Messi to Dowman: Identifying the top player globally at each age group.

“Who is the best soccer player in the world?” used to be a straightforward question.

It was Lionel Messi.

Now, even though each year a player from either Real Madrid or Barcelona may act as if they’ve been unjustly treated due to not securing the top spot in Ballon d’Or voting, it has become more engaging to explore this topic. The identity of the world’s best player is not clear-cut, and it can shift annually, if not monthly.

However, there will be ample opportunity for discussion, particularly since it is a World Cup year. As always, we will strive to reconcile two opposing beliefs: (1) that soccer is a multifaceted, evolving sport influenced by the interaction of the diverse skill sets of a team’s 11 players, and (2) that the squad that triumphs in the World Cup must possess the best soccer player globally.

For the moment, though, I wish to pose a different inquiry: Who is the top player in the world — across all age groups?

To provide this analysis with greater longevity and coherence, I have categorized players by their birth year. So, from those born in 2009 to those born in 1987, who stands out as the best in each category?

2009: Max Dowman, winger, Arsenal

This choice may appear evident because, well, yes …

Not only is 16-year-old Max Dowman the youngest goal scorer in Premier League history, but he achieved this by netting that goal for the top team in England and arguably the best team in the world. He went coast-to-coast against a side that recently defeated Chelsea 3-0, and he sports the same wispy mustache I had when my father humorously remarked, “Did you just drink grape soda?” thus subjecting me to years of therapy.

Considering that Dowman is two complete World Cup cycles away from entering his prime — he will be 24 in 2034 — there shouldn’t be anyone in his age group near his level … right?

Well, there is a 16-year-old in Germany named Kennet Eichhorn who has already accumulated 20 times the first-team minutes as Dowman and is doing so in a significantly more demanding role.

One reason we often see many of the youngest players emerge as attackers is that mistakes are less consequential higher up the field. However, an error at, say, center midfield, could quickly lead to a counter-attack for the opposing team. While attackers are the most valuable players in the sport, the thresholds for a coach’s trust are considerably higher the closer you are to your own goal.

Eichhorn, however, has played over 800 minutes at defensive midfield for Hertha Berlin this season — and he has been sidelined with an injury since January. Perhaps if Dowman were playing for a second-division club, he would be logging significantly more minutes than he has for Arsenal. Conversely, if Eichhorn had come through the academy at a Champions League club, he might still be receiving more minutes than Dowman.

There’s no definitive way to ascertain this, and it doesn’t truly matter beyond the scope of this specific analysis. But if there’s one manager who meticulously considers the risks posed by his attackers, it’s Mikel Arteta, and he continues to grant Dowman playing time. Therefore, we are giving Dowman a slight advantage.

play0:53Mikel Arteta calls for calm around ‘incredible’ Max Dowman

Mikel Arteta discusses Max Dowman following his performance for Arsenal against Everton in the Premier League.

2008: Lennart Karl, attacking midfield, Bayern Munich

This selection is much more straightforward. Bayern Munich may be the best team globally, and Karl has started 20 matches across the Bundesliga and Champions League. Karl, who turned 18 last month, has scored eight goals and provided seven assists.

We don’t require advanced statistics here; logging that many minutes at such a young age for Bayern is the strongest indicator of future success. Additionally, Karl is averaging 0.79 non-penalty expected goals plus assists per 90 minutes — a world-class figure for an attacking midfielder.

2007: Lamine Yamal, winger, Barcelona

What more can be said about 18-year-old Yamal that hasn’t already been mentioned?

play1:20How Yamal reached 50 career goals quicker than Ronaldo and Messi

Gab & Juls respond to Lamine Yamal scoring his 50th career goal in Barcelona’s victory over Athletic Club.

2006: Warren Zaïre-Emery, midfielder, Paris Saint-Germain

The players born in 2006 illustrate the unpredictability of young-player development. Numerous factors influence how any individual evolves, and this is evident among several players born two decades ago.

Recall when Endrick was touted as the next Pele? Then none of the Real Madrid coaches wanted him? He subsequently went on loan to Lyon and quickly resumed scoring and assisting goals.

Or consider Myles Lewis-Skelly. He was starting for Arsenal and England at this time last year, then Arsenal acquired a couple more towering fullbacks over the offseason, the Premier League suddenly prioritized size and speed, and now MLS has started one Premier League match and is unlikely to make Thomas Tuchel’s World Cup roster.

Conversely, we have Yan Diomande, who was playing high school soccer in Florida four years ago and is now possibly the most sought-after player in his age group worldwide. In his first year with RB Leipzig, Diomande is doing what everyone desires: outpacing defenders on the wing and converting those opportunities into actual goals and assists. In a vacuum, he would likely command the highest salary on the open market among those born in 2006.

However, considering all we’ve discussed, I prefer to take a more cautious approach when making any player projections and evaluations, so we are selecting the 20-year-old who ranks second in total career minutes played in Europe’s Big Five leagues among all players currently 20 or younger:

Playing for PSG in Ligue 1 does not equate to playing for Real Madrid or Manchester City, due to the general lack of competitiveness in the French league. But WZE — is this a term? It should be. Anyway, WZE broke into the PSG lineup three years ago, and his minutes have increased each season. Perhaps, in some cases, development is indeed linear.

2005: Désiré Doué, winger, Paris Saint-Germain

I nearly opted against selecting the player who scored two goals and provided an assist in last season’s Champions League final.

Doué, who will turn 21 this summer, has only played around 900 minutes in Ligue 1 this season and has started just four additional matches in the Champions League. His longer history of production hasn’t quite aligned with what we witnessed against Inter last year, but he has consistently accumulated valuable minutes for four seasons now, and we already know he is capable of starting for a truly elite team.

