NBA insights: Observations from executives, coaches, and scouts during this playoff season

In the NBA, the months of March and April can often appear deceptive.

The concluding weeks of the regular season showcase top teams gearing up for the playoffs, struggling teams intentionally losing, injured star players being sidelined, and numerous unexpected scenarios emerging.

The key takeaway? The performances and narratives during this phase of the season do not always forecast the future of the league, its teams, and its players. (This could be referred to as the Malachi Flynn Principle.)

Consequently, during this time of year, coaches, scouts, and executives assess whether the on-court actions they observe are genuine. As the 2025-26 regular season approaches its final weekend, we consulted league insiders about which late-season patterns are likely to persist into the playoffs and which might change as the stakes increase.

Can the Lakers secure a series victory without Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves?

Brian Windhorst: It is crucial to note that both Doncic (hamstring) and Reaves (oblique) have been diagnosed with Grade 2 strains. Both players will certainly attempt to return in time to contribute in the first round, but these injuries are significant. It is uncertain how a soft tissue injury will feel in two weeks, so the Lakers must proceed as if Doncic and Reaves will be absent for the entire series.

The question arises: Can the Lakers win four out of seven games with 41-year-old LeBron James leading them against the Houston Rockets, their most probable opponent?

“There are tactical elements that [Lakers coach JJ Redick] and his staff are likely analyzing and testing lineup combinations,” an Eastern Conference scout informed ESPN. “However, the Lakers need LeBron to have a strong shooting series while hoping the Rockets struggle with their shooting. That scenario is feasible, and when LeBron finds his rhythm from beyond the arc, it opens up the entire game.”

“They require Marcus Smart to be fit,” a Western Conference scout stated. “He is a vital defender at the point of attack for them. They cannot afford to lose another starter, and he has been sidelined.”

Tim Bontemps: The unfortunate irony is that James, Doncic, and Reaves had finally found their rhythm—largely because James embraced a “third star” role.

“Someone always has to make sacrifices in that role,” an Eastern executive noted. “In the past, that has been Chris Bosh or Kevin Love. This time, it was him.”

Now, the Lakers will depend on James to manage lineups that lack ballhandling and shot creation. One could envision a scenario where the Lakers succeed—James gets hot, the role players make shots, and Houston falters in critical moments—but that overlooks the evident talent disparity between the two teams with Doncic and Reaves unavailable.

“Houston’s defense,” a Western executive remarked, “will simply overwhelm them.”

Windhorst: For two decades, when James’ teams have faced challenges, the reliable strategy has been to place the ball in his hands, spread the floor, and allow him to find the best shot. However, there is uncertainty about whether James, who has appeared healthy for the past four to six weeks, can still outmaneuver defenders off the dribble in half-court situations. (Much of the damage he has inflicted during the Lakers’ second-half resurgence has occurred in transition, where he remains highly effective.)

“I would love to see LeBron have a vintage series,” a second Western executive expressed. “But I worry that the teams winning the play-in might provide OKC and San Antonio with a more competitive series than the Lakers can offer Houston without AR and Luka.”

Is Boston’s supporting cast sufficient for another Finals run?

Bontemps: Much of the attention during the Celtics’ tenure as title contenders has centered on their stars: Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and also players like Derrick White, Kristaps Porzingis, Al Horford, and Jrue Holiday.

However, this focus has overshadowed one of the NBA’s premier player development systems, which has consistently transformed late first-round picks, second-round picks, and undrafted players into key contributors. This season, after the franchise lost Porzingis, Horford, and Holiday in the offseason, Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla has positioned role players such as Jordan Walsh, Baylor Scheierman, and Hugo Gonzalez to thrive.

“Everyone’s weaknesses are minimized,” an Eastern scout stated, “and they maximize their players’ strengths. By doing so, they generate numerous 3-point opportunities that make it challenging to defend against them.”

Windhorst: Mazzulla has truly excelled this season in developing his bench and establishing roles that allowed Tatum to reintegrate seamlessly. Additionally, Payton Pritchard has evolved into a crucial contributor, whether starting or coming off the bench.

