NBA wagering: Our preferred bets as the season enters its second half

By Marcus Hill On Feb 17, 2026 9

Which teams will qualify for the playoffs? Who will be named MVP? With the NBA All-Star break now concluded, we consulted Andre Snellings and Eric Moody to reassess teams and provide their insights as we head into the latter part of the season.

Snellings focused on the Eastern Conference, while Eric Moody analyzed the Western Conference.

Note: Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change.

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Eastern Conference

Atlanta Hawks

Jalen Johnson to win Most Improved Player (+220)

Johnson holds the second-best odds for this accolade, trailing only Deni Avdija (-120), both significantly ahead of Keyonte George (+800) and Nickeil Alexander-Walker (10-1). Among the two frontrunners, Johnson still offers plus-money, suggesting a greater reward for what I believe is at least an equal chance of winning. Avdija’s performance has plateaued, and in terms of assists, has even declined as his point guard teammates returned to health. Conversely, Johnson’s performance has improved following the Hawks’ trade of point guard Trae Young. Johnson consistently achieves double-doubles, and if both players maintain their current trajectories, Johnson could present a stronger statistical case by season’s end.

Boston Celtics

Win Atlantic Division (+115)

The Celtics are engaged in a close contest with the Knicks (-135) for the Atlantic Division title, with the Celtics holding a half-game lead as they approached the All-Star Break. Many anticipated a downturn for the Celtics following Jayson Tatum’s Achilles injury, yet Jaylen Brown has emerged as an MVP contender, guiding the team to a record comparable to last season. According to BPI, the Celtics face the fourth-easiest remaining schedule (the Knicks are 11th), setting them up for a strong finish. While Tatum’s return this season is uncertain, he has begun participating in 5-on-5 scrimmages with the Celtics’ G-League affiliate, suggesting a slim possibility of a late-season return.

Charlotte Hornets

Make the playoffs (-145)

The Hornets enter the All-Star Break as one of the hottest teams in the NBA, having won 10 of their last 11 games, including victories against strong opponents like the Spurs, Rockets, and Nuggets. The team’s young talent has gelled, with Rookie of the Year candidate Kon Knueppel joining Brandon Miller, LaMelo Ball, and Miles Bridges as key contributors. They have also recently acquired Coby White, adding further offensive depth once he is healthy and integrated into the lineup. The Hornets’ success has propelled them to the ninth seed in the East, well within play-in contention, and if they continue their winning ways, they could ascend further before the season concludes, enhancing their chances in the play-in tournament.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Win 55+ regular-season games (+230)

The Cavaliers boasted the best record in the Eastern Conference last season with 64 wins but started this season slowly due to extended injury absences from key players. They particularly struggled to reintegrate point guard Darius Garland after his injury, achieving a 13-13 record in games he played compared to 21-8 in games he missed. Following the trade of Garland for James Harden, the Cavaliers are 3-0. They have won nine of their last ten games overall. Evan Mobley is also anticipated to return from his calf injury after the break, making them even more formidable in the closing stretch. They would need to finish the season with a record of 21-6 or better to reach the 55-win threshold, a challenging yet feasible goal at plus money.

Detroit Pistons

Most regular-season wins (+270)

The Pistons have maintained the top seed in the Eastern Conference throughout the season, though the general perception is that they are still more of an “upstart” team rather than a contender. While the Thunder (-310 for most wins) were the dominant team for the initial months of the season with a 24-1 record as of December 10, they have significantly slowed down recently, posting an 18-12 record since. In contrast, the Pistons have gone 21-8 during that same timeframe, overtaking the Thunder for the best record in the league. The two teams have comparable strengths of schedule for the remainder of the season, so if recent trends persist, the Pistons have a solid chance to maintain their lead.

Miami Heat

UNDER 43.5 wins (+100)

The Heat entered the break with a 29-27 record, on track for 42 wins. Their performance has dipped slightly recently, with a 9-11 record over their last 20 games, which would project to a 37-win season. According to BPI, the Heat have faced the ninth-easiest strength of schedule thus far but will encounter the most challenging schedule in the NBA moving forward. This suggests that the Heat may struggle to maintain their pre-break pace, needing to improve their win percentage to achieve 44 or more wins.

