NBA Viewing Guide: Key Matchups, Narratives, and Playoff Contests

The NBA trade deadline and All-Star events are now in the past, leaving two months of regular-season basketball ahead, with numerous intriguing narratives still developing.

Our NBA experts have compiled a viewers guide addressing the most pressing questions, the most thrilling games to observe, and the award races to monitor.

As the playoff landscape begins to take shape in the upcoming weeks, which team will emerge as the primary contender to the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder? Will we witness another direct competition between Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for the MVP title, or could an unexpected candidate claim the award this season?

Discover insights from our NBA insiders and more, including what to keep an eye on at the lower end of the standings, with the NBA lottery scheduled for May 10.

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Biggest questions | Games to watch
Award races | Lottery watch
Playoff projections

Key questions for the remainder of the season

Who poses the greatest threat to the Thunder in the playoffs?

This hinges on the health status of the Denver Nuggets, who took the Thunder to seven games in last season’s Western Conference semifinals. Similar to Oklahoma City, Denver has faced significant injury challenges throughout the season, but the Nuggets’ restructured front office has assembled the strongest supporting cast for Nikola Jokic’s career—provided all key players are fit for the playoffs.

The Jackals and the broader San Antonio Spurs’ fanbase may feel justified in their disappointment at not being the favored team here, especially considering that Victor Wembanyama and his teammates achieved a 4-1 record against the Thunder this season, including three victories within 12 days in December when Oklahoma City was relatively healthy. However, the inexperience of this group in the playoffs raises enough uncertainty regarding the Spurs’ capacity to navigate the challenging Western Conference. — Tim MacMahon

Which team is the dark horse in the Eastern Conference?

It’s challenging to label the Cleveland Cavaliers as a dark horse, given their strong position in the standings. Assuming the Cavs do not qualify, particularly with the excitement surrounding the James Harden acquisition, the Boston Celtics emerge as the most unpredictable team—more so than the Philadelphia 76ers. They currently sit second in the East without Jayson Tatum, who is sidelined due to an Achilles injury sustained in last year’s playoffs. If Tatum makes a return, which seems likely, it complicates the dynamics of an unexpectedly competitive Eastern Conference.

While it is difficult to anticipate Tatum’s seamless reintegration into high-pressure games, the Celtics possess a potent three-point shooting capability and hold the second-best offensive rating in the league, trailing only Jaylen Brown (29.3 points, 6.9 rebounds, 4.7 assists), suggesting they may not require Tatum to be at his peak. If Tatum can contribute as a solid defender, rebounder, and spot-up shooter, it is plausible for Boston to advance through two playoff rounds. — Vincent Goodwill

Which player incentives should we monitor?

Zion Williamson is a key player to observe, as he is on track to participate in at least 41 games for only the third time in six seasons. For Williamson and the New Orleans Pelicans, this milestone has become crucial. Provisions in the five-year, $197.2 million extension he signed in 2022 include stipulations regarding games played and weight, which, if unmet, could reduce his salary protection for future seasons. (For instance, since Williamson missed over 22 games in 2024-25, his $42.2 million salary for 2026-27 is non-guaranteed.)

The extension permits Williamson’s salary for the next season to become partially or fully guaranteed if four conditions are satisfied:

• More than 41 games played ($16,866,604)

• More than 51 games played ($8,433,302)

• More than 61 games played ($8,433,302)

• Weight criteria ($8,433,302)

Having already participated in 40 games this season, Williamson’s salary protection will rise from $0 to $16,866,604 when the Pelicans face the Milwaukee Bucks on Friday. Additionally, as long as Williamson is not waived, his salary will become fully guaranteed on July 15. — Bobby Marks

Are we witnessing LeBron James’ final months as a member of the Los Angeles Lakers?

James’ future remains uncertain, as the 41-year-old has repeatedly expressed doubt about his plans for next season—he will be a free agent this summer—or retirement.

If James wishes to play a 24th season, sources indicate he would be welcomed back in Los Angeles.

Lakers president of basketball operations and general manager Rob Pelinka stated before the season began that he would be thrilled if James retired as a Laker, and sources conveyed to ESPN that this sentiment was intended to reflect a retirement in 2026 or 2027 if James aims to extend his career.

Should James return, his salary will significantly influence the type of roster L.A. can assemble.

This season, James is earning $52.6 million. Although he accepted a $2.7 million reduction from the maximum on his last contract with L.A., taking a substantial pay cut to re-sign with the Lakers this summer would mark a notable shift from his usual approach to contract negotiations. — Dave McMenamin

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The “Get Up” crew questions if LeBron James has what it takes to lead the Lakers past the second round of the 2026 NBA playoffs.

The most significant storyline to monitor for the remainder of the regular season is _____?

The tank race. While there may be some movement in the standings near the top of each conference, it appears that the playoff teams and those on the brink of contention are largely established. That tension will peak in mid-April, but in the interim, there will be intense scrutiny on the competition for the bottom positions and the strategic maneuvers to secure additional ping-pong balls in May’s lottery.

Additionally, the top prospects in this year’s draft class, including Darryn Peterson, AJ Dybantsa, Cameron Boozer, and Caleb Wilson (along with numerous other lottery hopefuls), are all part of college teams that are expected to make an impact in March. NBA fans scouting for future stars will be paying close attention. — Anthony Slater

What is the current situation between Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks? The Bucks are attempting to preserve this 13-season partnership, but it remains uncertain if they can take any action before his future (once again) becomes the most significant narrative of the summer. The Bucks will resume play after the All-Star break with a 23-30 record, placing them 12th in the East.

