Reasons why each men’s semifinalist at the Australian Open has a chance to secure the championship
MELBOURNE, Australia — Carlos Alcaraz. Jannik Sinner. Alexander Zverev. Novak Djokovic. For the first time since 2013, the top four men’s seeds have advanced to the semifinals of the Australian Open.
This weekend at Melbourne Park is set to witness historical moments. Alcaraz aims to become the youngest man to achieve the career Slam. Sinner is pursuing a rare three-peat in Australia. Zverev is striving for his first major title. Meanwhile, Djokovic is still in pursuit of his record-extending 25th Grand Slam title.
Here’s a look at why each semifinalist has the potential to claim the trophy:
Carlos Alcaraz (No. 1 seed)
Alcaraz has been on a remarkable run in tennis over the past 18 months, securing Grand Slam victories and reclaiming the prestigious No. 1 ranking. His dominant performance has been evident throughout the last 11 days at Melbourne Park.
The Spaniard has hardly had to exert himself as he has surged into the semifinals at the Australian Open for the first time in his young career. He boasts a perfect record of 15/15 on sets played and has not shown signs of vulnerability. In the few tense moments he has encountered, Alcaraz has remained composed, winning a tournament-high 76% of points when serving at either 30-30 or 40-40.
However, perhaps the most concerning aspect for his competitors is that Alcaraz seems to have improved what was previously his only weakness: the serve. He has adopted elements from Djokovic’s serving technique, focusing on precision rather than sheer power.
“He doesn’t hit the fastest serve, but [it] is super accurate. Like, you cannot read it. It’s really, really difficult to read it,” Alcaraz remarked earlier in the tournament when discussing the effectiveness of Djokovic’s serve. “It is really close to the lines, and his ball is, like, a sleeper when it touches the ground. Sometimes you’ve got to go for precision more than speed.”
At this year’s Australian Open, Alcaraz is achieving a 66% success rate on first serves, which is two percentage points higher than his performance at the tournament last year. He has also increased his second serve win rate from 56% last year to 60% this year. While these may not seem like monumental improvements, they significantly complicate the challenge for Sinner, Zverev, and Djokovic.
Securing the Australian Open title on Sunday would make Alcaraz the youngest man ever to complete the coveted career Slam — winning at all four major tournaments. His desire to rewrite the record books should not be underestimated.
Jannik Sinner (No. 2 seed)
At this juncture, it seems almost certain that Sinner will, at the very least, be competing in Sunday’s final. This is not solely due to his matchup against 38-year-old Djokovic in the semifinals, but rather because he has consistently reached Grand Slam finals recently.
Sinner has participated in the last five Grand Slam finals, winning three of them. He has competed in the last four hard-court major finals, winning three, including the previous two Australian Opens. He has triumphed in 32 of his last 33 matches at Grand Slams on hard courts and has not lost at Melbourne Park since 2023, when he was defeated in a five-set thriller by eventual finalist Stefanos Tsitsipas.
Aside from a brief scare in the third round against unseeded American Eliot Spizzirri, Sinner has navigated his way to the semifinals with ease. His quarterfinal victory over eighth-seed Ben Shelton was impressive, signaling to the other competitors that dethroning him will require an extraordinary effort.
Sinner is serving effectively, striking the ball cleanly, minimizing errors, and compelling his opponents to play outside their comfort zones.
“Every day and every match day, we never take the opponent for granted,” Sinner stated after his quarterfinal win over Shelton. “I’m someone who goes very much in the present moment. I’m happy to be here, happy to play one more time the semis here in Australia. It’s a very special place for me.”
Sinner will enter the semifinals as a strong favorite against Djokovic, an opponent he has defeated in their last five encounters. He has also not dropped a set against him in their past three meetings. A potential final matchup would be against either Alcaraz or Zverev, both of whom he has bested on his way to winning the ATP Finals in November.
Alexander Zverev (No. 3 seed)
He has been on the verge of claiming his first Grand Slam title for what seems like an eternity, but could this be the year and the tournament where Zverev finally achieves that goal?
The world No. 3 is well-acquainted with competing deep into the second week of a major and will not feel out of place when he steps onto Rod Laver Arena on Friday for his 10th Grand Slam semifinal. He has reached the final on three occasions, including last year at the Australian Open.
Zverev has maintained a strong level of play this fortnight, improving with each match and looking every bit like a player poised to become champion. He is playing with discipline and avoiding unforced errors, a key factor in his quarterfinal victory against rising American Learner Tien.
As always, much of Zverev’s potential success relies on his powerful serve. Throughout his five matches in the tournament, Zverev has recorded 80 aces, committed only six double faults, won 92% of his service games, and secured 77% of points when his first serve has landed in play.
“I feel healthy, and pain-free, which I haven’t felt in a long time,” Zverev said after his quarterfinal win over Tien. “I feel like I’m playing well. Of course, I’m still chasing that desired Slam. I still want to achieve that, but I also want to enjoy my tennis.”
For Zverev, there is both good news and bad news ahead of his semifinal. The bad news is that he must face top-seeded Alcaraz. The good news is that he has one of the better records against him on tour. The two are tied at 6-6 from their previous 12 encounters, and 1-1 over the last 18 months. This should provide him with confidence that he can achieve an upset and reach a second consecutive Australian Open final.
Novak Djokovic (No. 4 seed)
No one in tennis history has mastered the art of winning Grand Slam titles like Djokovic. Additionally, no one has been more successful at the Australian Open.
The 10-time champion of this event has suffered defeat at Melbourne Park only six times in the last 16 years and boasts an impressive 20-2 record in the semifinals and finals at the tournament. Although he has not lifted a Grand Slam trophy since 2023, he remains a legitimate contender at age 38 every time he enters a draw. With only two matches standing between him and the title, he should not be underestimated.
Djokovic has also benefited from some favorable circumstances this fortnight. He did not face a top-70 ranked opponent in the first three rounds, and then received a fourth-round walkover when Czech Jakub Mensik withdrew due to an abdominal injury. On Wednesday, Djokovic appeared to be on the verge of elimination, trailing Italian Lorenzo Musetti by two sets to love. However, the fifth seed retired due to injury, allowing Djokovic to advance to the last four at the Australian Open for the 13th time in his career.
This stroke of luck could be just what he needs to secure a 25th major title, breaking the tie he currently shares with Margaret Court for the most singles Grand Slam titles.
“I know that when I’m healthy, when I’m able to put all the pieces of the puzzle together on a given day, I feel like I can beat anybody,” Djokovic stated before the tournament commenced. “My priority is really taking care of my body, building momentum and not spending unnecessary energy. [Last year] I was missing a little bit of juice in my legs, to be able to compete with these guys at the latter stages of a Grand Slam.”
Djokovic will be the most rested of all four semifinalists, having spent just nine hours and seven minutes on the court. Alcaraz, Sinner, and Zverev have each spent at least 11 hours on court to reach this stage of the tournament.
Interestingly, there is also very little pressure on him. Sinner is a significant favorite to win their semifinal and is expected to prevail with relative ease. However, there is no such thing as an easy victory over Djokovic in Australia. Caution is advised against underestimating him.
Source: espn.com