However, competitors believe Boston’s younger players will face challenges.

“There will likely be a rough quarter or two, probably not until the second round, where their young players will reveal their inexperience,” an Eastern executive commented. “They probably possess enough [star power] to bail them out once or twice, but how they respond to adversity will provide insight into the true quality of this roster.”

Bontemps: Another concern for Boston is at center. Neemias Queta is a worthy Most Improved Player candidate, but his potential playoff matchups include the Detroit Pistons’ Jalen Duren, the Cleveland Cavaliers’ Jarrett Allen, and the New York Knicks’ Karl-Anthony Towns and Mitchell Robinson. The Celtics’ backups, Luka Garza and Nikola Vucevic, are both capable of spacing the floor but raise defensive concerns.

“Can you survive with Queta, Garza, and Vuc [at center]?” a Western assistant coach questioned. “I believe they are the team to beat because I have seen them do it.”

Will the Cavs’ defensive decline be their downfall?

Windhorst: The Cavaliers had one of their strongest halves in recent weeks on Wednesday when they defeated the Hawks, who had entered the game winning 18 of their last 21 contests. They limited Atlanta to 41% shooting in the second half, and Donovan Mitchell and James Harden excelled during a 44-point third quarter. Evan Mobley had a standout game in scoring and rebounding.

However, that game stood out because the Cavs allowed 67 points in the first half, part of a decline over the past two-plus months that has seen their defensive efficiency drop to 17th since the All-Star break. Earlier this week, they surrendered an NBA-record 29 3-pointers to the Memphis Grizzlies, highlighting a 3-point defense that has struggled this season. Cleveland is permitting 42% shooting on corner 3s since the break, ranking 20th in the league alongside several teams that are tanking.

The Cavs are 19-6 when Harden plays, but their defensive issues and fluctuating lineups have made it difficult to have complete confidence in them.

“Harden is an offensive maestro, and he and Mitchell are a formidable duo to contend with every night,” an Eastern scout remarked. “However, Harden has been in better shape, and for some reason, referees are not granting him as many calls as they used to. This impacts their defense; he and Mitchell sometimes get exposed out there.”

Bontemps: On one hand, Cleveland can hope that the return of Allen, who has been dealing with knee issues recently, will help improve their struggling defense.

Conversely, relying on either Max Strus or Dean Wade to defend elite larger wings and ball handlers in the playoffs could prove challenging.

“Allen has missed significant time, and he is a crucial part of their identity,” a scout who recently observed the Cavaliers stated. “You will see an improvement because it’s the playoffs, and everyone is focused, but you still need to manage Donovan and James. …

“Strus and Wade aren’t adequate, and Keon Ellis is too small.”

Windhorst: Harden is averaging 5.8 free throws per game in Cleveland, down from 8.5 in the 44 games he played for the Clippers this season. The Cavs rank fourth in the league in offensive efficiency since acquiring him.

“I understand the rationale behind the Harden trade, and I believe it has positioned them better,” an Eastern executive commented. “However, there will be moments when they might be better off with [Sam] Merrill on the floor defensively instead of Harden. I think their success will largely depend on Donovan’s scoring, which is something we’ve seen before with his teams.”

Mitchell has averaged 28 points over 63 playoff games, including seven 40-point playoff games and three 50-point playoff games. He has yet to reach a conference finals.

Can Jalen Duren serve as the second option for a Finals team?

Bontemps: Duren, alongside MVP candidate Cade Cunningham, has been instrumental in Detroit’s success as they aim for the East’s top seed. However, can the first-time All-Star center provide enough scoring to be the second option on a team that has yet to experience playoff success?

“I like Duren,” a Western executive stated. “I’m hesitant to offer him his max [this summer], but he is a force. He secures every rebound, can defend, and his scoring has surpassed my expectations coming into the season.”

