Reevaluation of Premier League Teams: Manchester United Improved, Arsenal Enhanced Further

Last October feels like it was five years ago at this stage.

When we last published these rankings, two weeks prior to Halloween, Crystal Palace’s Oliver Glasner had just been awarded manager of the month for September. Ruben Amorim was in the midst of steering Manchester United through a period that would earn him the manager of the month title for October. He was succeeded by Enzo Maresca, whose Chelsea secured three victories and one draw in November.

Now, we find ourselves in early February. Both Maresca and Amorim have been dismissed by their respective clubs, and Glasner has announced his intention to depart from his position. Additionally, the current reigning manager of the month is Unai Emery, who is at the helm of the team we ranked 13th during our last assessment.

A significant amount has transpired over the past three-and-a-half months, prompting us to return and analyze the situation in the only manner we know: by ranking every Premier League team, from 1 to 20.

The updated Premier League team rankings

Our updated rankings — a synthesis of the individual assessments from Bill and Ryan — are presented alongside the previous rankings from October, along with each team’s current points total and goal differential in the Premier League standings.

Arsenal: Still the top team, and potentially improving

Here’s the concerning aspect regarding Arsenal: they are the best team globally, and they could very well become even stronger.

If we exclude penalties and set pieces, this is how the teams in the Premier League rank based on their expected-goal differential:

In fact, this aligns closely with what markets and projection systems anticipated before the season: Arsenal and Liverpool vying for the top position, with Manchester City trailing just slightly.

But what if we consider only free kicks, corners, and throw-ins? Well …

When everything is combined, Arsenal has clearly been the top team in the Premier League throughout the first 24 matches:

If you’re curious why most Premier League teams have become fixated on the moments when the ball goes out of play or the referee blows the whistle, this is your explanation: it can elevate a team from being one of the best in the Premier League to being the undisputed number one.

Or: it can help establish a six-point lead over the second-place team, despite the fact that the three forwards on your roster have collectively scored six non-penalty goals in the league this season. Kai Havertz and Gabriel Jesus have made a combined two starts in the league this season, with Jesus netting two non-penalty goals.

The initial plan for the season did not involve Jesus playing a significant role, but the same cannot be said for Havertz, who has yet to score in the league. He has recently returned from a long-term injury, and the team consistently performs better when he is on the field — regardless of whether he is scoring goals. He is a valuable player who contributes in various ways.

Of course, Havertz was expected to take on a more secondary role this season after the club invested heavily to acquire Viktor Gyökeres from Sporting Lisbon over the summer. Gyökeres has scored four non-penalty goals and recorded zero assists across 18 starts. Despite logging considerable minutes, he ranks 34th in the league for non-penalty expected goals and assists.

When examining the statistics on a per-90 basis, Gyökeres’ underlying attacking performance is roughly comparable to that of Mikel Merino, last season’s emergency striker who was not intended to play that position again after the club signed Gyökeres. Yet, Gyökeres has faced Tottenham, the Manchester clubs, Chelsea, and Liverpool six times so far, managing only one shot in those encounters.

While Arsenal’s slower tempo and the current tactical landscape of the Premier League have both made it more challenging for their forwards to score, six non-penalty goals from their center forwards is essentially the worst-case scenario for a club with Arsenal’s aspirations. Nevertheless, their defense is exceptionally strong, their other attackers are highly skilled, their midfield is dependable, and their set-piece efficiency is extraordinary, which has mitigated the impact of this issue.

This is why it is easier to envision Arsenal improving rather than declining.

If Havertz and Jesus begin to play more frequently and perform as they have in the past, they will both represent significant upgrades over Gyökeres. While it may be less likely for a player already well into his peak years, Gyökeres could also enhance his performance moving forward. (Several other major signings from this past summer, particularly Liverpool’s Florian Wirtz and Tottenham’s Xavi Simons, have recently stepped up their game.) Alternatively, if none of this occurs, Arsenal could simply acquire another striker in the summer, which would immediately enhance the team.

The only reason there remains any semblance of a title race is that Arsenal is not receiving consistent output from the player in the center of their front three. If they ever do, it may be a long time before another team catches up with them at the top. — Ryan O’Hanlon

Finally: The resurgence of Manchester United

In recent years, as we have conducted these reranking articles, we have seldom had a reason to say anything positive about Manchester United.

