NBA offseason narratives: Observing LeBron, Reaves, Giannis, and others

By Marcus Hill On Feb 19, 2026 9

Which players, teams, and narratives will take center stage during the NBA offseason?

The ongoing situation involving Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks is a key focus. Additionally, the future of the Los Angeles Lakers roster is significant, particularly regarding the free agency decisions of LeBron James and Austin Reaves. Across the league, numerous franchises will confront choices that could reshape the NBA’s structure.

We are analyzing the ten most pressing questions of the summer, including pivotal players at a crossroads, key free agent and trade targets, and the importance of June’s draft for several teams positioned for the lottery.

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Will the Giannis saga delay offseason movement?

The outcome may hinge on the Bucks’ strategy this summer.

“I want to win a championship with the Milwaukee Bucks,” Antetokounmpo stated to ESPN’s Malika Andrews during All-Star Weekend. “And if that is not on the table, maybe I have to pivot because I really want to win.”

Entering the lottery for the first time since 2016, the Bucks will acquire a valuable 2026 draft pick to enhance their trade assets. Milwaukee also possesses first-round picks in 2031 and 2033 and has the ability to swap selections in 2031, 2032, and 2033. Securing Antetokounmpo’s commitment to an extension in the fall may depend on the outcome of June’s draft pick and the franchise’s plans for those selections.

Enhancing the roster through free agency may be more challenging. Milwaukee has nine free agents this summer, five of whom have player options (Kevin Porter Jr., Gary Trent Jr., Gary Harris, Taurean Prince, and Jericho Sims). The Bucks are also expected to be over the salary cap this offseason, partly due to signing center Myles Turner last offseason and the obligation to pay Damian Lillard $20.2 million annually through 2029-30 after waiving and stretching his contract.

Aside from utilizing Turner, Kyle Kuzma, or Bobby Portis’ contracts in trades, Milwaukee will have access to the $15.1 million non-tax midlevel, $5.5 million biannual, and veteran minimum exceptions for player signings.

The Bucks investigated trades for Antetokounmpo before the deadline and are likely to do so again if there are signs he is not committed long-term. The market for Antetokounmpo is expected to broaden this summer for several reasons.

Teams that were restricted in tradable draft picks at the deadline will have more options available starting on draft night. For instance, the Los Angeles Lakers will see their tradable first-round picks increase from one to three. The Miami Heat will have up to four first-round picks to trade instead of two at the deadline. The New York Knicks will transition from zero to two.

Moreover, there is often a heightened sense of urgency from front offices when a team exits the playoffs early. The Houston Rockets and Orlando Magic were eliminated in the first round last season and subsequently traded for Kevin Durant and Desmond Bane, respectively. Would the New York Knicks or the Cleveland Cavaliers consider going all-in for Antetokounmpo if they experience similar playoff outcomes?

Additional factors that could lead to a Giannis trade this summer include:

Players who signed rookie extensions, such as the Magic’s Paolo Banchero and the Rockets’ Jabari Smith Jr., will no longer face position restrictions in their contracts. Nine players will see this restriction lifted starting July 1.
Teams will be permitted to send out or receive more contracts than during the regular season, with offseason roster sizes expanding from 15 to 21.
Teams will enjoy increased financial flexibility, as the first and second apron levels are projected to rise by 7.3%.

play0:33LeBron James: ‘I have no idea’ if I’ll play a 24th season

LeBron James expresses uncertainty about his future in the league and whether he will play a 24th season.

Where will LeBron James be next season?

Recently, after becoming the oldest player to achieve a triple-double, the 41-year-old James addressed a significant factor that could influence his longevity in the NBA.

“My game is not going anywhere. It’s just my body,” James remarked to reporters following the Lakers’ victory over the Dallas Mavericks before the All-Star break. “[But] how long can I stay in love with the process?

“Because that’s always been my thing. If I can’t continue to stay in love with the process, then if [my mental commitment] goes, then my body’s going to go. And once my body goes, then it’s a wrap.”

Remarkably, James, who has averaged at least 33 minutes and 20 points in every season of his career, is on track to extend his streak to 23 consecutive years.

James’ options for a 24th season include:

Returning to the Lakers
Signing with a contender
Retiring

Re-signing with Los Angeles would entail a substantial pay reduction from his current $52.6 million. However, few contenders are anticipated to have cap space this summer. For instance, it is likely that the Cavaliers, Denver Nuggets, and Knicks could only offer LeBron the veteran’s minimum exception.

How will the Lakers continue building around Luka Doncic?

Since acquiring Doncic in February 2025, the Lakers have been navigating two timelines: LeBron’s and Luka’s.

“Having optionality now is really a positive thing for us this coming offseason,” president of basketball operations Rob Pelinka stated after this season’s Feb. 5 trade deadline.

