Scottie Scheffler, Bryson DeChambeau, emerging challengers, and additional key narratives
AUGUSTA, Ga. — Rory McIlroy and Collin Morikawa are recovering from back injuries.
World No. 1 golfer Scottie Scheffler has welcomed a baby boy and has not competed in nearly a month.
Due to these factors and others, the 90th edition of the Masters at Augusta National Golf Club appears more open than in recent years.
“It just makes this event a little bit more special and even more fun going out there and playing against the best,” 2018 Masters champion Patrick Reed stated.
Does this year’s Masters feel more open than it has in a while?
Mark Schlabach: Scheffler hasn’t been as dominant, and McIlroy and Morikawa have been managing back issues, so it does seem wide open. I believe there could be as many as 10 to 12 golfers who might win a green jacket this week, and the previously mentioned major champions may not even be the frontrunners due to their injuries and extended breaks.
It could be LIV Golf League stars Jon Rahm or Bryson DeChambeau, or former Masters champion Reed, who departed the Saudi Arabia-backed circuit before the season and is rejoining the PGA Tour this fall. Reed has achieved five top-10 finishes at Augusta National since 2018, which ties him with Rahm, Xander Schauffele, and Cameron Smith for the most.
“I just feel like with how deep golf has been, especially this past year to two years, that the fields are obviously getting a lot stronger,” Reed remarked. “I feel like the field this week is really strong like always. I feel like it used to be five or six, maybe seven guys. I definitely feel like this year you have 10 to 12 guys who have a really legitimate opportunity to win the green jacket.
“It just makes this event a little bit more special and even more fun going out there and playing against the best.”
Schauffele has been performing as well as anyone on the PGA Tour, and he could secure the third leg of the career Grand Slam. Morikawa, who was playing exceptionally well prior to his injury, and Brooks Koepka, who has already accumulated five major championship victories, could also be in contention.
Paolo Uggetti: Hereβs the world ranking of every player who has won each of the past seven Masters, starting with Tiger Woods in 2019: sixth, first, 14th, first, third, first, second.
In other words, over the last decade, the tournament has consistently produced high-caliber winners. More specifically, in the past four years, Scheffler, Rahm, and McIlroy have all been among the top favorites heading into the week.
This year feels different. Yes, Scheffler still looms large in the sport, but his performance has slightly declined from historic to very good. McIlroy has not displayed his best form this season and is still enjoying the aftermath of his dramatic victory last year, while Rahm has excelled in LIV but has not performed well in majors over the last few seasons.
There seems to be a void ready to be filled by either an unexpected winner this year or a surprising player who has shown promise this season. This includes players like Cameron Young, Jacob Bridgeman, Matt Fitzpatrick, Akshay Bhatia, and Chris Gotterup — all of whom have secured a victory this season. In fact, it appears that anyone in the top 25 of the Official World Golf Ranking this year — including Patrick Reed! — has a genuine chance to wear the green jacket come Sunday. We might be due for a somewhat unexpected winner, but it could also lead to a tournament with numerous names in contention as it progresses.
Is Scotty Scheffler still the favorite?
Schlabach: If Scheffler regains his form, I believe he remains the player to beat at Augusta National. He won his first event of the season at the American Express on January 22, followed by back-to-back top-five finishes in Phoenix and Pebble Beach, California.
Yes, Scheffler’s swing did not appear great in two outings during the Florida swing, but he did not finish tied for 56th. He tied for 24th in the Arnold Palmer Invitational and for 22nd in the Players. Because he did not finish in the top 10, many are questioning what might be wrong.
Now that Scheffler’s wife, Meredith, has given birth to their second son, Remy, born on March 27, perhaps his mind will be clearer and more focused.
Indeed, Scheffler’s ball-striking metrics have not been as strong as in previous seasons. He ranks 82nd in strokes gained: approach (.080) on tour; he was first in that statistic heading into each of the last three Masters.
However, his putting has been exceptional. He ranks 17th on tour in strokes gained: putting (.547) and has gained strokes on the green in each of his last 12 starts. This is concerning for the rest of the competitors.
Uggetti: Literally, figuratively, spiritually, and actually — yes, Scheffler is still the favorite and should be. We are nitpicking when we assess his performance this year and express concern, but that is the standard the No. 1 player in the world has inevitably set for himself.
