Jayson Tatum’s comeback to the Celtics: Addressing five key inquiries

He’s back! Six-time All-Star Jayson Tatum is anticipated to make his season debut on Friday against the Dallas Mavericks, just 10 months after suffering a torn right Achilles, sources informed ESPN’s Shams Charania.

Tatum, who incurred the injury late in Game 4 of the Boston Celtics’ second-round playoff matchup against the New York Knicks, will rejoin a Celtics squad that has significantly exceeded preseason expectations and currently ranks No. 2 in a competitive Eastern Conference with only weeks remaining in the regular season.

Why is Tatum making his return now? What implications does his comeback have for the title race? How might it influence the Celtics’ offseason?

Our NBA insiders address the five key questions surrounding the remarkable return of the 2024 NBA champion.

Why is Tatum returning now, and what can the Celtics anticipate?

He is returning because his objective has always been to participate in meaningful basketball this season.

This is why Tatum underwent surgery the morning following his Achilles tear at Madison Square Garden, before swelling could have delayed his recovery by another month.

He drew inspiration from the recovery journey of his idol, Kobe Bryant, who shared his experience with an Achilles injury in a documentary.

For several months, Tatum was uncertain about his readiness for this season. There were still aspects he needed to address—most crucially, the mental aspect of trusting his body again. However, by diligently pursuing his rehabilitation, Tatum has created an opportunity to return and aid the Celtics’ playoff aspirations. — Ramona Shelburne

How should we expect the Celtics to adjust on the court with Tatum’s return?

Tatum has been the leading shot-taker for the Celtics in each of the past six seasons; the last player to shoot more frequently than Tatum was Kyrie Irving in 2018-19. Thus, with such a high-volume player rejoining the Boston lineup, a significant question is how Jaylen Brown will adapt, as he has entered the MVP conversation by assuming greater responsibility during Tatum’s absence.

Last season, Brown was ranked 23rd among qualified players in usage rate (28.9%), but in 2025-26, he has surged to second in the league (36.5%), trailing only Luka Doncic. There may be some initial adjustments as the two stars find their new equilibrium, with Brown on the rise and Tatum returning from a serious injury.

The addition of such a dynamic offensive player should benefit Brown and his teammates, even if they may need to concede some volume to Tatum; there remains potential for growth, despite the Celtics currently ranking second in team offense. Among 123 players with at least 500 shot attempts this season, according to GeniusIQ, Payton Pritchard ranks 58th in shot quality, Derrick White ranks 94th, and Brown ranks 101st. In contrast, last season, all three players enjoyed easier opportunities while playing alongside Tatum. — Zach Kram

How different are the Celtics compared to last season’s team?

Significantly so. Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday were traded, and Luke Kornet and Al Horford departed in free agency, removing four essential components from Boston’s 2024 title pursuit. Additionally, the Celtics have been without Tatum since his injury last May.

However, Boston has far surpassed all expectations this season—at least those from outside the organization—thanks to a combination of impressive performances from its veterans and notable development from its younger players.

Neemias Queta has emerged as a reliable starting center on one of the best value contracts in the league, and the young trio of Jordan Walsh, Baylor Scheierman, and rookie Hugo Gonzalez has provided coach Joe Mazzulla with consistent energy on the wings during Tatum’s absence.

Meanwhile, Tatum returns to a core that includes Brown, whose performance has placed him in the MVP race; Derrick White, who is achieving career highs in points, assists, steals, and blocks per game; and Payton Pritchard, who, averaging over 32 minutes per game, is enjoying the best season of his career with nearly 17 points, 4 rebounds, and 5 assists. – Tim Bontemps

How could his return influence the Eastern Conference playoff race?

Our Basketball Power Index (BPI) has been monitoring Tatum’s anticipated return date of April 1 (previously March 15, and now March 6), so its forecasts already accounted for his return. This is why their projections indicate a 45% chance for a top two seed in the East, making them the clear frontrunner for that position.

Thus, in terms of predictions, Tatum’s return does not significantly alter anything. It was already factored in. Without this consideration, BPI would estimate the Celtics’ chances of securing the top spot at around 35%. Consequently, the Knicks and the Cavs would have faced an easier path.

In reality, the impact that Tatum brings to the race now is not nearly as surprising as the overall performance of the Celtics throughout the season thus far.

Recall that at the beginning of the year, the Celtics had a 50% chance of merely making the playoffs. The players who have propelled them this far are still present; they simply need to gain more experience with Tatum before the postseason commences. — Dean Oliver

How does his return affect the Celtics’ offseason strategy?

Do not anticipate a repeat of last summer, when Boston significantly reduced its salary.

The exits of Porzingis, Holiday, Horford, and Kornet not only led to a decrease in the Celtics’ payroll from a projected $540 million to $187 million, but also balanced their financial outlook for future years.

Trading Anfernee Simons for Nikola Vucevic, along with three minor transactions at February’s deadline, brought Boston under the luxury tax for the first time since 2021-22.

With 11 players under contract this offseason, including Tatum, Brown, and White, Boston is $21 million below the luxury tax and comfortably under both aprons. The Celtics also possess their own first-round pick and a second-round selection from Milwaukee in the upcoming June draft.

The critical decision will revolve around the center position.

Vucevic is an unrestricted free agent, and Queta has a $2.7 million team option. Boston could opt to exercise Queta’s option and re-sign Vucevic while remaining under the luxury tax—and both aprons. This would allow the Celtics to offer Queta an extension for up to four years and $93 million, with the first season of the extension commencing in 2027-28. — Bobby Marks