talented he is.”

Additionally, Tyrese Maxey and Kelly Oubre Jr. are expected to join them shortly.

When Maxey sustained a finger injury on March 7 that sidelined him for an extended duration, Oubre and Embiid were both out with injuries, and George was in the midst of a 25-game suspension. At that time, everyone in Philadelphia was privately resigned to the strategy of simply avoiding a drop to 10th place before the regular season concluded, hoping to have everyone back healthy for the play-in and see how things unfold.

However, the situation looks significantly different as April approaches. Due to struggles from the Magic and Heat, in particular, Philadelphia currently sits in seventh place, just one game behind fifth in the East standings.

The “if healthy” label will remain firmly attached to the Sixers roster. Nevertheless, the 76ers are confident they can compete with any team when fully intact.

“If we have our players,” one 76ers team official stated, “we like our chances.”

“They could defeat Cleveland,” the Western scout remarked. “[The Cavs] have been without Jarrett Allen, who was performing exceptionally well with James Harden, so that alters things, but they feel the most vulnerable [among the top four in the East].”

Windhorst: The Cavs are optimistic about getting Allen back this weekend after he has missed 10 games due to knee tendinitis, following Strus’s return after missing the first 67 games of the season due to a Jones fracture in his left foot. In theory, the team should finally have its intended starting lineup ready for the postseason.

The Cavs have a 14-4 record since acquiring Harden, but that figure is inflated by favorable stretches in the schedule and masks their most significant underlying issue at present, which is their defense. Since their trade deadline moves, which also included acquiring Dennis Schroder and Keon Ellis from the Sacramento Kings, the Cavs rank a disappointing 19th in defensive efficiency. They have excelled offensively, ranking third, but coach Kenny Atkinson has publicly expressed his concerns following a victory over the struggling Magic this week.

“Allen’s return will benefit them, but it’s more than that,” an Eastern scout commented. “They don’t seem to have a singular issue; various problems arise. At times, they are lax in transition defense, other times they lack physicality and fail to contest screens, and sometimes they appear sluggish in closing out on shooters.”

The Cavs possess the East’s second-easiest remaining schedule, but wins and losses are less critical than their performance as they head into the postseason with high expectations.

“I’m sure Kenny is hoping for them to establish some rhythm at full strength,” the scout noted. “They still have time.”