They were referred to as “The Billion Generation.” A collection of attacking talent, particularly three young players, who emerged from the youth system at Palmeiras in Brazil and were anticipated to achieve significant success. But what would that success entail?
The terminology holds significance. This group of athletes — Endrick, Luis Guilherme, and Estêvão — was not named for the senior trophies they were expected to secure for the São Paulo club. It was presumed they would not stay long enough to accumulate much silverware. However, they were expected to generate a considerable sum for the club’s finances.
The “one billion” denotes the amount — in Brazilian currency — that Palmeiras anticipated receiving from major European clubs. This reflects the current market dynamics, where South America’s top talents are quickly transferred across the Atlantic. Part of this trend was established by the transfer of Vinícius Júnior.
It seemed almost irrational nearly a decade ago when Real Madrid announced they would invest around £40 million in a 16-year-old winger from Flamengo, a club in Rio. They would have to wait until he turned 18 to sign Vinícius, and at the time the agreement was made, he had yet to play a senior match. However, what appeared to be folly in 2016 soon revealed itself as a brilliant decision.
Vinícius became a pivotal player as Real Madrid expanded their UEFA Champions League victories, and in retrospect, it seemed as though the Spanish club had acquired one of the most thrilling players in the world at a bargain price.
Top European clubs were eager to secure South American talents as early as possible, as it would facilitate their adaptation if they could be shaped from the outset. The success of Real’s deal for Vinícius confirmed their strategy. Thus, it was Vinícius who helped pave the way for the Palmeiras “One Billion Generation.”
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Endrick: Great potential but with unfortunate timing
Indeed, Endrick followed a similar path, joining Real Madrid at 18. The Palmeiras striker had an edge over his Flamengo counterpart. Vinícius was still relatively inexperienced when he turned 18 and made the transition. He was very much a “promise” rather than a “reality,” requiring a brief apprenticeship with Real Madrid Castilla before being promoted.
In contrast, Endrick was already a proven talent. He had secured a senior title with Palmeiras; he was instrumental in their late-season surge to overtake Botafogo and win the Brazilian Serie A in 2023. Additionally, he was a Brazil international with a notable record. He netted the only goal in their victory over England at Wembley in March 2024, and shortly after, he scored again in a draw with Spain at his future home, the Santiago Bernabéu.
So why is he not currently at the Bernabéu? Why is Endrick on loan at Lyon in France? The straightforward answer is that there is limited space for players to excel at Real Madrid. Unfortunately, Endrick’s timing was not ideal.
The then-coach Carlo Ancelotti had adapted to the absence of Karim Benzema by creating a team without a designated center forward. Vinícius had his best season cutting in and exploiting space in the penalty area. Ancelotti may not have even favored the acquisition of Kylian Mbappé, which has clearly introduced tactical and psychological challenges.
However, the club can make signings based on media visibility as much as on sporting merit. Consequently, Endrick found himself surplus to requirements. He had joined a club that did not genuinely need him. While his statistics were solid when he did play, those chances were infrequent.
This has led to another issue. Vinícius was less seasoned when he made his move, but it was clear what type of player he would become: A right-footed winger who would cut in from the left at high speed. Life can be more challenging for central strikers now. Many who would naturally fit a 4-4-2 formation struggle to adapt to a system that offers only one position for a traditional striker.
Endrick faces this challenge of definition. Is he a No. 9? His stature might be a concern, and he also enjoys dropping deep to carry the ball. However, he is not truly a winger. Now under Ancelotti’s guidance with Brazil, he was encouraged to secure a loan move to both play and develop his skills. Thus, the transition to Lyon, where the striker aims to re-enter the Brazil squad in time for the World Cup.
Estêvão: Adjusting well despite different circumstances
Estêvão was observing and absorbing knowledge. Nine months younger than Endrick, their paths only briefly intersected in Palmeiras’ first team. Estêvão was vying for a first-team position during the last two months of Endrick’s tenure at the club, but he has undoubtedly taken the lead since then.