I’m not entirely convinced the same applies to Arda Güler, as I’m still uncertain about how effective Real Madrid has been at any point this season, but he is enjoying a breakout year and is already among the best passers in the world. Passing is generally a skill that develops with experience, and players who excel at moving the ball at his age tend to have very successful careers.

2004: João Neves, midfielder, Paris Saint-Germain

The 21-year-old Neves first joined PSG in 2024 on a five-year contract. A couple of statistics:

• Champions League title win rate for PSG in all full seasons prior to signing João Neves: 0%

• Champions League title win rate for PSG in all full seasons since signing João Neves: 100%

2003: Jude Bellingham, midfielder, Real Madrid

I am uncertain if he will ever replicate his inaugural season in Madrid. In fact, I doubt he ever will. Despite functioning as a de facto midfielder, he scored or assisted a goal every 90 minutes, as Madrid secured LaLiga and their 15th Champions League title.

In other words, we have witnessed Jude Bellingham as the top player on the best soccer team in the world. There is a very limited group of individuals we can attribute that to, and an even smaller group who achieved it at the age of 20. Bellingham is now 22, so he still has ample time to attempt again.

2002: Pedri, midfielder, Barcelona

Here is the list of players across the Big Five leagues this season who have received a 90-or-better rating from Gradient Sports for passing and carrying:

• Pedri

That’s the complete list.

At 23, Pedri has yet to reach his peak.

2001: Michael Olise, winger, Bayern Munich

Bayern has entered the PSG territory: they are so far superior to everyone else in their league that we must be cautious about the performance of all their players in the Bundesliga until we see it translate to success in Europe.

PSG exited this zone last season — largely due to the arrival of Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, who is also a 2001. However, Bayern remains in this position, partly because they were overwhelmed earlier in the season by Arsenal, led by Bukayo Saka, another member of the class of 2001.

So, why is 24-year-old Olise ranked ahead of both? Well, averaging more than a goal-plus-assist per 90 minutes places you in the realm of Messi and Ronaldo. Olise achieved that last year, and he is doing it again this year, at an even higher rate: from 1.04 to 1.28. The latter currently leads Europe.

Of course, those statistics are significantly enhanced by Bayern’s Bundesliga dominance, but do you recall what happened the last time we saw Olise competing in a different league? He averaged 1.06 goals+assists per 90 minutes — for Crystal Palace, in the Premier League. That was over approximately 1,200 minutes, but the last two seasons indicate that it wasn’t a fluke.

A simpler rationale for why I am placing Olise here: There is a possibility that he is the best soccer player in the world at this moment, and I wouldn’t assert the same for Kvara or Saka.

2000: Erling Haaland, forward, Manchester City

Something appears to be amiss with 25-year-old Haaland. His career has been a nearly mechanical progression of effective goal-scoring — unaffected by the talent of his teammates, the challenges posed by his opponents, or anything other than his own body occasionally failing him.

However, he has only netted five goals since the beginning of 2026, and the simplest explanation — and the most probable explanation — is that he is dealing with an injury.

Even with a slight decrease in output, he is still outpacing his peers:

Vitinha, Vinícius Júnior, and Dominik Szoboszlai are all excellent players, but let’s be real. Goals determine matches, and he is twice the goal-scorer of anyone else his age.

1999: Declan Rice, midfielder, Arsenal

This could have been an intriguing discussion if Alexander Isak hadn’t suffered a leg injury, but this is the simplest choice since Lamine Yamal. No other midfielder excels in every facet of playing midfield, let alone any other 27-year-old:

Moreover, he is also one of the most physically dominant players at his position.

Gradient tracks an “Athleticism” score — a combination of speed, stamina, and explosiveness, adjusted for position and size — and Rice scores a 90.6 out of 100.

1998: Kylian Mbappe, forward, Real Madrid

Alright, I admit. I appreciate Federico Valverde as much as anyone outside of his immediate family, but this choice was simpler than Declan Rice. At 27 years old, Mbappe has been among the top players in the world since his teenage years.

1997: Ousmane Dembélé, forward, PSG

I consistently predict France to win the World Cup whenever someone inquires. A straightforward way to summarize it: Michael Olise, Kylian Mbappe, and Ousmane Dembélé are all French. Dembélé, 28, is the reigning Ballon d’Or winner, and one could argue that he is the least impressive of the three.

Now, I wouldn’t make that argument. When fit, he is the best player in the world — a claim I made last year. He is exceptional with both feet, his off-ball movement, dribbling, passing, and finishing are world-class, and he is willing to press vigorously. However, he is, of course, almost never healthy.

1996: Raphinha, winger, Barcelona

This really hinges on where you believe Rodri stands at this moment. Let’s compare his Gradient metrics from this season …

… to his Ballon d’Or-winning season:

That aligns with expectations, right? The passing remains intact, but all the more physical elements of his game haven’t rebounded.

Raphinha, on the other hand, is still a 98th percentile athlete according to Gradient’s physical metrics, and he is scoring and assisting goals at the same rate as last season, when he finished fifth in Ballon d’Or voting.

What I appreciate about 29-year-old Raphinha is that he can adapt to virtually any team in the world: he can serve as your primary scorer and creator, he can be the weakside winger making off-ball runs, and he is among the best pressers globally, so you don’t need to implement any systematic changes to accommodate him in the squad.

1995: Joshua Kimmich, midfielder, Bayern Munich

There is a notable decline from 1996 to