Betting Guide for The Players Championship: Top Wagers, DFS Advice, and Additional Insights

TPC Sawgrass stands out distinctly on the PGA Tour schedule. It favors a player with comprehensive precision, one who can deliver a specific shot shape to a designated target while under continuous pressure for the entirety of 72 holes.

The Stadium Course is a haven for iron players and a challenge for those who rely on power, featuring narrow tree-lined fairways, small firm greens that are nearly impossible to hold from unfavorable angles, and water hazards on 17 of the 18 holes, ready to penalize any slight misjudgment.

The statistical profile that thrives here remains quite consistent — top-tier iron play, followed by driving accuracy, Bermuda putting, and bogey avoidance. While distance is important, it is only effective when combined with precision.

The anticipated weather conditions this week heighten these requirements. Thursday begins with winds, rain, and a possible storm in the afternoon, creating a notable disparity between morning and afternoon tee times that could influence the entire tournament.

Historical data indicates that early Thursday starters enjoy a significant advantage at Sawgrass, benefiting from smoother greens and calmer conditions before the course hardens and the wind intensifies. This week, that edge is amplified as afternoon starters will face deteriorating conditions.

By Friday, the wind will shift, and Sunday is expected to bring a high likelihood of rain with afternoon gusts, making Saturday the only clear scoring opportunity of the week. Given this, the Thursday morning tee times represent not just an advantage but potentially the most critical non-golf factor throughout the weekend.

Here are players to consider for betting and daily fantasy.

Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook (with ties) and subject to change.

Best bets

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Collin Morikawa: Top 10 (+190)

Full odds:

• Top 20 -112

• Top 10 +190

• Top 5 +385

• To win +2050

Morikawa leads the field in iron play and is the top approach player on tour. His method of marking arrows in his yardage book to chart green slopes and pinpoint no-go zones before hitting a shot is evidently beneficial. He targets specific areas within what he refers to as “fairway hallway,” managing his signature fade to precise locations.

At a course where even a slight error on approach can lead to the ball landing in water or rolling off a false front, such meticulous precision provides a true competitive edge over the competition.

His recent performance supports this assertion. Morikawa secured a victory at Pebble Beach, placed T7 at Riviera, and finished T5 at Bay Hill. That marks three consecutive top-tier results at the premier warmup courses on the schedule.

A significant advantage for Morikawa is his 8:40 a.m. tee time on Thursday, allowing him to avoid the storms predicted for the afternoon group entirely.

There are two ways to approach betting on him. Top 20 at (-112) is appealing, but you would be backing the best statistical fit for the most crucial metric at this course. The risk is justified. Alternatively, consider the Top 10 (+190), which offers value on a player well-suited to contend for the title. Top 10 represents a solid value bet.

Daniel Berger: Top 20 (+168)

Full odds:

• Top 30 +110

• Top 10 +370

• Top 5 +800

• To win +5000

His game is characterized by precision and patience, focusing on finding fairways, executing calculated iron shots, and allowing the course to unfold rather than forcing the issue. At Sawgrass, this style of play is precisely what the course rewards.

The market has not fully adjusted since Bay Hill. Berger finished 2nd, gaining nearly eight strokes on approach, one of the top results from a comparable course. He has the second earliest tee time and secured a top 20 last season despite a less favorable draw and inferior recent form compared to now.

Course history at such a unique venue is advantageous as it indicates he understands the angles, knows where to miss, and remains composed under the pressure that the 17th hole imposes on all competitors.

The market continues to factor in the injury history that sidelined him for a period. This discount provides an edge. A solid ball striker arriving off a runner-up finish with proven course history at plus money is a well-structured wager.

Jake Knapp: Top 20 (+175)

Full odds:

• Top 30 +102

• Top 10 +380

• Top 5 +810

• To win +5000

When Knapp’s driver is functioning well and his putter heats up, the course feels manageable to him. He has the scorecard history to back this up, including a round of 59 that demonstrates his potential.

