Guidelines for Wagering on the Valero Texas Open: Top Bets, DFS Advice, and Additional Insights

TPC San Antonio presents a challenge for ballstriking that reveals deficiencies in iron play, compelling players to navigate carefully around the greens.

The persistent storms on Thursday cast doubt on the typical “fast start” narrative. Friday is expected to remain unsettled with wind and ongoing rain, while Saturday may bring significant interruptions due to heavy storms and delays.

On Sunday, conditions are predicted to shift dramatically; it is expected to be cooler, drier, and more playable. This suggests that the tournament may not be determined early on, but rather favors consistent players who can endure the initial three days and capitalize when the weather finally improves.

Maintain a conservative approach this week. There is no advantage in making hasty wagers just before Masters week.

Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook (with ties) and subject to change.

Best bets

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Ludvig Åberg: Top 20 (-125)

Full odds:

• Top 10 +165

• Top 5 +315

• To win +1500

This week’s key question is whether TPC San Antonio remains a ballstriking challenge or evolves into a short game struggle, as this distinction is crucial for Aberg.

The rationale for backing him is straightforward. He has delivered consecutive weeks of exceptional ballstriking, culminating in a T3 at Bay Hill and a T5 at the Players. His strokes gained on approach rank him among the top 10 in the field, excelling both off the tee and with his irons, which is precisely the combination this course rewards most.

TPC is designed to highlight average iron players. The fairways measure 25-30 yards in width, the greens are heavily bunkered, and their undulation makes them appear smaller than their actual dimensions. A misstep can lead to scrambling from deep sand or native rough.

Aberg’s proficiency in ballstriking means he is seldom involved in those discussions.

When he does miss, his short game statistics support him, ranking 12th in sand saves, which could prove advantageous given the challenging Valero greenside bunkers, along with a top 25 ranking around the green. The only real vulnerability is his overall scrambling, but with his irons performing so well, he is creating shorter, cleaner recovery opportunities from the outset.

Jordan Spieth: Top 20 (-110)

Full odds:

• Top 10 +190

• Top 5 +375

• To win +1850

Including Spieth on your card is akin to having multiple players due to his unpredictable nature, but this can work both ways. This week, the conditions are aligning for the version of Spieth that is most desirable.

He has achieved three consecutive top-20 finishes at this venue, including a victory in 2021. His history at this course is not coincidental. He ranks in the top five on approach, top 30 around the green, and top 10 from tee to green, a profile that suits a course requiring both iron accuracy and short game ingenuity. When he recorded a T10 in 2024, Spieth gained nearly 10 strokes in ballstriking. In 2025, his putting was the key factor. In essence, he consistently finds ways to compete.

The weather forecast actually enhances his appeal from solid play to stronger conviction due to rain and lower scoring in the early rounds. This week will require survival and creativity, grinding through challenging conditions, saving pars from situations that others may turn into bogeys, and exercising patience while the field loses strokes.

When conditions become uncomfortable and chaos begins to differentiate the competitors, that is when backing Spieth is advisable.

Players to consider for Daily Fantasy

Sudarshan Yellamaraju, $8,100: The statistics indicate he should be in the conversation, ranking top six off the tee, on approach, and overall, along with consecutive top-six finishes at the Players and Houston, showcasing impressive iron stats in all but one tournament this year. His form is legitimate.

However, the risk is equally significant. He ranks 107th in sand saves on a course where bunkers are strategically placed to create challenges, and he has no prior experience at this venue. The $8,100 price reflects a ballstriking profile that theoretically fits the course, but he will be competing against players who are familiar with its nuances. The potential is there, but the baseline is genuinely uncertain.

DFS player to fade

Denny McCarthy, $8,200: His course history is noteworthy, which will attract attention. McCarthy has a second-place finish in 2025 along with two additional top 20s. The narrative of “horses for courses” will be prominent here, and at $8,200, it may seem like a good value. However, it is not.

His form in 2026 presents issues that course history cannot mask; he has missed the cut in two of his last four starts, showing inconsistency off the tee, and while he has gained in back-to-back rounds with his irons, the consistency remains questionable. Prior to that, he struggled on approach for four consecutive tournaments. He may have found some form, but he ranks outside the top 50 in scrambling and outside the top 100 in sand saves. If his irons falter, he could face significant difficulties throughout the week. The previous version of McCarthy is appealing, but it is more likely that his 2026 form will be on display.