Milwaukee Bucks

Make the Play-in Tournament (+500)

There has been speculation throughout the season regarding a potential trade involving Giannis Antetokounmpo before the deadline, yet the Bucks retained their star player. Giannis has been sidelined since late January due to a strained calf, and many assumed he might be shut down to allow the Bucks to lose enough games for a better draft pick. However, ESPN’s Jamal Collier reported that neither Giannis nor the Bucks plan to shut him down, and he is aiming to return sooner than the 4-6 week timeline provided after his injury. The Bucks added Cam Thomas from the free agent market, and he is proving to be a valuable contributor. The team has won five of their last six games and trails the Hawks by just 1.5 games for the 10th seed and final play-in spot. If Giannis plays a significant portion of the remainder of the season, they have a strong opportunity to qualify for the play-in, and at +500, there is considerable value if they do.

New York Knicks

OVER 52.5 wins (+110)

The Knicks head into the All-Star Break with a record of 35-20, meaning they would need to secure 18 wins in their remaining 27 games (66.7% win rate) to achieve 53 wins. The Knicks began the season with a 19-7 record (73.1% win rate) but experienced a multi-week slump after winning the NBA Cup, going 6-11 from December 19 to January 19. However, they have since regained their form, going 10-2 in their last 12 games before the break. Anecdotally, all three NBA Cup winners have had losing streaks following their Cup victory, so if we assume the Knicks’ struggles were a temporary issue, the team should resemble the one that started the season and entered the break with a combined 20-9 record and won the Cup. If they resume play at a level close to that, they have a strong chance to achieve at least 53 wins, which presents solid value at plus money.

Orlando Magic

Win Southeast Division (+100)

The Magic reached the All-Star Break with a half-game lead over the Miami Heat and a three-game advantage over the Hornets in the Southeast Division, a remarkable feat considering they have dealt with a total of 55 missed games from key players Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, and Jalen Suggs. However, the Magic entered the break without any injury designations for their main rotation players, having had the week off to recover, and they have the opportunity to showcase their best performance of the season moving forward.

Philadelphia 76ers

Make the Play-In Tournament (+105)

The 76ers entered the All-Star Break with a 1.5-game lead over the Magic, a two-game lead over the Heat, and a 4.5-game lead over the Hornets, securing the sixth and final non-play-in seed in the East. However, much of their outlook hinges on the ongoing health and availability of Joel Embiid. Since December 30, the 76ers have a record of 8-4 in the 12 games Embiid has played and 1-5 in the six games he has missed. If these trends regarding Embiid’s availability and the team’s performance with and without him continue, they would be on pace to win approximately 45 games (-110 odds to win over 45.5 games is another bet worth considering for those more optimistic about the 76ers). Embiid missed the last two games leading into the break due to ongoing maintenance for his chronic knee issues, and his availability will always be uncertain. According to BPI, the 76ers, Heat, and Magic are projected to finish the season within one game of each other, and if any of the Southeast Division teams surpass the 76ers, Philadelphia would likely find themselves in the play-in.

Toronto Raptors

OVER 46.5 wins (-115)

The Raptors entered the All-Star Break with a record of 32-23, which puts them on a 48-win pace. Their performance has been improving, with a 12-8 record in their last 20 games, projecting to a 49-win season. According to BPI, the Raptors have faced the ninth-most challenging strength of schedule thus far, which is more demanding than what they will encounter for the remainder of the season. The Raptors are also as healthy as they have been all season, with none of their rotation players carrying injury designations, indicating they are likely to perform better after the break than they did before, when they were already on track to exceed this win threshold.

Western Conference

play2:02Stephen A.: LeBron crucial for Lakers to make playoffs run

Stephen A. Smith argues that if the Lakers are healthy and performing well offensively, they can make a run in the Western Conference playoffs.

Denver Nuggets

Nikola Jokic to win regular-season MVP (+300)

He averages 28.7 PPG, 12.3 RPG, and 10.7 APG while shooting 59.0% from the field. Before missing 16 games due to a hyperextended left knee, Jokic was the frontrunner for MVP. To remain eligible, he can afford to miss just one additional game. With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander sidelined by an abdominal strain and the Thunder cooling off from their strong start, Jokic’s statistical advantage makes this price appealing.

