Can Jayson Tatum regain his form before the deadline? Insights from NBA analysts.
WITHIN TD GARDEN’S home locker room, Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum discussed the challenges he faced during his nearly 300-day recovery from a torn Achilles.
“I didn’t know how this was going to unfold,” Tatum shared with reporters Sunday following Boston’s defeat to the Minnesota Timberwolves. “It’s difficult. In the moment, you try to avoid dwelling on it. You just want to be Jayson Tatum and feel like your true self again.”
“I’m not Superman, so it’s clearly going to take some time.”
After sitting out the first 62 games, Tatum made his return on March 6 to a warm welcome from the Boston fans. At times, including during his season debut against the Dallas Mavericks, where he recorded 15 points and 12 rebounds in 27 minutes, Tatum has displayed glimpses of the All-NBA caliber that has established the 28-year-old forward as one of the league’s elite players.
Tatum has scored in double digits in all eight games he has participated in—achieving at least 20 points in five of those outings—along with four double-doubles. However, these statistics mask the understandable adjustment period as Boston gradually reintegrates its star player amid a playoff chase.
The Celtics, whose revamped roster entered this season with the franchise’s lowest expectations in a decade, have embarked on a remarkable campaign that has positioned them in second place in the Eastern Conference and as the betting favorite to reach the Finals. (On Wednesday night, Boston will face the only team in the league with superior NBA title odds, the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder.)
To regain their previous heights, Tatum will likely need to return to his pre-injury performance level. As the franchise navigates the complexities of this nearly unprecedented scenario, Tatum and the Celtics represent perhaps the most significant wildcard in the 2026 playoffs.
“The question is, do they have sufficient time to sort it out?” a Western Conference scout told ESPN. “[Eleven more] regular-season games isn’t a lot.”
BOSTON’S SEASON WAS anticipated to be a transitional year, as Tatum’s injury and the offseason departures of Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, Al Horford, and Luke Kornet left the team without much of its 2024 championship core. The Celtics did not adopt that mindset, and Tatum’s potential return loomed over Boston’s unexpected rise to the top tier of the East.
Even prior to Tatum’s surgery—conducted the morning after the Game 4 loss to the New York Knicks to prevent swelling and expedite his recovery by a month—there was optimism that Tatum could indeed return at some point during the 2025-26 season.
“[Due to] the seriousness with which you approach surgery,” Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla remarked before Tatum’s return game. “The seriousness with which you begin the rehab process, not just physically, but also mentally and emotionally. …
“I knew he would do everything possible.”
As Tatum continued to meet recovery milestones, attention shifted to how he would perform upon his eventual return. Once he did, the dialogue evolved once more.
Could Tatum potentially regain his superstar status in time for a significant playoff run?
“I’m just taking it one day at a time,” Tatum stated Sunday. “I have probably the worst injury one could have. I returned in 10 months.
“I aimed for perfection and,” Tatum added, snapping his fingers, “[to return to] first-team All-NBA Jayson just like that. I didn’t rush the rehab process, so I can’t rush this.”
Tatum’s initial eight games have showcased numerous highs and lows, with two statistics that stand out: a 30.8% usage rate and a significant dependence on 3-pointers.
“It would be beneficial if he could share the ball a bit more,” an East assistant coach commented. “But I don’t anticipate that happening.”
Tatum’s usage, while consistent with his previous five seasons, does not reflect a player gradually reintegrating into play. “That’s too high,” another West scout stated bluntly.
“A major aspect of this is the desire to return and be what you were before,” an assistant coach whose team has faced Tatum this season noted. “It’s challenging to say, ‘I’m back, but I’m only able to play for X number of minutes.’
Moreover, Tatum has taken 75 of his 139 shots (53.9%) from beyond the arc.
“To me, the [nearly nine] 3s a game illustrate the situation,” the assistant coach remarked. “He’s still incredibly intelligent, and he can shoot. However, he doesn’t seem to trust [his leg yet], or he can’t drive past defenders yet, so he’s relying on his jumper more than ever.”