Windhorst: When Cunningham was sidelined due to a collapsed lung, the playmaking-challenged Pistons began to rely on Duren to generate offense. Coach JB Bickerstaff designed plays where Duren acted as the primary ball handler at the top of the key, a skill few were aware he possessed. His usage rate and assists increased, significantly benefiting the Pistons’ offense.

In the 12 games prior to Cunningham’s injury, Duren recorded a total of 14 assists. In a nine-game stretch without Cunningham, Duren averaged four assists per game. This could be a new element for the Pistons’ game plan in the playoffs.

Bontemps: Nevertheless, teams typically require a second high-level ball handler to advance deep in the postseason, similar to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams for Oklahoma City last year. That option is currently unavailable for Detroit, necessitating a collective approach.

“When the primary player has such high usage, does that simplify things?” the Western executive inquired. “That helps to some extent. But I am uncertain if it can solely rely on him.”

Is San Antonio’s post-All-Star shooting improvement genuine?

Windhorst: Early in the season, even as the Spurs enjoyed a strong start led by Victor Wembanyama’s aggressive play, the common counter was to congest the paint to force 3-point attempts. This was a logical strategy— the Spurs lack a wealth of long-range shooters, and Wembanyama can be lured into lower-percentage shots. Over the first 50 games of the season, the Spurs ranked 17th in 3-pointers attempted per game and 22nd in shooting percentage.

“I keep hearing you media folks question why the Spurs won’t win the title,” one Eastern vice president remarked. “You would be better off listing reasons why they might.”

Here is a significant point: Since the All-Star break, the Spurs have dramatically improved their 3-point shooting. They are hitting over 38%, ranking third in the league during this period, and averaging 14.9 makes per game, placing them just outside the top five.

Bontemps: It is one thing to make those shots in February and March; it is another to do so in late April, May, and June—especially considering this roster largely lacks playoff experience.

It has been 30 years since a team in this position reached the NBA Finals without having made a prior playoff run: the 1995 Orlando Magic, led by Shaquille O’Neal and Anfernee Hardaway. There are notable similarities between these two teams, and perhaps the outcome will mirror that of the Magic and their young stars.

However, Saturday’s nail-biter against the Denver Nuggets, where Keldon Johnson, De’Aaron Fox, and Stephon Castle combined to go 0-for-16, illustrates the approach playoff opponents may adopt.

“Young players experiencing the playoffs for the first time is an entirely different challenge,” a Western assistant coach noted. “It will be intriguing to observe how they manage it.

“But perhaps Victor will navigate it all on his own.”

Can Stephen Curry lead Golden State to two road victories?

Bontemps: The immediate response from league insiders I consulted was “no.” Clearly, it has been a challenging season for Golden State in terms of injuries, including the loss of both Jimmy Butler III and Moses Moody for the season, along with the Jonathan Kuminga situation during the first half of the season and Kristaps Porzingis and Curry missing significant portions of the latter half.

“I’m not convinced they can even win the 9-10 game, let alone both,” a Western scout stated. “It’s one thing when Steph gets hot at home with the crowd behind him. That is a real advantage.

“It’s a different scenario when they are on the road, and he is performing in a different environment. That same support simply isn’t there.”

Windhorst: Much of the focus on the Warriors naturally centers on Curry, a transformative player in every aspect. However, the Warriors’ defense has really struggled as the season has progressed, particularly as Steve Kerr has dealt with injuries.

“Our analytics team often tells me that 3-point shooting is frequently a matter of luck, and it depends on the quality of the shot,” a Western scout remarked. “Well, the Warriors must be experiencing some terrible luck, because in the last few games I’ve watched, they are getting exploited on corner 3s.”

The statistics, alarmingly for Golden State, support this claim. Since the All-Star break, the Warriors have allowed a league-worst 46% shooting percentage on corner 3-pointers and an astonishing 57% on right corner 3s. Additionally, they have struggled inside, with opponents shooting 71% in the restricted area over the past two months, ranking fifth worst in the league.

It is challenging to view the Warriors’ current form and argue that they are poised for any sort of playoff success.