• “Everton and Manchester United: a tale of two underachievers.”

• “Manchester United: the epitome of mediocrity.”

• “Man United haven’t resolved any issues yet.”

• And my personal favorite: “Manchester United: Still struggling significantly.”

It is never personal — it is simply the reality when a club that once dominated the Premier League finds itself dropping to eighth in the standings one year, then to 15th the next.

However, United climbed from 11th to eighth in our October rerank, and despite the timely dismissal of Ruben Amorim in early January, they have made further progress in the months that followed. They achieved back-to-back victories over Manchester City and Arsenal under interim coach Michael Carrick, and even prior to that, they had lost only twice in league play since September, with their expected goals differential for the season ranking third.

This is a demonstrably solid team, boasting a 49.1% chance of finishing in the top five (and likely securing a Champions League spot) according to the Opta supercomputer, and a 59.3% chance per xStandings.

Carrick’s sample size is too limited for rigorous statistical evaluation, and they have won these last three matches with sheer directness — scoring eight goals while averaging only 19 touches per match in the opponent’s box (opponents average 29.7). There has been an element of good fortune during this streak, with Bryan Mbeumo, Matheus Cunha, and Patrick Dorgu combining for six goals from shots worth 2.2 xG.

However, the results have not solely been a matter of luck. Casemiro has appeared very comfortable at the base of Carrick’s 4-2-3-1 formation, and we knew from his time at Brentford that Mbeumo excels in transition.

Whether through Amorim’s three-at-the-back strategy or Carrick’s modifications, United has been the most effective quick-strike team in the Premier League this season. They rank fifth in ball recoveries, but first in both shots (15) and goals scored from ball recoveries (five); they are fourth in high turnovers created, but first in goals scored from them (16).

They have taken the most first-time shots in the league (207) — indicating that they identify openings and immediately attempt to capitalize on them. While their defense is still not particularly disruptive or physical, they have eliminated their previous tendency to allow opponents numerous shot attempts: per possession, they currently rank second in shots and fourth in shots allowed.

play1:33Ogden: Carrick’s success is creating a problem for Man United’s hierarchy

Mark Ogden believes Manchester United will soon need to make a decision regarding Michael Carrick’s future.

Many in our profession have tried to quickly turn this positive three-match stretch into “Are United title contenders?!” headlines, and … no. They are not. They are 12 points behind Arsenal with 14 matches remaining, and their title odds are well below 1%.

However, fans should view this as a positive development. The daily experience of being a Manchester United supporter appears to be existentially draining, a continuous cycle of overreaction and resetting of expectations.

Indeed, they have a Champions League spot to compete for — and certainly the “Should Carrick be appointed as the permanent manager?!” headlines will persist if they continue to perform well* — but at this moment, they are playing enjoyable, fast-paced, entertaining, and somewhat sustainable football. For the time being, that should suffice.

(*My personal view: Sure, appoint him as the permanent manager. It seems reasonable. He is intelligent, former holding midfielders can become excellent coaches, he had a decent tenure at Middlesbrough, and those who frequently err believe it is a poor idea, plus, the manager’s influence is not as significant as it once was, right?) — Bill Connelly

Brentford and Aston Villa have revitalized their seasons

At the time of the previous rerank, Aston Villa and Brentford were positioned 13th and 16th, respectively, in the Premier League standings and ranked 13th and 14th on our list. Villa struggled to create adequate scoring opportunities (ranking 16th in goals and 19th in xG created at that time), while Brentford had difficulty preventing opponents from scoring (16th in goals allowed, 14th in xG allowed).

However, the situation has changed quite significantly since then:

Villa has matched Arsenal with 37 points over the last 17 matchdays, while Brentford has been surpassed only by Villa, Arsenal, and the Manchester clubs. Have they actually been among the five best teams during this period? Probably not. Villa’s plus-10 goal differential in these 17 matches has stemmed from an xG differential of plus-0.6, and they have managed to win six games (with three draws) in matches where they had a negative xG differential. That is quite difficult to maintain.

Brentford, on the other hand, has adopted a beautifully high-variance style: In this 17-match sample, they have won seven matches by at least two goals and lost five matches by at least two goals. A high-variance strategy is wise for a team with limited resources, but it does not ensure reliability. Brentford has triumphed over Liverpool, Villa, and Newcastle during this period while losing to Nottingham Forest and securing only one point from two matches against Spurs (who, as noted above, have not accumulated many points in this timeframe).