As I mentioned earlier, aside from possibly Reed, there is no other player with the same level of experience at Augusta and recent form who could even be considered a close contender to Scheffler.
It is important to note: Scheffler has not appeared to be his dominant self. His strokes gained: approach numbers are significantly lower than in recent years, which is concerning. Additionally, there has been a noticeable undercurrent of frustration when he has not performed to his standards. Nevertheless, Augusta is Scheffler’s favored venue, and there is no better time for him to regain his form than this week.
What do you expect from DeChambeau and Rahm this week?
Schlabach: DeChambeau has won his last two starts in the LIV Golf League, in Singapore and South Africa, and I believe he will be highly motivated to perform well this week.
McIlroy engaged in mental games with him during the final round last year, which seemed effective as DeChambeau’s 3-over 75 in the final 18 holes eliminated him from contention.
After facing challenges at Augusta National early in his career, DeChambeau has been in the top 10 after each round in the last two Masters — the only other golfer to achieve this was Scheffler. He has learned how to approach the course, and I would be surprised if he is not in contention again this week.
Uggetti: Rahm may be the most intriguing player at the Masters this week. He is coming off a strong series of finishes on LIV (one victory and no worse than a fifth-place finish in five events), yet it remains uncertain how much that form will translate to a venue like Augusta.
Rahm’s major record has been inconsistent since joining LIV — he has three top-10 finishes, a missed cut, and two finishes outside of the top 30. Here, the two-time major champion has finished T-45 and T-14 since his win in 2023.
It would be unwise to dismiss Rahm at Augusta, especially given that his game has been trending positively. For him, securing a second green jacket would significantly bolster his standing among the elite players in the sport.
How do you think the course will play this year?
Schlabach: It has been extremely dry in Georgia for the past couple of months, so I expect the greens to be firm — and they will likely become faster if that is what Augusta National desires this week.
“I think speed on the greens is going to be crucial, as always, with them being firm and fast,” Schauffele stated. “A significant achievement is to avoid three-putts. I think that is always a major goal here at Augusta. Then positioning.
“If you can be disciplined, ensuring your good shots are exceptional while making sure your bad shots are in the right areas, that is how you need to play to contend on this course, and I believe everyone understands that. The challenge lies in executing it.”
Uggetti: It is early, but we may be in for a firm and fast Masters. No rain is predicted, and the course already seems quite bouncy and dry.
“I think the course is in excellent condition, and it is already fairly firm. It appears that the grass is quite lush. It is always well-maintained here, but it seems like there is just a bit more grass,” Smith noted. “It is a little fuller, and there is no rain in the forecast. They can really manage it however they wish, I believe. It will be firm and fast, I would assume.”
Players anticipate that the course will only become firmer, faster, and more challenging. By the weekend, when temperatures are expected to reach the 80s, we could witness a significant performance, not from any individual player, but from the course itself. The top players should emerge accordingly.
Sleeper pick for the week
Schlabach: Bhatia is just 24, but he is already a three-time winner on the PGA Tour, most recently at the Arnold Palmer Invitational on March 8.
Now ranked 19th in the world, Bhatia possesses the skill set to win a green jacket. He ranks sixth on tour in strokes gained: total (1.646), eighth in approach (.792), and 10th in putting (.730).
He has also performed well in several significant events over the past few seasons, tying for 16th in the 2024 U.S. Open and for 13th in the Players in March.
Additionally, three left-handed golfers have won the Masters — Phil Mickelson, Bubba Watson, and Mike Weir. I would not be surprised to see Bhatia become the fourth. If not this year, then certainly in the near future.
Uggetti: Are we perhaps overlooking the well-known major contender Koepka? To clarify, since Koepka won the 2023 PGA Championship and finished T-2 at Augusta that year, he has not placed inside the top 10 in a major in his last 10 attempts, including missing three cuts at majors last year.
Koepka, now back on the PGA Tour, has gradually regained his form. He missed the cut at the Houston Open but had finished within the top 20 in his last three events prior to that. It would be somewhat surprising if Koepka were to wear the green jacket on Sunday, but there is certainly a pathway for it.
As for a longer shot, consider Jason Day (+10000). He tied for eighth last year and has been consistently near the top of leaderboards on tour recently.