Having made his first Brazil start in Ancelotti’s inaugural match as coach, Estêvão is emerging as a crucial component of the starting lineup in Brazil’s pursuit of the long-awaited sixth World Cup title. How has Estêvão managed to surpass Endrick? One explanation is straightforward: sheer talent.
Estêvão is arguably the most thrilling player to emerge from Brazil since Neymar. Palmeiras is coached by Abel Ferreira, who had a lengthy career as a right back in Portugal before transitioning to coaching. At one point, he publicly urged Palmeiras not to transfer Estêvão too soon, and he struggled to contain his enthusiasm when he described the player as “different from anything I have ever seen.”
Estêvão, therefore, is a genuinely generational talent. However, there is another aspect. His move to Europe has not hindered his career; it has propelled it forward. He had the opportunity to choose among Europe’s elite clubs. Yet — which is quite rare for a Brazilian forward — he opted against Real Madrid and Barcelona.
There appear to be two reasons for selecting Chelsea. One was articulated by his agent last year; the London club was willing to view him not just as a winger but also as a player capable of moving inside to play in the No. 10 position. That, particularly with Cole Palmer in the mix, represents a long-term project. In the short term, however, there was an even more compelling reason. He was virtually assured of playing time.
There is a downside to joining Chelsea. Turmoil seems to be part of the environment at Stamford Bridge. In the history of English football, five times a coach has been dismissed after winning two trophies in the previous season. Each instance occurred at Chelsea, and with Enzo Maresca being replaced by Liam Rosenior, Estêvão is already on his second coach in his newly begun European journey.
An element of conflict is inherent in the current model of the club, which appears to prioritize both the development of young players and the pursuit of trophies.
The crucial factor for Estêvão, however, is that he is participating and excelling in high-level European football. Indeed, there is some concern among fans regarding his playing time. This, however, should not pose a significant issue for the player. An excess of matches now might diminish his sharpness leading up to the World Cup, and he will want to maintain that early-season vigor, having already scored five goals for Brazil between September and November as a Chelsea player.
This is an alarming statistic. It took Vinícius approximately five years and 30 matches to reach the milestone of five goals for his national team.
Luis Guilherme: Burden of expectation, aiming to rebound
And speaking of Vinícius, West Ham United may have hoped they had their own version of the Real Madrid winger when they acquired Luis Guilherme in the summer of 2024. The third member of Palmeiras’ “Billion Generation,” Luis Guilherme certainly contributed to the club’s finances. The Hammers reportedly paid around £25m for his services, a decision they likely now regret.
Fast and powerful, left-footed but typically playing on the right, Luis Guilherme appeared promising in the green of Palmeiras. However, West Ham gained little from his presence.
He participated in a total of 17 Premier League matches, serving primarily as a non-impact substitute, and the Hammers were probably relieved to recover some of their investment when they recently transferred him to Sporting CP.
Does this imply he is a poor player? Not at all. It is essential to consider his age. Luis Guilherme may be the eldest of the trio, but he does not turn 20 until next month.
He was signed as a young talent, entirely based on potential. He had scored only one senior goal — a stunning strike that secured a critical Copa Libertadores match away to Ecuador’s Independiente del Valle — but it seemed a tenuous basis for such a substantial expenditure.
The transfer fee placed undue pressure on the player. Luis Guilherme lacks the extraordinary finesse of Estêvão and quickly encountered a challenge. His strengths are power and explosive speed. However, he now found himself in a more compact style of play, offering less room for acceleration, against defenders who were quicker and stronger than those he had previously faced.
He would inevitably require time to adapt to all of this, which is difficult when bearing the weight of a significant transfer fee. A fresh start is likely the best outcome for all parties involved, and he still has time to make a comeback.
His journey, along with those of the other two, highlights the risks associated with the notion of the “Billion Generation.” It transforms young men into commodities. Beyond the challenges of fitting into a different style of play, there are also issues of adaptation, as the young players navigate life in a new country with a different language, culture, and climate.
It is almost certain that not all will succeed. However, nothing will deter European clubs in their pursuit of South American talent.