However, merely examining Tatum’s early shooting statistics, including 38.8% overall and 29.3% from 3 in the games he has played, does not accurately reflect his potential impact. While scoring often garners the most attention—heading into 2025-26, Tatum averaged over 26 points in five consecutive seasons—he has contributed significantly in other areas throughout his career.
Despite a lack of explosiveness, Tatum is averaging a career-high 8.9 rebounds, which has been crucial for an undersized Celtics roster following the loss of big men Porzingis, Horford, and Kornet last summer. Tatum has consistently been a strong team and help defender, averaging 1.1 steals this season.
“I believe they’re the best team in the East,” another assistant coach who has observed the Celtics since Tatum’s return stated. “I don’t think his presence is beneficial right now, but I believe it will be in the playoffs.
“He simply doesn’t appear to have confidence in that leg yet. [However], if you allow him to shoot spot-up jumpers and rhythm shots, he’ll be effective.”
THE CHALLENGE FACING Tatum and the Celtics is finding the right balance between the natural urge to quickly resume a primary role and the reality that the optimal immediate path forward involves Tatum fitting into a secondary role behind MVP candidate Jaylen Brown.
“[Tatum] resembles most players recovering from an Achilles injury: not great. That’s why returning now is so challenging. There’s considerable downside, but limited upside,” an East scout remarked, adding that they believe the Celtics are providing Tatum with as much freedom as he needs to regain his rhythm.
As an illustration of how Boston could maximize Tatum moving forward, the first West scout referenced the transformation occurring within the Los Angeles Lakers’ offense in recent weeks, as LeBron James has adopted a new role as a secondary option behind Luka Doncic.
“To their credit, and to his credit, [LeBron is] playing the right way,” the scout noted. “He’s a basketball genius, and he’s figuring out how to fill in the gaps, making them unstoppable right now. You have the adjustment period with reintegrating Tatum, and it simply requires time.”
Tatum has primarily taken over Jordan Walsh’s minutes in Boston’s rotation. The dynamic third-year forward had been averaging 17.2 minutes but has not participated in Boston’s last five games. Walsh’s 5.3 points per game this season fall significantly short of what even a recovering Tatum can provide—let alone a fully healthy version.
Naturally, it will take time for Tatum to return to his peak performance—something that every source consulted regarding his return believes will ultimately occur. Whether that happens during Boston’s forthcoming playoff run is arguably one of the most pressing questions facing the conference.
Last year’s conference champion, the Indiana Pacers, are currently in the midst of a genuine transitional year following Tyrese Haliburton’s Achilles injury in Game 7 of the NBA Finals. The Detroit Pistons have enjoyed an impressive season at the top of the conference, but concerns linger about their scoring capabilities in the playoffs. They haven’t won a playoff series since 2008, and their star player, Cade Cunningham, is sidelined with a collapsed lung.
The Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers, on the other hand, began the season as co-favorites to win the conference but have experienced numerous setbacks that have raised doubts about either team’s ability to advance. Additionally, other Eastern teams once thought to have a chance to make a significant impact—such as the Orlando Magic, Atlanta Hawks, and Philadelphia 76ers—have fallen short.
However, the Celtics have always maintained their belief that they can secure the championship. That was Mazzulla’s message during training camp, and it remains the team’s conviction now that Tatum has returned. Not only is Boston striving to return to the NBA Finals, but they are also working to guide their star through an exceptionally challenging process of adjusting to high-level basketball on the fly—with the playoffs approaching.
“The situation reminds me, in a way, of the [No. ] 45 Jordan year,” the East assistant coach remarked, referencing when Michael Jordan returned from playing baseball in March of the 1994-95 season. “He’s working his way back into shape midseason, getting up to speed, and we’ll see if he can.”
