How the disparity between NBA conferences has diminished this season and its effect on the playoffs

A narrative has emerged in the NBA this season: the injury-stricken and talent-limited Eastern Conference is in disarray, while the Western Conference is flourishing with strong teams and excitement.

Indeed, the playoff landscape in the West is filled with captivating storylines, from the Oklahoma City Thunder’s pursuit of a championship repeat, to Victor Wembanyama’s ascent with the unexpectedly successful San Antonio Spurs, to veteran-heavy contenders in Denver, Minnesota, Houston, and Los Angeles grappling with consistency.

However, with four formidable teams and a group of promising up-and-comers, the East presents its own compelling narratives, challenging the notion that the East is inferior and the West is superior.

Let’s delve into the reasons behind this narrative, why the Eastern Conference possesses underrated strength this season, and how this unexpected development could influence the forthcoming playoffs.

Traditional Western dominance

After the East dominated interconference matchups for a significant portion of the 20th century, the West has reversed this trend for the majority of the 21st century. From 1999-00 through 2024-25, the East achieved a better record in only three out of 26 seasons, with those victories being narrow, while the West often won interconference contests by substantial margins.

Numerous examples illustrate the stark imbalance between the two conferences this century. In the 2002-03 season, the Detroit Pistons secured the East’s No. 1 seed with a 50-32 record, while six teams from the West achieved at least 50 wins. In 2003-04, only four teams from the East had winning records. In 2006-07, all five players on the All-NBA first team hailed from the West. In 2013-14, the Phoenix Suns’ 48-34 record would have tied them for third place in the East, but in the West, they finished ninth and missed the playoffs in the pre-play-in era.

This disparity has persisted not only among teams but also among the NBA’s top individual talents. In the 21st century, 63% of All-NBA players have originated from the West. Notably, the 2024-25 season marked the first this century where more All-NBA players (eight) came from the East than the West (seven).

Western teams have also experienced greater lottery luck over the years, with elite prospects like Cooper Flagg and Victor Wembanyama joining Western franchises. The five No. 1 picks in the 21st century with the lowest career box plus/minus ratings were all selected by Eastern Conference teams: Anthony Bennett, Zaccharie Risacher, Kwame Brown, Andrea Bargnani, and Markelle Fultz.

This longstanding trend appeared poised to continue, if not intensify, this season, particularly with two of the top teams in the East (the Boston Celtics and Indiana Pacers) losing their star players to Achilles injuries. An analysis of preseason over-unders from Basketball-Reference indicated that Vegas anticipated Western teams to win 54% of their interconference games, consistent with recent patterns, and five of the top seven teams in preseason championship odds were from the West.

A flipped script in 2025-26

In contrast to expectations, the East has maintained competitiveness in the conference race this season. As of Monday’s games, Western teams hold a record of 161-157 against their Eastern counterparts, resulting in a 50.6% win rate. This reflects parity rather than overwhelming dominance.

This balance is particularly significant at the top of the standings: Eastern Conference teams rank second (Celtics), third (Pistons), fifth (New York Knicks), and eighth (Cleveland Cavaliers) in net rating, while Western Conference teams occupy the first, fourth, sixth, and seventh positions. According to ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI), four teams from the East are projected to win over 50 games, compared to five from the West.

A potential counterargument might suggest that the best teams in the East are benefiting from weaker opponents. However, the lower tier of the West is just as weak as that of the East, if not more so; teams ranked 11 through 15 in the East standings are on a pace for an average of 26.3 wins, compared to an average of 25.6 wins in the West. Furthermore, according to Basketball-Reference’s Simple Rating System, which evaluates teams based on point differential and strength of schedule, Eastern teams rank second (Pistons), third (Celtics), fifth (Knicks), and seventh (Cavaliers) overall.

Moreover, we can analyze how teams have fared exclusively against Western Conference opponents to account for strength-of-schedule variations. By this measure, 10 teams have a net rating exceeding plus-3: five from the West (the top five teams in the standings) and five from the East (the top four plus the Charlotte Hornets).