Golden State Warriors

OVER 43.5 wins (+105)

The Warriors’ outlook shifts significantly after the All-Star break. Stephen Curry is anticipated to return from knee soreness, and Kristaps Porzingis is on track for his debut, providing Golden State with elite floor spacing and a formidable matchup at center. Even without Jimmy Butler III, a healthy Curry combined with Porzingis adds size, shooting, and offensive versatility. If they can stabilize defensively and maintain health, this roster is well-positioned to exceed the listed win total.

Houston Rockets

Finish as the No. 4 seed (+175)

The Rockets possess one of the easiest remaining schedules in the league, although bettors may be concerned about their inconsistent performance and the season-ending injury to Steven Adams. However, the Timberwolves are facing one of the toughest remaining schedules, which could provide Houston with an advantage in a closely contested Western Conference race.

LA Clippers

UNDER 41.5 wins (+100)

The Clippers traded away James Harden and Ivica Zubac, leaving Kawhi Leonard to bear an unsustainable offensive burden. While Leonard has performed well this season, his injury history makes this workload risky over an extended stretch. Although LA added Darius Garland and Bennedict Mathurin, who should return soon, the roster remains in transition and lacks depth. Even with a manageable schedule, relying heavily on one star in a competitive division makes the under appealing.

Los Angeles Lakers

Make the Play-In Tournament (+210)

After a strong 15-4 start, they have struggled since, ranking 16th in net rating and 23rd in defensive rating. The Timberwolves and Suns appear to be stronger, more balanced teams based on advanced metrics. The Lakers depend heavily on clutch victories, which can be a double-edged sword. Even slight regression could push them into the 7-to-10 range in the Western Conference.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Naz Reid (+190) to win Sixth Man of the Year

After winning the award in 2023-24, Reid could become just the sixth player in league history to achieve this honor multiple times. He is playing some of the best basketball of his career and is trusted by head coach Chris Finch in critical moments due to his versatility and two-way impact. Statistically, both Minnesota’s top offensive and defensive lineups include Reid.

Oklahoma City Thunder

OVER 61.5 wins (-115)

The Thunder will aim to secure the No. 1 seed, especially with the Spurs close behind in the Western Conference standings. Health will be Oklahoma City’s primary focus, particularly with reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander sidelined by an oblique injury. Nevertheless, the roster is deep enough that even if the team exercises caution with SGA, Oklahoma City should have no trouble surpassing this win total.

Phoenix Suns

Win Pacific Division (+165)

The Suns’ offseason changes have exceeded expectations, resulting in one of the more balanced rosters in the division. The addition of Dillon Brooks has bolstered their defensive identity, and Phoenix currently ranks 10th in defensive rating. They are closely competing with the Lakers in the standings, while Los Angeles is positioned well outside the top 20 defensively. Defense tends to be more sustainable as the season progresses, giving the Suns a more stable profile in a competitive division race.

Portland Trail Blazers

UNDER 41.5 wins (-140)

The Trail Blazers are showing improvement, but their standing is more precarious than it seems. Currently ninth, they are likely headed for the play-in tournament. While Deni Avdija and Donovan Clingan have contributed to significant progress, Portland remains a young, developing team. They also face one of the toughest remaining schedules in the league. Considering these factors, they may hover near the win total but ultimately finish slightly below it. -Moody

San Antonio Spurs

Win Western Conference (+850) and NBA Finals (16-1)

The Thunder have been favorites throughout the season, yet the Spurs have achieved a 4-1 record against Oklahoma City. Matchups are crucial, and San Antonio has demonstrated its ability to disrupt OKC’s rhythm. The Spurs rank fifth in net rating and feature one of the league’s most versatile players in Victor Wembanyama. At these odds, San Antonio poses a legitimate postseason threat.

Utah Jazz

Keyonte George (+800) to win Most Improved Player

George has been one of the few bright spots for a Jazz team undergoing another rebuilding phase. In his third year, he is achieving career highs in points (23.8), rebounds (3.9), assists (6.5), field-goal attempts (16.3), and field-goal percentage (45.8%). While Deni Avdija and Jalen Johnson are having strong seasons, George should not be overlooked.