He is a modern power player, ranking in the top 10 for driving distance, which at Sawgrass translates to shorter irons into greens, reachable par 5s, and birdie opportunities that are not available to other competitors. Coupled with a putting stroke that ranks 2nd on tour in strokes gained, this creates a formidable combination — a long hitter who can also convert when in form.

He has achieved five consecutive Top 11 finishes, including T6 at Riviera. This is not unfamiliar territory for him; he finished T12 at this tournament last year, indicating that his potential is not merely theoretical.

With uncertainties surrounding some of the top players, this could be a significant breakout week for Knapp. Although driving accuracy in windy conditions could pose a legitimate risk, his form, putting, and history make a plus-money bet worthwhile.

While Morikawa, Berger, and Knapp are the placement market options this week, it is important to note that all three possess win potential at Sawgrass, a course that rewards their respective strengths.

What to do with Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy

The two most prominent names in golf are absent from this betting card entirely. This is not a contrarian stance; rather, the data supports avoiding both players this week.

Scheffler is currently the top player in the world, and his overall statistics reflect that, but significant issues have arisen. He has lost strokes on approach in three consecutive tournaments, and now he enters the one event where approach play is paramount. His current iron play ranks 55th in the field. For comparison, Morikawa is first. At a course that essentially serves as a four-day examination of iron play, arriving with the worst iron stretch in over a year is a major concern, regardless of ranking. His Top 5 odds typically range from -160 to -185. The fact that it is not +100 indicates he has cooled off somewhat.

Regarding McIlroy, he is the defending champion and a two-time winner here, potentially possessing the most complete profile for Sawgrass in the field … when he is healthy. Two factors render him unplayable this week (+148 for a Top 10). First, his withdrawal at Bay Hill due to back spasms raises genuine health concerns at a course that requires full commitment on every shot. Second, and more critically, he has a 1:42 p.m. Thursday tee time. The afternoon players will contend with the worst weather conditions of the week. Reputation does not hit fairways, but tee times and health certainly do.

It is advisable to keep the clubs in the bag; adding either Scottie or Rory does not enhance your card but introduces additional risk.

Players to consider for Daily Fantasy

Ludvig Åberg, $8,700: He recently finished T3 at Bay Hill with over five strokes gained on approach. He resides in the area, is familiar with this course, and has a T8 finish here in 2024. He is likely to be highly rostered for good reason, but in large field tournaments, you want players who can excel, and Åberg’s blend of elite power, sharp iron play, and course knowledge makes him a compelling option. He presents a boom-or-bust scenario, and this week the boom potential is strong.

Jacob Bridgeman, $7,900: He is undervalued relative to his statistical profile; ranking third on approach, first in putting, and significantly cheaper than Åberg or other top-tier players. The market has not fully accounted for his Riviera victory; sportsbooks and DFS platforms are still treating him as a mid-tier option. He will likely have lower ownership than his profile warrants due to his lesser-known status. A low roster percentage combined with elite stats and a fit for Sawgrass creates an ideal DFS strategy.

Min Woo Lee, $7,500: His afternoon tee time on Thursday diminished my interest in betting on him, but for DFS, this could be advantageous. Lee’s 1:54 p.m. tee time in a storm may make him one of the least rostered legitimate contenders on the slate. This is precisely where tournament equity can be found.

He ranks in the top 10 for weighted strokes gained off the tee, around the green, and tee-to-green, finishing T2 at Pebble, T12 at Riviera, and T6 at Bay Hill. He is priced as a mid-tier option despite his stats being top 10 in the field. The unfavorable draw could hurt his floor with a real missed cut possibility if Thursday does not go well, but in DFS, you are investing in ceilings. Lee’s ceiling is a top 5 finish. Pair him with Morikawa.

DFS player to fade

Scottie Scheffler, $14,200: Yes, I am recommending to fade Scheffler once more. His price represents a lineup-destroying salary. Constructing a lineup around Scheffler necessitates sacrificing value elsewhere. This is a substantial premium for a player whose iron play, the most critical statistic on this course, has faltered at precisely the wrong moment.

His metrics simply do not justify the price tag.