NBA Draft: A Key Question for Each Lottery Team’s Offseason
A year prior, the Indiana Pacers and Milwaukee Bucks were gearing up for the playoffs.
This season, following roster changes and injuries to All-Stars Tyrese Haliburton and Giannis Antetokounmpo that hindered their prospects, Indiana and Milwaukee will be among the teams that commence the 2026 offseason on April 12.
The next phase for the Pacers, Bucks, and eight other teams heading to the lottery involves the challenging tasks of preparing for the draft, engaging in free agency talks, and assessing the trade market. (In Milwaukee’s case, this includes a potentially franchise-altering decision regarding Antetokounmpo’s future.)
To kick off the offseason, we will explore the significant question confronting each of the bottom-10 teams and how it might be resolved this summer. (Note: Odds for the No. 1 pick and 2026 draft selections are based on league standings as of Monday’s games.)
Brooklyn Nets
No. 1 pick odds: 14%
2026 draft picks: Nos. 3, 33, 43 (via LAC)
The big question: Should the Nets extend or trade Michael Porter Jr.?
Porter’s inaugural season in Brooklyn — following a trade from Denver that included a 2032 unprotected first-round pick in exchange for Cameron Johnson last July — has showcased a career-best average of 24.2 points per game and marked his fourth consecutive season shooting over 36% from beyond the arc.
Before suffering a strained left hamstring on March 19, Porter had only missed 14 games since the start of the 2023-24 season, indicating a positive trend after a history of injuries early in his career.
His contributions on the court, reliability, and age — Porter will turn 28 in June — should prompt discussions regarding a new contract. He is eligible to sign a four-year, $234 million agreement.
It is crucial to recognize that Brooklyn has no reason to tank next season, as Houston holds the right to swap first-round picks in 2027. The Nets will enter free agency with a high lottery selection and could have between $45 million and $55 million in salary cap space.
Free agents: Ochai Agbaji (restricted), Josh Minott ($2.6 million team option), Day’Ron Sharpe ($6.3 million team option), Ziaire Williams ($6.3 million team option), Jalen Wilson (restricted), EJ Liddell (restricted), Tyson Etienne (restricted), Chaney Johnson (restricted)
Chicago Bulls
No. 1 pick odds: 4.5%
2026 draft picks: Nos. 9, 37 (via NOP), 54 (via DEN); own Portland’s first-round pick if 15-30
The big question: Can the Bulls escape the middle?
Chicago executed a league-high seven trades before the deadline, acquiring eight second-round picks along with former first-round selections Rob Dillingham and Jaden Ivey.
“We’ve maintained significant flexibility heading into the offseason,” Bulls executive vice president of basketball operations Arturas Karnisovas stated to reporters after the Feb. 5 trade deadline. “That gives us real options, whether that is free agency, the draft, trades, or continuing investment in development.”
The flexibility Karnisovas mentioned translates to approximately $64 million available for free agency — assuming Ivey’s free agent hold is renounced — and a likely top-10 draft pick. Since Karnisovas took over in 2020, the Bulls have selected in the lottery five times but have not drafted higher than 11th in any of those instances.
“Being in the middle,” Karnisovas remarked. “That is what we don’t want to do.”
Free agents: Zach Collins, Jaden Ivey (restricted), Leonard Miller ($2.4 million team option), Nick Richards, Collin Sexton, Anfernee Simons, Guerschon Yabusele, Mac McClung (restricted), Yuki Kawamura (restricted), Lachlan Olbrich (restricted)
Dallas Mavericks
No. 1 pick odds: 9%
2026 draft picks: Nos. 6, 47 (via PHX)
The big question: Who is in charge of basketball operations?
“Our goal is to return to winning basketball in Dallas and win championships,” Mavericks owner Patrick Dumont expressed in a letter to fans after the dismissal of general manager Nico Harrison in November.
The individual Dumont appoints as Harrison’s successor will be crucial in determining whether Dallas can regain its winning form.
Since November, Dumont has had Matt Riccardi and Michael Finley co-managing basketball operations on an interim basis. Both were instrumental in executing the significant trade that sent Anthony Davis to Washington in February, which yielded five draft picks, including a late first-rounder in this year’s draft.
