With four World Cup championships, which ranks them tied for the second-most in FIFA history, Italy possesses a significant legacy in international soccer. Considering their extensive background in the sport, well-established brand, and a promising group of young players, the Azzurri’s odds of 30-1 to secure victory in the 2026 World Cup — tied for the 10th-best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook — appears reasonable at first glance.
However, there is one major issue: Italy has yet to qualify for the World Cup.
After failing to qualify directly for the third consecutive cycle, the Italians must overcome Northern Ireland on Thursday, followed by either Wales or Bosnia and Herzegovina on March 31 to secure a spot in the main draw through the UEFA playoffs.
Italy is a -350 favorite on the three-way money line against Northern Ireland and is -175 to qualify overall. Nonetheless, considering that the Azzurri did not qualify for the World Cup from this position in their last two attempts, it raises questions about how sportsbooks are placing them in the same odds category as teams like Colombia (40-1), Belgium (30-1), and Norway (25-1), who contributed significantly to Italy’s current situation.
“They are quite an interesting case. Clearly, on paper, they remain a very strong team and are certainly among the top teams at the World Cup. They have a competent manager in [Gennaro] Gattuso and a solid core within the squad,” Caesars Sportsbook soccer lead Mark Bickerdike stated to ESPN. “Their recent World Cup record has been rather inconsistent. They failed to qualify for the last two tournaments, and in 2010 and 2014, they did not advance past the group stages. So, their recent performance has been somewhat troubled, particularly after their triumph in 2006.”
Nonetheless, Bickerdike emphasized that Italy’s power rating is determined by the overall quality of the current squad. BetMGM trading manager Seamus Magee agrees, stating in an email, “They are a top-15 team in the world, in my view, which is justified given their roster.”
Bickerdike elaborated on Caesars’ approach to developing its World Cup futures board, which begins with its top choice, Spain, and pits it against all other teams in simulations. Using this method, Italy is assessed as “three-quarters of a goal weaker than Spain.” The model then conducts simulations for the remainder of the tournament, generating probabilities for each team to win the tournament, secure their respective group, and more.
The bookmaker emphasizes that he does not wish to become overly focused on Italy’s global appeal and instead aims to concentrate on the data. With an event like the World Cup — particularly the 2026 edition that will feature the largest number of teams ever — funds will be distributed among a wide array of squads, making it essential to set the right odds regardless of intangible factors.
This indicates that Italy’s position as a top-10 team in the World Cup according to the odds is based on how bookmakers perceive their potential for the tournament, even considering their need to qualify for the main draw first.
The betting activity also roughly corresponds with how sportsbooks are evaluating Italy. Caesars and DraftKings both report that the Azzurri have received the 12th-most bets to win the World Cup, while BetMGM ranks them ninth in terms of bets and handle share. DraftKings Sportsbook director Johnny Avello expects heightened interest in Italy, assuming they qualify for the tournament.
“Italy’s history and international reputation will resonate with both bettors and bookmakers, especially for an event like the World Cup,” he noted in an email. “If they qualify, anticipate strong public support and shorter odds.”
Bickerdike mentions that some betting activity could reduce the odds for the Italians, but he expects more interest in Spain (+450 at DraftKings), France (+550), Portugal (11-1), and, of course, the United States (65-1) on home turf.
