Thrilling title contests and UEFA Champions League qualifications in the Premier League, La Liga, Scotland, and beyond
Bayern Munich holds an 11-point advantage over Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga and is on track for a potential record point total. Inter Milan is ahead of AC Milan by seven points in Serie A. Arsenal leads Manchester City by seven in the Premier League (although City has a game in hand), while Barcelona is four points clear of a notably vulnerable Real Madrid in LaLiga. PSG has a slim one-point lead over Lens in Ligue 1, but the odds still heavily favor the defending European champions for another title.
There is a possibility of an exciting title race or two among these leagues, but nothing is certain.
Regardless, one constant in soccer is the presence of depth. Whether it’s a title contest, vying for a European competition spot, or a classic relegation battle, there is always something to keep an eye on. With just over two months left in the 2025-26 season, we can expect plenty of excitement and tense moments ahead.
– UCL Talking Points: English clubs face significant challenges
– Ogden: Premier League giants must secure top-four finishes
– Connelly: Evaluating the best teams in soccer currently
Here are 15 particularly compelling races to watch. I compile a list like this each spring, and this one has a notably English flavor.
1. Scottish Premiership title
Teams involved: Hearts, Celtic, Rangers
It feels like I might be tempting fate by mentioning it, but it’s time to discuss Hearts.
When Heart of Midlothian rose to the top of the Scottish Premiership early in the season, it was easy to dismiss it as a temporary result of Celtic and Rangers’ struggles. Surely, it wouldn’t last. After all, only Scotland’s two giants have claimed a top-division title since Sir Alex Ferguson’s Aberdeen did so twice in the mid-1980s while also winning the UEFA Cup Winners’ Cup and UEFA Super Cup.
Hearts last won the title in 1959-60, have not finished second since 2005-06, and went into administration in 2013; they are primarily remembered for the heartbreak of the 1985-86 season when they needed just a draw against Dundee on the final matchday to secure the title but lost 2-0. They began this league season unbeaten in 12 matches and led at the halfway point, but Rangers have lost only one league match since appointing Danny Rohl in October, and Celtic has stabilized somewhat after their second managerial change of the season, bringing in 74-year-old Martin O’Neill as interim manager for a second time.
So, is it time for the Old Firm to reclaim dominance? Not quite! After losing two of three in February (including a 4-2 defeat to Rangers), Hearts have bounced back with two consecutive league victories, while Rangers and Celtic have each dropped points for two weeks in a row. Hearts continue to exhibit strong defensive play, receiving just enough offensive support from Claudio Braga and others, and after 29 matchdays, the standings at the top of the table are as follows:
1. Hearts – 63 points, +28 goal differential
2. Celtic – 58 points, +22
3. Rangers – 57 points, +26
With four matches remaining before the league splits into two, the top six teams will face each other one more time. In other words, the journey is far from over. If you haven’t started paying attention yet, now is the time. You won’t want to miss it if Hearts manage to pull this off.
2. The last Premier League relegation slot
Teams involved: West Ham, Nottingham Forest, Tottenham Hotspur, Leeds United
play2:25Laurens: Tudor should have resigned after Atletico Madrid defeat
Gab & Juls criticize Igor Tudor’s decisions in Tottenham’s 5-2 loss to Atletico Madrid in the Champions League.
While Wolves seem determined to execute a remarkable escape act — they have garnered eight points from their last five league matches after managing just eight in their first 25 — they remain in a 12-point deficit and are nearly certain to be relegated. Burnley, on the other hand, is in a nine-point hole. However, the battle to avoid 18th place is becoming the most morbidly captivating race in Europe.
15. Leeds United – 31 points, -11 goal differential
16. Tottenham – 29 points, -7
17. Nottingham Forest – 28 points, -15
18. West Ham United – 28 points, -19
On paper, this contest has a clear hierarchy. Opta’s supercomputer assigns West Ham a 48.8% chance of relegation, while Forest stands at 25.8%, Spurs at 18.1%, and Leeds at 7.8%. However, this overlooks an impressive trajectory. West Ham has lost only two of their last 11 matches in all competitions, having rallied effectively in 2026 under Nuno Espirito Santo.
