UWCL quarterfinal forecasts: Can Real Madrid surprise Barcelona? Will Arsenal triumph over Chelsea?
The quarterfinals of the UEFA Women’s Champions League commence on Saturday, as the remaining eight teams compete for a spot in the final in Oslo on May 23.
The stakes are significant, but how will the four playoff victors perform against the automatic qualifiers?
Arsenal vs. Chelsea
This marks a historic encounter between English powerhouses in European football, as it is the first occasion these two clubs have faced each other in the Women’s Champions League and the first time they will compete over two legs.
Domestically, Chelsea has dominated, securing the last six Women’s Super League (WSL) titles, but Arsenal has achieved what the Blues have yet to accomplish: winning the Champions League, although they had to wait 18 years after their initial victory in 2006-07. This matchup promises to be intense, particularly with both teams aware that neither is likely to claim the WSL title this season, as they trail champions-elect Manchester City.
Key matchup: Mariona Caldentey vs. Lauren James
Lauren James has displayed outstanding form for Chelsea following her return from a lengthy rehabilitation due to recurring injuries. The club opted to prioritize her fitness over early-season results to ensure their best player was ready for crucial matches. If Chelsea can deliver the ball to James, she is poised to capitalize on opportunities against her former team with her composed and precise finishing.
To counter James, Arsenal will rely on Mariona Caldentey to maintain control in midfield, dictate the tempo, and initiate attacks for her teammates. While she is also a proficient finisher and could be pivotal on the scoresheet, her primary role will be to mitigate James’ influence while supporting Arsenal’s dynamic offense that has previously surprised Chelsea this season.
Key stat
This is the inaugural matchup between two teams from the same city in the history of UEFA women’s club competitions.
Why each team won’t win the trophy
Chelsea: Sonia Bompator’s squad is currently grappling with an injury crisis, facing a shortage of defenders and the potential absence of Sam Kerr due to her participation in the Women’s Asian Cup. Chelsea secured their first silverware of the season last weekend with a victory over Manchester United in the Women’s League Cup, but their limited squad depth may hinder their performance during this congested schedule.
Arsenal: Historically, Renée Slegers’ team has demonstrated the capability to achieve surprises in significant European matches, as seen in last year’s final against Barcelona. However, the challenge of performing consistently over two legs may prove difficult. Despite showing improved form, Arsenal faces a divided focus: they have two games in hand in the WSL, where they risk missing out on European competition for the next season, alongside their commitments in the latter stages of the FA Cup. While they might excel in single-leg matches, advancing through two-legged ties to reach the final in Oslo appears to be a considerable challenge for Arsenal.
Prediction
Chelsea 3-2 Arsenal (over two legs, likely with ET) — Emily Keogh
Real Madrid vs. Barcelona
As the Clásico approaches, the recurring question arises: Can Madrid finally overcome a dominant Barça side? The answer seemed affirmative last year when Madrid ended their long winless streak against the Blaugrana, securing a 3-1 victory at the Olympic Stadium last March. However, since then, it has been business as usual for Barça, with three wins, 10 goals scored, and none conceded. Heading into this Champions League encounter, it is challenging to foresee anything other than another Barça triumph. Nevertheless, these two matches may present a different scenario, as they are flanked by a Liga F clash between the teams, resulting in three consecutive Clásicos. Madrid must find a way to leverage this familiarity to their advantage.
Key matchup: Misa Rodríguez vs. Barça’s star-studded attack
The focus is not solely on Madrid goalkeeper Misa Rodríguez against Barça striker Ewa Pajor; it encompasses Misa against the entire Barça offense. For Madrid to succeed in this tie, she must perform at her peak, potentially needing to make double-digit saves. In 22 encounters between the two clubs, Barça has netted 75 goals. The scoring threat comes from various players, not just Poland’s Pajor, who has 23 goals across all competitions this season. Alexia Putellas and Clàudia Pina are also significant threats in the attacking third, along with Caroline Graham Hansen, Salma Paralluelo, and Kika Nazareth.
Key stat
Barça has triumphed in 21 out of 22 encounters with Madrid, scoring 75 goals while conceding only 10.
Why each team won’t win the trophy
Barcelona: Barça did not enhance their squad last summer, even losing some depth, yet they continue to perform well under Pere Romeu, with several young players like Aïcha Cámara and Clara Serrajordi stepping up. However, Arsenal demonstrated a strategy to counter them last season, and with Aitana Bonmatí sidelined due to injury, they may lack creativity in the final third against teams that defend effectively.
Real Madrid: There is no indication that Madrid is prepared to win this competition. They have yet to secure a trophy since their establishment. Although they have shown promise at times, they frequently falter against top-tier teams. Recent instances include collapsing against Arsenal in the Champions League last season, losing to Arsenal again this term, and their regular encounters with Barça. They might manage to win a single match or even a tie against a heavyweight, but it is difficult to envision them winning three consecutive matches.