Antetokounmpo has not played since January 23 due to a strained right calf, but he is anticipated to return in the coming weeks to help Milwaukee strive for a playoff spot. Will he succeed? Will the Bucks shift from playoff aspirations to a focus on improving their draft position? Or are we witnessing Antetokounmpo’s final months in Milwaukee? — Jamal Collier

The Cavaliers have secured 10 victories in 11 games and recently acquired James Harden to replace the frequently injured Darius Garland. This move signals both a financial commitment and a tangible effort that the Cavaliers are in win-now mode.

The disappointments of the past two playoff seasons still linger, prompting them to make substantial changes, including a significant gamble on Harden despite his history of playoff challenges. They currently hold the No. 4 position in the East and are just 1.5 games behind the No. 2 seed, putting them in a potential second-round matchup with the New York Knicks and Celtics.

We know what to expect from Donovan Mitchell, who is quietly enjoying his best season. If he and Harden can establish chemistry in the final two months, they could propel this team to the No. 2 spot, thereby elevating playoff expectations once again. Are they better equipped for success this time, or are they setting themselves up for another familiar outcome? — Goodwill

Key games to observe at the top of the standings

Cleveland Cavaliers at Detroit Pistons (Feb. 27, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN)

The James Harden era has begun on a positive note for the Cavaliers, who entered the All-Star break on a three-game winning streak. However, it is still early in the season. The Cavaliers have several compelling matchups in the weeks following the break, including a clash with the East-leading Pistons, who currently hold a seven-game advantage over them in the standings.

Boston Celtics at New York Knicks (April 9, 7:30 p.m. ET)

By this point in the schedule, Jayson Tatum could potentially be back in action for the Celtics after participating in scrimmages with the Celtics’ G League affiliate last week. With these teams currently separated by half a game in the standings, they will be competing for top-four seeding in the Eastern Conference as the regular season concludes. This matchup could play a crucial role in that determination.

Oklahoma City Thunder at Denver Nuggets (April 10, 9 p.m. ET)

Assuming both Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic remain in contention for end-of-season accolades, this game on the final Friday of the regular season will serve not only as a potential preview of the Western Conference finals but also as a critical moment in the MVP race. As MacMahon noted, the Nuggets, when fully healthy, are the primary challengers to dethrone the Thunder this season.

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Key games to observe at the bottom of the standings

Memphis Grizzlies at Utah Jazz (Feb. 20, 7 p.m. ET)

Utah, which faced penalties for manipulating lineups last week resulting in a $500,000 fine, will emerge from the All-Star break to face Memphis, another team entrenched in the tank race. This will mark the first encounter between the two teams that traded Jaren Jackson Jr. before the deadline—ironically, another move seemingly aimed at aiding the Grizzlies in their tanking efforts.

New Orleans Pelicans at Sacramento Kings (April 3, 10 p.m. ET)

These two teams did not anticipate being part of the tank race at the season’s outset but now find themselves firmly in contention at the bottom of the standings. The Pelicans are in this position due to their struggles this season; however, they do not possess their first-round pick this year. The Kings, on the other hand, could be nearing a top-three lottery spot with more than two months remaining in the regular season.

Washington Wizards at Brooklyn Nets (April 5, 3:30 ET)

A Sunday afternoon matchup in Brooklyn will feature two teams that have spent this season competing for lottery positioning, with just one week remaining in the regular season. As the season concludes, this game could prove to be highly significant in determining the final standings of the league’s lower-tier teams.

— Tim Bontemps

Award races to monitor: MVP, ROY, and more!

Most Valuable Player (MVP)

Leading candidate: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Thanks to his exceptional statistics (32 PPG on 67% true shooting) and his significance to the top team in the West, SGA is a frontrunner to secure the MVP title again. Oklahoma City averages 121.6 points per 100 possessions with Gilgeous-Alexander on the floor, compared to just 110.0 without him. This disparity is akin to the difference between the top-ranked Nuggets and the 29th-ranked Wizards.

In the hunt: Nikola Jokic

Trailing Gilgeous-Alexander is last year’s runner-up. Jokic leads the league in rebounds (12.3 per game) and assists (10.7), and he is on track to break single-season records for player efficiency rating and box plus-minus. Only his limited playing time—having missed 16 games—prevents the three-time MVP from being a stronger contender. Other potential candidates behind Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokic include Cade Cunningham and Jaylen Brown, who are leading the top teams in the East but lack the individual statistics to rival the two most recent MVP winners.

Rookie of the Year (ROY)

Leading candidate: Cooper Flagg

The No. 1 pick is favored to win this award, bouncing back from a slow start while playing out of position to average 20.4 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 4.1 assists at the All-Star break. Despite suffering a foot sprain earlier this month, Flagg continues to rise: Over his last six games before the break, he averaged 32 PPG on 53% shooting.

In the hunt: Kon Knueppel

The No. 4 pick is within reach if Flagg stumbles in the final stretch, averaging 18.9 PPG with historic efficiency for a rookie. With 3.4 three-pointers per game on 43% shooting from beyond the arc, Knueppel is on pace to break rookie records and is a key contributor to a team that could ascend into the Eastern Conference playoff picture.

Coach of the Year (COY)

Leading candidate: J.B. Bickerstaff

The Coach of the Year award is always highly competitive with numerous deserving candidates—but if the Detroit Pistons conclude the season with the best winning percentage in the NBA, which they currently hold at the All-Star break, Bickerstaff will likely be a frontrunner after finishing as the runner-up last season.

In the hunt: Several young coaches whose teams have exceeded expectations are also in contention for Coach of the Year, notably Phoenix’s Jordan Ott, San Antonio’s Mitch Johnson, and Boston’s Joe Mazzulla, whose team has managed to compete in the East despite losing five rotation players from the previous season.

Most Improved Player (MIP)

Leading candidates: Deni Avdija and Jalen Johnson

This award appears to be a close race between the two first-time All-Stars who are excelling for play-in teams. Avdija is