This concealed conference parity is evident not only in assessing current performance but also in forecasting future outcomes for the remainder of the season. According to the playoff version of BPI, four of the top six teams are from the East. The so-called lesser conference appears even stronger when evaluated by the full-strength version of estimated plus-minus from the analytical site Dunks & Threes, which highlights four of the top five teams.

Playoff BPI for Top-Six Seeds

Each contender in the Eastern Conference has a notable weakness that could hinder its chances of reaching the Finals. The Pistons rank 28th in three-point shooting and have not won a playoff series since the George W. Bush administration. The Cavaliers are integrating an injured James Harden into their lineup and may appear vulnerable after consecutive playoff disappointments. The Celtics find themselves in a state of uncertainty as they await Jayson Tatum’s return from an Achilles injury. Meanwhile, the Knicks have struggled to find cohesion this season. A team led by Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns will face significant defensive challenges in the postseason.

However, similar concerns can be raised about all the Western Conference contenders pursuing the Thunder, the reigning champions. San Antonio is inexperienced. The Denver Nuggets, burdened by significant injury issues, rank 21st in defensive rating. The Houston Rockets sit 18th in offensive rating since Steven Adams’ season-ending left ankle injury, while the Minnesota Timberwolves are among the least consistent teams in the league. Additionally, the Los Angeles Lakers possess the worst defense of any team with a winning record, while exceeding their point differential by the largest margin of any team in the league.

Playoff implications

Despite the evidence of balance between the conferences, the West is likely to retain several advantages as April approaches. First, more elite superstars are found in the West. With Tatum still recovering and Giannis Antetokounmpo’s Milwaukee Bucks seemingly unlikely to make the playoffs, it can be argued that the top five players in the 2025-26 postseason will all be competing in the West: Nikola Jokic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luka Doncic, Wembanyama, and Anthony Edwards.

Second, the West boasts one overwhelmingly strong team without any apparent weaknesses. Even after a slump due to injuries, the Thunder continue to excel in every advanced metric of team strength. BPI estimates their chances of winning the title at about 50-50, making them the first team to repeat since the 2017-18 Warriors; if the Thunder navigate the Western playoff bracket to reach the Finals, BPI predicts they will defeat their Eastern Conference opponent 78% of the time. (However, the primary contenders from the Eastern Conference would have at least a coin flip’s chance against any Finals opponent other than Oklahoma City.)

Lastly, the West has greater depth beyond its top four teams, which should lead to more exciting first-round matchups. The fifth, sixth, and seventh-ranked teams have better records in the West than in the East, and the star power of the Lakers, Golden State Warriors (assuming a healthy Stephen Curry), and LA Clippers suggests these teams could pose significant playoff threats compared to their Eastern counterparts.

In contrast, the East’s first round may lack many surprises—although a healthy version of the Philadelphia 76ers and the surging Charlotte Hornets could pose a serious challenge to a top seed as they advance into the playoffs. A potential Hornets-Pistons first-round series following last month’s altercation would attract considerable attention.

Detroit, Boston, New York, and Cleveland are likely to finish in the top four in the East in some order; according to BPI, there is only a 5% chance that any of them will fall out of that position. However, this arrangement could lead to a pair of conference semifinal matchups that are just as compelling as those in the West.

The most probable second-round matchups in either conference, according to BPI, are Pistons-Cavaliers and Celtics-Knicks. Playoff BPI evaluates all four teams similarly, with ratings between five and six points above average. Each of these teams has at least a 20% chance of reaching the Finals, based on BPI’s analysis.

However, a competitive race does not imply an inferior one. This four-way battle is intriguing, featuring young stars and veterans aiming to overcome negative playoff narratives, along with former champions and respected franchises eager for postseason success.

This high-level competition indicates that there will be no straightforward paths to the Finals, unlike in previous years when the East lagged significantly behind the West. Unless unforeseen playoff upsets occur, whichever team emerges as the Eastern Conference champion will have had to defeat two formidable opponents along the way. Any Eastern team that secures a Finals berth will have truly earned it.