Prediction
Barcelona 6-2 Real Madrid (over two legs) — Sam Marsden
Wolfsburg vs. OL Lyonnes
This matchup features two former champions eager to demonstrate that they still possess the prowess that once made them European powerhouses. Eight-time champions OL Lyonnes hold the record for the most titles, but their last victory was four years ago. While Wolfsburg reached the 2023 final, their last triumph in the competition dates back to 2014, marking over 12 years since they last won. This contest is expected to be fiercely competitive, with both teams keen to assert their dominance.
Key matchup: Lineth Beerensteyn vs. Melchie Dumornay
With both players having scored four goals, the focus will be on the teams’ leading scorers: OL Lyonnes’ Melchie Dumornay and Wolfsburg’s Lineth Beerensteyn. Dumornay has been instrumental in guiding Lyonnes to yet another knockout stage. Meanwhile, Beerensteyn has been a bright spot during a challenging Wolfsburg season that has seen the team falter in crucial matches. Although they are distinct players, whichever team can effectively involve its top scorer in key situations will likely gain the advantage and prevail in the tie.
Key stat
OL Lyonnes has made history by reaching their 17th quarterfinal, tying with Arsenal. Wolfsburg has reached 13 quarterfinals in 14 seasons.
Why each team won’t win the trophy
Wolfsburg: They are unlikely to secure the title as they may struggle to overcome OL Lyonnes. Having dropped points from winning positions multiple times this season and failing to capitalize on favorable situations—such as when Real Madrid was reduced to nine players and they could not recover from a 2-0 deficit—it will be a significant challenge for Wolfsburg to advance to the semifinals, let alone reach the final or win the competition.
OL Lyonnes: They possess the most experience and history in the competition, but their urgent desire to reclaim former glory has revealed vulnerabilities in Jonatan Giraldez’s management. These weaknesses can be exploited by the right opponent. Both potential semifinal adversaries—Chelsea or Arsenal—are aware of these flaws and can take advantage of them.
Prediction
OL Lyonnes 4-1 Wolfsburg (over two legs) — Emily Keogh
Manchester United vs. Bayern Munich
This marks Manchester United’s inaugural appearance in the Champions League, and reaching the final eight is a commendable achievement, but their journey is far from over. Although they have not met expectations in the WSL, they have excelled in Europe, securing group stage victories against Juventus, Paris Saint-Germain, Atlético Madrid, and Valerenga. Their squad has been tested, but they added new players in January—including Bayern forward Lea Schüller—and appear well-prepared to challenge their German rivals across both legs.
Bayern, on the other hand, will aim to replicate the way United conceded goals under pressure during the group stage against both OL Lyonnes and Wolfsburg. Despite starting their campaign with a 7-1 loss to Barcelona, Bayern has impressed by defeating Arsenal, Juventus, and PSG, among others. Klara Bühl and Pernille Harder have been outstanding for Bayern, and United’s defense must be at its best to contain the threats posed by the German side.
Key matchup: Julia Zigiotti Olme vs. Georgia Stanway
There are numerous intriguing matchups—United’s defense will need to contain Buhl and Harder, while Jess Park’s form will keep Bayern alert. However, the contest in the midfield is particularly compelling, where United’s Julia Zigiotti Olme is expected to face Bayern’s Georgia Stanway. Stanway will encounter several familiar faces on the opposing side, and United will hope to have Ella Toone available to compete against her Lionesses teammate.
Zigiotti Olme, who transferred to United from Bayern in 2025, has been exceptional for United this season, providing a steady and composed presence in their midfield. However, in a match expected to be closely contested, controlling the midfield will be crucial in determining which team advances.
Key stat
Klara Bühl is tied for first in the standings alongside Alessia Russo for the most combined goals and assists (nine) in the competition thus far, with eight assists and one goal. She also leads in chances created (31).
Why each team won’t win the trophy
Manchester United: This campaign may be premature for United, and this is likely where their journey will conclude. They have performed commendably in their first Champions League appearance, highlighted by a memorable victory over PSG 2-1 in November. The talents of Melvine Malard and Jess Park have been evident, and they are laying the groundwork for future progress. However, this stage may be too early for them: they have struggled against teams like Wolfsburg and OL Lyonnes, and Bayern are the favorites.
Bayern Munich: They have proven their capability to overcome WSL opponents, as evidenced by their group stage win over Arsenal, and are favored to navigate the challenging task of facing United. Their form in the Frauen-Bundesliga has been remarkable—winning 18 out of 19 matches and drawing the other. This level of dominance is reminiscent of Barcelona. However, their Champions League journey began with that 7-1 defeat to the Spanish giants. Currently, Barcelona and OL Lyonnes are leading the competition. With players like Bühl, Harder, Stanway, and Giulia Gwinn, there is potential, but claiming the title this year may be too ambitious.
Prediction
Bayern Munich 3-2 Manchester United (over two legs, with Bayern securing victory in the return leg in Munich) — Tom Hamilton