Forest has shown signs of stabilization since hiring Vitor Pereira — their fourth manager of the season — in mid-February, defeating Fenerbahce in the Europa League knockout stage, nearly earning a point against Liverpool, and successfully securing a point against Manchester City. Continuing in the Europa League might be somewhat distracting, but their form is decent. Leeds’ form is also reasonable, and they have been unfortunate to secure only one point from their last three Premier League matches: Their expected goals differential was nearly even in all three games.
Spurs, conversely, are projecting the worst vibes in all of Europe. In their last six matches across all competitions, they have been outscored 18-6. They dismissed Thomas Frank and brought in a supposed fire-fighter in Igor Tudor, but it has not resolved anything. Tudor has made several predictable decisions in his four matches in charge, publicly emphasizing the need for toughness, seemingly prioritizing defense with some of his lineup choices, and showing a willingness to bench struggling veterans. However, every move he has made, regardless of how logical it may seem in isolation, has exacerbated the situation.
It’s easy to think that things cannot possibly worsen following Tuesday’s Champions League collapse against Atletico Madrid, but it is unfathomable that such a financially robust club has allowed matters to deteriorate to this extent, and there is no clear solution at present.
Leeds could become a key player in this race, facing both Tottenham and West Ham in May, but for now, the focus is on Spurs. They must travel to Liverpool this weekend and then host Forest in a crucial relegation six-pointer next weekend.
3. Premier League top five
Teams involved: Aston Villa, Manchester United, Chelsea, Liverpool, Brentford, Everton
With Arsenal 16 points ahead of third-place Manchester United and Manchester City nine points clear, it is reasonable to conclude that those two clubs will qualify for next year’s Champions League. (It is also safe to assume that England will comfortably secure a fifth spot in the Champions League, as will be discussed below.) This leaves three spots available for essentially these six teams:
3. Manchester United – 51 points, +11 goal differential
4. Aston Villa – 51 points, +5
5. Chelsea – 48 points, +19
6. Liverpool – 48 points, +9
7. Brentford – 44 points, +4
8. Everton – 43 points, +1
Admittedly, Brentford and Everton are slightly off the pace, with only a 10.9% chance and a 1.9% chance, respectively, of finishing in the top five according to the Opta supercomputer. However, even if or when the longshots fall short, one of the other four will, too. Who might that be?
There are 10 remaining head-to-head matches among the six teams mentioned, starting with Manchester United at Aston Villa (Sunday) and Everton at Chelsea (March 21). Two of the teams will also face Manchester City.
Whoever secures a top-five finish will have truly earned it.
4. The last Champions League bonus slot
Leagues involved: Germany, Spain, Portugal, Italy
Each week during European competitions, UEFA releases updated season performance scores for each country; the top two countries, based on average performance per team in UEFA competitions, will earn additional Champions League spots. Here are the current top averages heading into this week:
1. England – 22.3 points per team
2. Germany – 17.6
3. Spain – 17.4
4. Italy – 17.4
5. Portugal – 16.6
England not only boasts the highest average but also has all nine of its UEFA teams still active across the three tournaments (Champions League, Europa League, Europa Conference League) for at least one more week. Even with a poor week of Champions League results, a fifth bid for the Premier League is virtually assured, but the second spot remains quite uncertain. Spain has six of eight teams still competing, Germany has five of seven, Italy has four of seven (although Bologna and Roma face each other in the Europa League, so only one can progress), and Portugal has three of five.
Currently, it seems that Germany and Spain have the advantage, but every result from this point on could be significant.
5. Championship promotion playoff
Teams involved: Middlesbrough, Millwall, Ipswich Town, Hull City, Wrexham, Derby County, Southampton
play3:14Ryan Reynolds & Rob Mac not fans of VAR after Wrexham defeat
ESPN spoke with Wrexham F.C co-owners Ryan Reynolds and Rob Mac following their 4-2 defeat to Chelsea in the FA Cup.
