Previewing the Players Championship: Is Koepka a contender, and who are potential dark horses?

PONTE VEDRA BEACH, Fla. — Regardless of whether one considers the Players Championship a major, one of the most significant weeks on the PGA Tour has arrived, bringing with it numerous storylines.

Defending champion Rory McIlroy and world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler are both aiming to secure a third Players title for their careers. Brooks Koepka is participating in his first Players since 2022. The golf course is expected to present more challenges than in recent years, while many other competitors are seeking a career-defining victory.

Here are five narratives we are monitoring at TPC Sawgrass this week.

1. Is Scottie the clear favorite this week?

Paolo Uggetti: The statistics suggest yes, and they likely should, yet if you have observed Scheffler’s performance over the last three tournaments, you would realize it’s not that straightforward. In all three events, Scheffler has faced difficulties on Thursdays, and last week at Bay Hill, he seemed particularly frustrated with his performance, even tossing a ball into the water after a missed putt.

The fact that a T-24 finish is viewed as disappointing for Scheffler indicates the high expectations surrounding him, and this week should be no exception. While Scheffler downplays his challenges in interviews and shows his emotions on the course, the truth is that this week is well-suited for him—he has already claimed victory at this event twice, and TPC Sawgrass requires exceptional iron play. That is where the complication arises.

Scheffler’s iron play has not been at his usual elite level recently. In fact, after leading the PGA Tour in strokes gained: approach for three consecutive seasons, he currently ranks 88th this season. It is hard to believe that this trend will persist for a player of his caliber, and this week presents an excellent opportunity for him to regain his dominant form.

Mark Schlabach: With McIlroy possibly out due to a back injury, I would consider Scheffler the clear favorite.

After becoming the first golfer to win consecutive Players Championship titles in 2023 and ’24, Scheffler can join Jack Nicklaus as the only three-time winner in history. (McIlroy can also achieve this if he competes, having won in 2019 and ’25.)

Scheffler has appeared somewhat human in recent weeks, as Paolo pointed out. Slow starts have hindered him in 2026; his scoring average in the last three rounds (67.0) is nearly 3.5 strokes better than in the first round (70.4) this season. He seems to lack an explanation for his slow beginnings.

However, starting strong at TPC Sawgrass has not been an issue for Scheffler, who is 13 under on the first three holes throughout his career.

Two-time major champion Collin Morikawa has been performing well and exuding confidence, while reigning Tour Championship winner Tommy Fleetwood continues to play effectively.

But I would back Scheffler again if Rory is absent.

2. Apart from Rory and Scottie, which other player will you be observing closely this week?

Uggetti: It may be somewhat old news, but the Brooks Koepka storyline remains captivating, especially this week. This marks the first occasion Koepka is competing on Tour with all the top players in the field. As the PGA Tour attempts to elevate the Players to a more major-like status, it will be interesting to see how Koepka rises to the occasion, as he typically does in larger events.

This course does not exactly suit him perfectly. In seven appearances, he has never achieved a top-10 finish, and he missed the cut the last time he participated in this event in 2022. Additionally, his performance on the renowned par-3 17th hole has been challenging. In 20 rounds at TPC Sawgrass, Koepka is 20-over par on that hole.

“That 17th hole has troubled me over the years,” Koepka remarked. “I’ve had good rounds here; that’s just the one obstacle that always gets me.”

Although he faced difficulties in his initial two starts back on the PGA Tour, Koepka displayed glimpses of his former self when he shot 6-under 65 in the final round at PGA National a few weeks ago. This week, however, will provide a more accurate assessment of where his game stands among the Tour’s elite.

Schlabach: Two-time major champion Xander Schauffele was showing signs of returning to his previous championship form before faltering in the final 36 holes at last week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational, where he tied for 24th at 2 under.

After recovering from a painful rib injury that disrupted his 2025 season, Schauffele had solid performances, tying for 19th at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and for seventh in the Genesis Invitational.

Schauffele is a two-time runner-up in The Players, finishing second in his first appearance in 2018 and again in 2024. His short game has been outstanding at the Stadium Course—he ranks second in strokes gained: around the green (0.66) since 2018.

Will we begin to see the Schauffele who dominated the sport alongside Scheffler in 2024?

3. Who are the potential dark horses this week?

Uggetti: How about another former champion? Rickie Fowler won this event over a decade ago and has experienced many ups and downs since then, but his game appears to be improving this season.

Fowler has made five starts, with his worst finish being a T-28 at Riviera. He has recorded four top-20 finishes and a T-9 last week at Bay Hill. He ranks 17th in strokes gained this season, and aside from his performance around the green (157th), Fowler is playing some of the best golf he has in recent years. Much has changed since his victory at TPC Sawgrass in 2015, but this could be an opportune week for him to leverage his experience.

Schlabach: I’m not certain that a former Players Championship winner and the 28th-ranked golfer in the world qualifies as a dark horse, but Si Woo Kim has an impressive history at TPC Sawgrass and has been striking the ball exceptionally well this season.

The Korean golfer has already participated in seven events this season, finishing in the top 15 in five of them. He was the runner-up in the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines and tied for third in the WM Phoenix Open.

Heading into this week, Kim ranks second on tour in strokes gained: approach (1.198) and tee to green (1.947). He has already recorded 23 rounds under par in 2026.

Kim, who won the 2017 Players Championship at the age of 21, is familiar with the Stadium Course.

Jake Knapp, currently ranked 42nd in the world, was performing exceptionally well before having to withdraw from the API last week due to illness. He finished in the top 11 in each of his first five starts, including a solo sixth in the Genesis Invitational.

Knapp has excelled in many aspects so far in 2026. He ranks second in strokes gained: total (2.183) and fourth in putting (1.095). He is also seventh in driving distance (319.4 yards), although accuracy off the tee (58.6%) has occasionally been a concern.

4. How do you anticipate the course will perform this week?

Uggetti: After spending a few days at TPC Sawgrass, it is evident that the Tour is making a deliberate effort to set up the course to be more challenging than in recent years. The rough is thicker—Justin Rose confirmed this when he mentioned that his caddie noted it was half an inch longer—and the greens appear to have a firmer bounce this time around.

I observed on Tuesday as Wyndham Clark hit a sand wedge into the 12th green, and the ball bounced up to waist height before settling back down on the surface. On Monday, Adam Schenk hit two balls into the rough to the right of 18 and had difficulty locating them among the mounds. Chipping around the greens will be more difficult, and it seems some collars near the water have been trimmed down as well.

While I hesitate to use the term “major championship test,” it seems we will witness a tougher Sawgrass this year than in most. Although rain is forecasted for Thursday, it does not appear that it will be significant enough to substantially alter the conditions.

5. Who do you predict will win?

Uggetti: I’ll go with Ludvig Åberg. His finish at Bay Hill (T-3) and T-20 at Riviera were encouraging, and it seems he has found his rhythm after a challenging start to the season on the West Coast.

With the course likely playing tougher due to firmer greens and longer rough than usual, a player like Åberg, who hits the ball very high and straight, is well-positioned to succeed. If his putting can improve (it has been the weakest aspect of his game this season), expect him to be in contention by Sunday.

Schlabach: When uncertain, I will choose the golfer who has been the most dominant for much of the past three seasons. Yes, Scheffler’s ball-striking has not met his historic standards, but every player is bound to have a few off weeks now and then.

Scheffler will join the Golden Bear on Sunday as the only three-time winner in Players Championship history—and he will complete the career Grand Slam at the U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in June.