More importantly, this transaction extended Dallas’ financial flexibility to build around 2025 No. 1 pick Cooper Flagg. Whether Dumont opts to develop internally or bring in new talent, the Mavericks’ front office will also inherit a lottery pick in the promising 2026 draft, along with young players Max Christie and Dereck Lively II, and financial flexibility starting this offseason.
Additionally, depending on how much the franchise wishes to rely on its youth, Dallas has veterans Kyrie Irving, Daniel Gafford, Naji Marshall, Klay Thompson, and PJ Washington available for retention or trade.
Free agents: Marvin Bagley III, Khris Middleton, Ryan Nembhard ($2.2 million team option), Dwight Powell, Brandon Williams, Moussa Cisse (restricted)
Indiana Pacers
No. 1 pick odds: 14%
2026 draft picks: No. 1
The big question: Can the Pacers find lottery luck?
No team will be more affected by the draft lottery than the Pacers.
Their Feb. 5 trade with the LA Clippers addressed a need at center with the acquisition of 2024-25 All-NBA second-team defender Ivica Zubac, but it also put the Pacers at risk of not securing a lottery pick, despite having one of the league’s poorest records. The Pacers will send the Clippers their first-round pick if it lands between Nos. 5 and 9 — currently a 47.9% probability.
If the Pacers retain their selection, it could propel the franchise back into title contention two seasons after reaching Game 7 of the 2025 Finals. Indiana would have star Tyrese Haliburton returning from an Achilles injury and be positioned to draft from a pool of prospects that includes AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson, Cameron Boozer, Darius Acuff Jr., and Caleb Wilson.
Free agents: Kobe Brown, Micah Potter ($2.8 million team option), Jalen Slawson (restricted)
Memphis Grizzlies
No. 1 pick odds: 6%
2026 draft picks: Nos. 8, 18 (most favorable of Orlando or Phoenix), 31 (via IND)
The big question: Will the Grizzlies find a Ja Morant trade?
Alongside managing three draft picks in the top 31, Memphis is once again faced with a decision regarding two-time All-Star guard Morant. As reported by ESPN’s Shams Charania, the Grizzlies explored trade options for Morant ahead of the deadline, but no agreement was reached.
Morant was sidelined for the season last week, two months after sustaining a UCL strain in his left elbow. Over his 20 games this season — he has played only 79 across the last three seasons — Morant recorded the lowest shooting percentages of his career, with 41% from the field and 23.5% from three-point range.
After Memphis traded 2022-23 Defensive Player of the Year Jaren Jackson Jr. to Utah on Feb. 3, Grizzlies GM Zach Kleiman indicated the team is shifting towards a younger roster. How the two years and $87 million remaining on Morant’s contract fits into that strategy remains to be seen.
Free agents: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($21.6 million player option), GG Jackson ($2.4 million team option), Olivier-Maxence Prosper ($2.5 million team option), Ryan Rupert (restricted)
Milwaukee Bucks
No. 1 pick odds: 0%
2026 draft picks: No. 10 (the less favorable of their own and New Orleans)
The big question: Can the Bucks find closure with Giannis?
Wes Edens, the team’s controlling owner until April 2028, spoke candidly to ESPN’s Ramona Shelburne regarding the future of Milwaukee’s franchise player.
“Giannis is entering the final year [of his contract],” Edens stated. “So one of two outcomes will occur: Either he will be extended or he will be traded.”
Beginning Oct. 1, Antetokounmpo will be eligible to sign a four-year, $275 million contract. (If he opts for his $62.8 million option for 2026-27, it would convert to a three-year, $213.6 million deal.)
However, for Antetokounmpo to agree to a fourth extension with Milwaukee, he must be convinced of the franchise’s plans to enhance a roster that will miss the playoffs for the first time since 2016.
The Bucks are expected to secure a top-10 pick in this year’s draft — due to the trades involving Jrue Holiday and Damian Lillard, they do not control their own first-round pick until 2031 — and have 12 players from the current roster signed for 2026-27. Five of those players, including starting guard Kevin Porter Jr., possess player options.
A trade involving Antetokounmpo would necessitate interested teams to consider multiple factors before formulating a package to acquire the two-time MVP.
What level of influence does Antetokounmpo have in selecting his next team? Would teams be willing to trade a substantial collection of assets — draft picks, young players on manageable contracts, and significant short-term deals — without a guarantee of an extension? Antetokounmpo would be eligible for the same extension he could sign with the Bucks, but not until six months post-trade.
