Arsenal’s championship chances decline as Manchester City moves forward before important Premier League clash.

On April 1, Arsenal seemed to be on track for their first Premier League title since the iconic 2003-04 “Invincibles” season. The Gunners held a nine-point advantage over Manchester City at the top of the standings with just seven matches remaining, leading to odds of -1400 for the championship, as indicated by DraftKings Sportsbook.

However, Arsenal entered into one of the notorious April downturns that have regrettably characterized manager Mikel Arteta’s time in charge. Initially, City defeated Arsenal in the Carabao Cup on March 22, followed by the Gunners’ elimination from the FA Cup on April 4 due to a surprising defeat against Southampton. Although these outcomes did not directly affect Arsenal’s title aspirations, a significant setback occurred a week later when they lost a home league match to Bournemouth, a team currently situated in the lower half of the table.

The reaction from sportsbooks was immediate. As the weekend of April 11 approached, the Gunners were at -1000 to secure the Premier League title, but their defeat to Bournemouth quickly reduced their odds to -250. The situation worsened when Manchester City, closely trailing Arsenal in second place, convincingly defeated Chelsea the following day, pushing Arsenal’s odds further to -160.

Manchester City’s highest odds this season were +700 from March 20 until Arsenal’s loss. Currently, the Sky Blues are at +125 to claim the title and will compete against the Gunners on Sunday in Manchester for what could be a decisive match of the season.

DraftKings Sportsbook director Johnny Avello noted that the book experienced significant action when City had longer odds, creating potential liability as the season progressed.

“Man City actually is probably the worst case for us. We probably need Arsenal to hold on here,” he stated to ESPN. “The team was a much bigger favorite at one point and now that’s shrinking. So we’ve adjusted all the way down.”

BetMGM offered even longer odds for City at +800 on March 14 and reports that they have received a leading 76.3% of wagers since that time. However, Arsenal attracted a leading 63.3% of total handle during the same period, balancing much of the betting activity. The book lists Manchester United — in third place at a distant 400-1 to win the league — as its largest overall liability.

If Arsenal does not succeed, their -1400 odds from early April would represent the shortest for a team that ultimately failed to secure the title since at least the 2009-10 season, surpassing Manchester United’s -556 on April 1 of the 2011-12 season, according to SportsOddsHistory.

Arsenal’s struggles to complete championship seasons are well known. Despite consistently being one of the Premier League’s top teams over the past four seasons, the Gunners have recorded a 16-7-6 record for 55 points in April and beyond. This performance is roughly comparable on a per-game basis with the next two teams, Liverpool (57) and Newcastle United (60), who have accumulated more points with additional matches played.

In contrast, Manchester City has excelled in the latter stages of the season, achieving a record of 26-3-1 for 81 points over the last four seasons, according to ESPN Research.

Thus, everything hinges on Sunday. DraftKings has Manchester City as a -120 favorite on the match’s three-way line, with Arsenal at +330 and the draw at +270. This crucial encounter is expected to draw significant attention from bettors.

“I expect the Sunday game to be a tremendous write for a league game. Really looking forward to that,” Avello remarked.