This offseason, the franchise’s primary focus is re-signing Austin Reaves, who is likely to decline his $14.9 million player option for 2026-27 in pursuit of a long-term extension.

Prior to suffering a left calf injury on Christmas, Reaves was averaging a career-high 26.6 points and shooting over 50% from the field. (In five games since his return, Reaves has averaged 20.0 points in just 25.4 minutes.) “I’ve said it a million times. I want to be in L.A. I love it,” Reaves told ESPN’s Dave McMenamin in November.

“Even though the other extension was turned down, that doesn’t mean that I’m trying to go get a f—ing gigantic number that doesn’t make sense. I want to be here; I want to win.”

The Lakers, Chicago Bulls, and Brooklyn Nets are among the teams with sufficient financial resources to offer Reaves a lucrative contract. However, as demonstrated by the Bucks when they waived and stretched Lillard’s contract last season, teams without cap space have strategies to create it.

Due to Reaves’ $20.9 million free agent hold, the Lakers could potentially have up to $50 million in cap space this summer, the highest of any team. To create that space, however, Los Angeles would need to renounce every free agent on the roster, including LeBron.

Besides James and Reaves, which other free agents should we watch?

Peyton Watson and Collin Gillespie.

In Watson’s situation, Denver’s failure to reach an extension before the season could prove detrimental.

“With the new CBA and the second apron, things of that nature, [the Nuggets] wanted to stay out of that,” Watson told the Denver Post in October. “As a business, you’ve gotta operate [based on] what’s best for your business. And when it comes time for me to make my decision next summer, I’ve gotta operate as a business myself.”

Watson is a restricted free agent this offseason, allowing Denver to match any offer sheet. The Nuggets are projected to be $3.6 million below the second apron next season.

Watson, who was named a Western Conference Player of the Week in January, is averaging career highs in points and shooting efficiency this season. In 39 starts, he is averaging 17.5 points with a 50.4 field goal percentage and 41.7% shooting from three-point range.

Gillespie, on the other hand, has exceeded the expectations of the one-year, $2.3 million contract he signed with the Suns.

He recorded a career-high 30 points in a Feb. 3 victory against the Portland Trail Blazers and has at least six assists in 16 games this season. The Suns are plus-4.8 points per 100 possessions when Gillespie is on the court, according to Cleaning the Glass.

Gillespie is eligible to sign a four-year, $66.6 million contract with Phoenix. Because he has early Bird rights, the contract must be for a minimum of two seasons (excluding an option).

Regarding the rest of the free agent class, here are additional notable names to monitor:

All-Star level: LeBron James, Jalen Duren (restricted), Austin Reaves, James Harden (player option)
Top starter level: Trae Young (player option), Lu Dort (team option), Draymond Green (player option), Walker Kessler (restricted), Norman Powell
Starter level: Peyton Watson (restricted), Neemias Queta (team option), Collin Gillespie, Deandre Ayton (player), Harrison Barnes, Coby White, Mitchell Robinson, John Collins, Tari Eason (restricted), Rui Hachimura, Tobias Harris, Kevin Porter Jr. (player option), Isaiah Hartenstein (team option), Jaden Ivey (restricted), CJ McCollum, Kristaps Porzingis, Fred VanVleet (player option), Nikola Vucevic, Zach LaVine (player option), Andrew Wiggins (player option), and Mark Williams (restricted)

play1:40Windhorst: Jazz tanking more ‘egregious,’ but still within the rules

Brian Windhorst comments on allegations that the Utah Jazz have been “tanking” late in games and notes they are not the only franchise doing so.

Why are the next two months so important for teams jockeying for lottery position?

We have closely monitored the 2026 draft class for some time, with a historically strong group of college freshmen forming one of the deepest lottery classes in recent memory. Darryn Peterson, AJ Dybantsa, and Cameron Boozer have long been the standout names. Fellow freshmen Caleb Wilson, Kingston Flemings, Keaton Wagler, Nate Ament, Darius Acuff Jr., and Mikel Brown Jr. currently complete our top nine.

The trade deadline heightened the stakes for teams such as the Jazz, Washington Wizards, and Indiana Pacers, who may flirt with fate on lottery night due to the protections on their first-round selections. The rationale for these teams to lose games is clear: maximize their chances of retaining their picks.

The underlying context of this exciting draft is that NBA teams have not been as optimistic about the 2027 and 2028 draft classes, as they continue to search for talent both domestically and internationally. It is premature to treat this as conclusive, but those drafts seem to lack archetypal star power. It is no coincidence that long-struggling teams like Washington and Utah are positioned to make progress next season. There is simply less motivation to lose games in 2026-27.