Free agents: Thanasis Antetokounmpo, Ousmane Dieng (restricted), Gary Harris ($3.8 million player option), Andre Jackson Jr. ($2.4 million team option), Kevin Porter Jr. ($5.4 million player option), Taurean Prince ($3.8 million player team option), Jericho Sims ($2.8 million player option), Gary Trent Jr. ($3.9 million player option), Alex Antetokounmpo (restricted)
New Orleans Pelicans
No. 1 pick odds: 0%
2026 draft picks: No. 58 (via DET)
The big question: Has coach James Borrego done enough to remove the interim tag?
Pelicans president of basketball operations Joe Dumars articulated his vision for the franchise when Borrego took over for Willie Green following the team’s 2-10 start.
“It’s about establishing that we are going to be a team that plays hard every night,” Dumars remarked at the time Green was let go. “That’s still what I’m looking for right now, and I had that conversation with James this morning.”
Dumars has had nearly six months to assess Borrego, who has made a compelling case, particularly since the All-Star break, when New Orleans has ranked in the top 15 for both offensive and net ratings. The lineup featuring Dejounte Murray, Trey Murphy, Herb Jones, Saddiq Bey, and Zion Williamson has a plus-13.3 points per 100 possessions since Feb. 24.
While the Pelicans will not be adding a lottery pick to next season’s roster, 14 players from this season’s squad are under contract for 2026-27. New Orleans also possesses a valuable unprotected first-round pick from Milwaukee in 2027.
Free agents: DeAndre Jordan, Kevon Looney ($8 million team option), Karlo Matkovic ($2.3 million team option), Hunter Dickinson (restricted), Trey Alexander (restricted), Josh Oduro (restricted)
Sacramento Kings
No. 1 pick odds: 12.5%
2026 draft picks: Nos. 4, 34, 44 (via CHA)
The big question: What is the comfort level in retaining coach Doug Christie?
When a franchise with only one playoff appearance since 2006 is on track for the fourth-fewest wins in its history, several significant questions arise.
However, with the draft lottery not scheduled until May 10 and free agency commencing seven weeks later, the immediate focus in Sacramento should be on evaluating and determining Christie’s future.
“I’m just expecting him to be my coach until I tell you anything different,” Kings GM Scott Perry stated to reporters after the trade deadline. “I’m not even considering that right now. I want to see us improve incrementally each day, and I want to see him continue to develop as a coach.”
The Kings have a record of 7-15 since Feb. 5, ranking 25th in offense and 27th in defense, but Christie’s team has faced numerous injuries. Sacramento has utilized 31 different starting lineups, which is 13 more than during the 2024-25 season.
The Kings lost Domantas Sabonis, Zach LaVine, and De’Andre Hunter to season-ending injuries at various times, and no player on the roster has appeared in more than 60 games, aside from veterans DeMar DeRozan, Russell Westbrook, and Precious Achiuwa, along with rookies Nique Clifford and Maxime Raynaud.
Free agents: Precious Achiuwa, Drew Eubanks, Zach LaVine ($49 million player option), Doug McDermott, Russell Westbrook, Patrick Baldwin Jr. (restricted), Daeqwon Plowden (restricted), Killian Hayes ($3 million team option)
Utah Jazz
No. 1 pick odds: 10.5%
2026 draft picks: No. 5
The big question: What is the cost to retain restricted free agent Walker Kessler?
Three trades made before the deadline could influence Kessler’s future in Utah.
The first was the acquisition of Jackson from the Grizzlies, a move aimed at accelerating a rebuild that commenced in the 2022 offseason.
Although it was only a three-game sample, the combination of the 6-10 Jackson and 7-1 Lauri Markkanen proved effective when paired with a center in larger lineups. The Jazz were plus-9.8 points per 100 possessions when both players shared the court with 6-11 Jusuf Nurkic.
Kessler underwent season-ending shoulder surgery in November and participated in only five games this season. However, the 2024-25 season was his best as a professional, averaging career highs in points (11.1), rebounds (12.2), and assists (1.7), while leading the NBA with a shooting percentage of 66.3%. He became the first player since Hall of Famer Tim