We thought we had everything figured out. Teams promoted to the Premier League were frequently relegated back down, and teams dropping to the Championship were more likely to gain promotion again soon. The financial disparities were too significant, and inter-division parity in England seemed nonexistent.
This season, however, has turned that notion on its head. At least one of the three promoted teams (Sunderland) is almost guaranteed to remain up, and another (Leeds) is also quite likely. Meanwhile, among the top six teams in the Championship currently, only one has played in the Premier League since 2017. First-place Coventry hasn’t been in the top division since 2001, third-place Millwall hasn’t been up since 1990, when the first division was still called the First Division (and the Premier League had yet to be established), while Wrexham has never played in the top tier.
Coventry’s victory on Wednesday put them nine points ahead of third place, giving them solid odds of avoiding the four-team promotion playoff. However, in either direction, nine teams are within five points of the playoff with nine to ten matches remaining.
2. Middlesbrough – 37 games, 69 points, +22 goal differential
3. Millwall – 37 games, 68 points, +10
4. Ipswich Town – 36 games, 65 points, +26
5. Hull City – 37 games, 63 points, +6
6. Wrexham – 36 games, 57 points, +8
7. Southampton – 36 games, 54 points, +11
8. Derby County – 37 games, 54 points, +6
9. Watford – 36 games, 52 points, +4
10. Swansea – 37 games, 52 points, +0
Among last year’s relegated Premier League teams, Ipswich has bounced back from a slow start to climb to fourth; Southampton, meanwhile, has overcome several different slumps and is currently on an eight-match unbeaten run. They are now just three points shy of the top six. However, all teams involved are in solid form at present.
There is also a lot of new talent in this mix, and while Wrexham will attract significant attention due to their profile, there are many intriguing narratives here. Could Coventry finally return to the Premier League? What about Derby County, less than five years after facing severe financial troubles? Millwall? Count me in.
6. Premier League title
Teams involved: Arsenal, Manchester City
play2:11Have Arsenal lost their creative spark?
Craig Burley questions Arsenal’s attacking threat following their 1-1 draw with Bayer Leverkusen in the Champions League.
Arsenal took the lead in the Premier League on October 4 with a 2-0 victory over West Ham, and the league campaign has since taken on a “Can they maintain this lead?” narrative. Manchester City’s form has fluctuated, but Arsenal has responded effectively to every challenge — their lead over City was just two points in December, which they extended back to seven in mid-January. It dropped back to two points on February 21, and now it is back to seven again (though City has a game in hand).
1. Arsenal – 30 games, 67 points, +37 goal differential
2. Manchester City – 29 games, 60 points, +32
On paper, Arsenal is a strong favorite. Opta gives them a substantial 93.5% chance of winning the title, which is why this race does not rank among the top five. However, exactly three years ago today, they led City by five points and ultimately lost the title by five points. This Arsenal team appears different, but they must continue to prove it over the next two months.
7. LaLiga title
Teams involved: Barcelona, Real Madrid
A Barcelona-Real Madrid title race! How original! The teams that have collectively won 64 Spanish titles (and 54 runner-up finishes) are once again separated from the rest of the LaLiga field despite injuries and, in Real Madrid’s case, a widely publicized managerial dismissal. Real Madrid briefly held the lead in February, but consecutive league losses for the Blancos allowed Barcelona to reclaim the top spot.
1. Barcelona – 67 points, +46 goal differential
2. Real Madrid – 63 points, +33
Barcelona is currently in excellent form and has established a small cushion — Opta currently assigns them a 79% chance of winning the title compared to Real Madrid’s 21%. However, attention is already turning to May 10, when Barcelona will host El Clasico. Both teams must face third-place Atletico on either side of the upcoming international break, so dropping points now would be unwise.
play1:33Moreno: Valverde has elevated himself to ‘legendary status’ at Real Madrid
Alejandro Moreno comments on Federico Valverde’s hat trick that propelled Real Madrid past Manchester City in the first leg of their Champions League matchup.