This perception places even greater significance on the 2026 lottery, where this elite group of players represents many teams’ clearest opportunity to acquire a franchise-altering talent. — Jeremy Woo

Will veteran extensions impact the 2027 free agent class?

Examining the next steps for Antetokounmpo and James are the obvious narratives to follow this offseason. However, players eligible for veteran extensions will also play a significant role, not just this summer but in the 2026-27 trade landscape.

Beginning the day after the Finals, a notable group of All-Stars will become eligible to sign extensions:

Nikola Jokic, Kawhi Leonard, Karl-Anthony Towns, Draymond Green, Trae Young, LaMelo Ball, Ja Morant, Tyler Herro, Zion Williamson, Tyrese Haliburton, Pascal Siakam, and Domantas Sabonis. Jokic opted not to sign a three-year extension last summer for financial reasons, not due to dissatisfaction with Denver’s roster direction. A year later, he can extend for up to four more seasons starting in 2027-28.

In addition to Jokic, Donovan Mitchell (July 7), Anthony Edwards (July 8), Jaylen Brown (July 26), Anthony Davis (Aug. 6), and Stephen Curry (Aug. 29) will become extension-eligible at various points during the offseason. (Due to the over-38 rule, Curry and Leonard can extend for two additional seasons.)

Victor Wembanyama will be the next $250 million player. Which rookie extension candidates could join him?

Negotiations regarding Wembanyama’s next contract will be straightforward.

On or after July 6, San Antonio and its franchise star will finalize a projected five-year, $252 million maximum extension. The contract will include All-NBA, Defensive Player of the Year, and MVP language, which could elevate the deal to $303.3 million if he meets the criteria in 2026-27. Since Wembanyama was ineligible for league honors in 2024-25, he is not eligible for 30% of the salary cap in Year 1 of the extension, even if he meets the criteria this season.

Approximately 200 miles from San Antonio, the Rockets’ Amen Thompson could join Wembanyama as the second player to secure a rookie max extension this summer. Thompson is achieving career highs in points, assists, and field goal percentage, and the Rockets perform five points better per 100 possessions when Thompson is on the court.

Other notable candidates for extensions include Brandon Miller, Ausar Thompson, Cason Wallace, Dereck Lively II, and Brandin Podziemski.

What will happen with Golden State this offseason?

Two days after the trade deadline, general manager Mike Dunleavy Jr. emphasized that Golden State possesses the resources to enhance the team in the summer. “We’ve got the goods to make deals,” he stated.

“I think the only way we wouldn’t be in the mix is if we gave out assets, young players, all the things you need to get a great player. We still have all that. I think that’s one of the reasons the [Kristaps Porzingis] trade is really good for us, similar to Jimmy [Butler III] last year. We don’t feel like we gave up a ton. We still have the kind of firepower to move forward and do more deals.”

Dunleavy is referring to the Warriors’ four first-round picks and the right to swap picks over the next seven years. (They owe Dallas their 2030 first-round pick, but only if it falls outside of the top-20.)

What could impede the Warriors in any trade discussions are the contracts available for use in deals. While Golden State is significantly below the apron to absorb salary, its three highest-paid players are either untouchable (Curry), injured (Butler), or potentially a free agent — Green has a $27.7 million player option for 2026-27.

The Warriors do have $18 million in salary from former first-round picks Moses Moody and Podziemski. Porzingis could also be traded in a sign-and-trade if he consents.

Besides Antetokounmpo, which players under contract should we watch?

A potential domino effect of extension-eligible players may emerge in trade discussions this summer.

For instance, will the Clippers continue their youth movement and consider trades for All-Star Kawhi Leonard? In two separate trades before the deadline, LA acquired former lottery picks Darius Garland, Bennedict Mathurin, Isaiah Jackson, and two first-round picks.

“We were just trying to get younger,” Leonard stated after the trade deadline. We came into the year with the oldest team. It makes sense for them to try to acquire assets and build for the future. There’s a significant class coming in 2027, hopefully. They have to do what’s best for them.”

The 34-year-old Leonard will earn $50.3 million next season, which is the final year of his contract with the Clippers.

The Knicks’ postseason success could influence their roster decisions this summer. The Knicks will enter the offseason as a potential second apron team if they re-sign center Mitchell Robinson and have four players under contract earning over $33.5 million next season, including Karl-Anthony Towns. The All-Star big man is eligible to sign up to a four-year, $275 million extension and has a $61 million player option for 2027-28.

Ja Morant and the Memphis Grizzlies are also worth monitoring. As reported by ESPN’s Shams Charania in early January, the Grizzlies were exploring the market for a new destination for their former franchise player. Morant has two years left on his contract ($42.2 million and $44.9 million).

Since June, Memphis has traded Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr., deals that have netted the franchise seven future first-round picks.