Villa has done an excellent job of accumulating points recently, even if some good fortune has played a role. The Premier League is highly likely to secure a fifth Champions League spot this season through the coefficient table across Europe — and Villa, with 46 points, is as close to first-place Arsenal (53) as they are to sixth-place Liverpool (39).

However, Villa currently faces a couple of different challenges. First, they may soon experience retribution from the god of xG:

Even with an unlikely result on Sunday — they lost 1-0 to Brentford despite an xG differential of +2.0 — they possess the largest discrepancy in the league between their xGD and their position in the standings. They benefited from an exceptional finishing streak from Morgan Rogers, leading to a series of favorable results (from Nov. 23 to Dec. 21, he scored six goals while attempting shots worth just 2.1 xG). During this period, they won six consecutive matches, all by a single goal. Sunday’s result may have marked the beginning of a statistical reckoning.

Even more concerning than the statistics are the injuries in midfield. There are numerous injuries. Boubacar Kamara is out for the season (knee), Youri Tielemans (ankle) and John McGinn (knee) are sidelined for several more weeks, Ross Barkley (knee) is unavailable, and Amadou Onana’s minutes are being managed due to muscle fatigue.

Villa made three signings during the January transfer window, but only one — Juventus loanee Douglas Luiz, who was with Villa through 2023-24 — is primarily a midfielder. Villa’s next three league matches are against the teams ranked ninth through 11th above. Depending on the performance of a makeshift midfield, all three matches are both winnable and losable.

Villa made some short-term moves in January to theoretically bolster their top-five chances, but Brentford, conversely, is not focused on short-term gains.

Brentford’s only January acquisition was 18-year-old forward Kaye Furo, who had played only 89 league minutes for Club Brugge this season — this is the opposite of a win-now transaction. They are committed to working with the squad they have, and recently it has been quite effective. They have scored 14 goals in their last eight league matches, even with Kevin Schade experiencing a minor finishing slump — since a Dec. 27 hat trick against Bournemouth, he has not scored despite generating shots worth 1.8 xG.

In these last eight matches, Brentford has attempted 26 shots worth at least 0.2 xG (the highest in the league) while allowing only 12 (the sixth-fewest). This team is not designed to generate a high volume of shots, but if you are taking all the good shots, you will create opportunities. Interestingly, despite hiring prolific set-piece coach Keith Andrews as their manager — and competing in a league currently dominated by set pieces — they have achieved most of their success in open play.

Opta’s supercomputer now gives the Bees a 42% chance of finishing in the top seven, which would likely secure them a first-ever spot in a European competition. However, the next three matches will significantly influence those odds, one way or another: they will visit Newcastle on Saturday, then host Arsenal and Brighton. — Connelly

What has happened to Crystal Palace?

Let me take you back to mid-October, when we last conducted these rankings. It was a time when three Premier League teams had a non-penalty xG differential of plus-4 or better: Arsenal, Manchester City, and Crystal Palace.

Sure, Palace had lost Eberechi Eze to Arsenal, but it seemed to have little impact. This team was among the top sides in the Premier League during the latter half of last season, and the first seven matches of this season did not indicate otherwise. They defeated Aston Villa, 3-0, and then created nearly 3.0 xG worth of chances in an exciting 2-1 victory against Liverpool. With the possibility of five Premier League teams qualifying for the Champions League, Palace appeared to be the most likely outsider to join the fray.

By early December, they were indeed joining the party. A 2-1 victory over Fulham propelled them into fourth place, and they were not fortunate to be there, either. After 15 matches, only Arsenal, Manchester City, and Liverpool had better xG differentials.

So, can you guess how many games they have won since then? The answer is zero.

In their last nine matches, they have drawn three and lost six. As illustrated by some of the charts in the Arsenal section, Palace’s overall performance level still appears quite good. However, here is how the league ranks based on non-penalty xG differential and goal differential from the most recent 10-game stretch:

As shown, it is impossible to transition from being in the top four with supporting metrics that validate it to going winless in nine matches without two factors occurring: (1) a decline in performance level and (2) unfavorable outcomes. Palace has performed at a league-average level over the last 10 games