Jamie Joseph or Dave Rennie: Who is the preferred candidate for the All Blacks coaching position?
Dave Rennie or Jamie Joseph. Jamie Joseph or Dave Rennie.
Everyone in New Zealand has their own theories and alleged insider information. However, the truth is that the decision regarding the next All Blacks head coach will not be made until mid-March.
Ideally, Joe Schmidt, Vern Cotter, and possibly others who meet the requirement of having coached another international team would compete for Scott Robertson’s former position.
As it stands, Rennie and Joseph are the only two legitimate candidates. Warren Gatland and any other suggestions are merely illusions.
In the upcoming weeks, New Zealand Rugby’s panel, which includes former All Blacks hookers Dane Coles, Keven Mealamu, chairman David Kirk, high-performance expert Don Tricker, and interim chief executive Steve Lancaster, will ultimately make the decision.
Lancaster and Coles visited the Highlanders in Dunedin last week and will head to Japan next week to meet Rennie’s Kobe Steelers as part of the due diligence process before formal interviews are held with the complete appointment panel.
For now, let’s evaluate Rennie and Joseph.
Who has the advantage and why?
Joseph ignited a wave of speculation that he had secured his appointment after leading the Highlanders to a surprising victory over the Crusaders in their opening Super Rugby Pacific match in Dunedin last week.
While a single win does not diminish his prospects, it certainly does not guarantee his selection.
Joseph’s appeal extends well beyond the opening weekend of Super Rugby, with his extensive coaching background ranging from Wellington to the Highlanders, whom he led to their only Super Rugby title in 2015, as well as New Zealand Māori and Japan.
Two years ago, Joseph vied for the All Blacks position when Robertson was appointed. He has since guided the All Blacks XV on their unbeaten northern tour against Uruguay, England A, and the Barbarians last November, indicating he is a strong candidate.
However, Joseph’s case is significantly weakened by his former assistant Tony Brown’s commitment to the Springboks through to the 2027 World Cup.
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Most rugby analysts recognize Brown’s now well-known attacking creativity, but his approachable demeanor complements Joseph’s firm, authoritative style.
The All Blacks, particularly their forward pack, could gain from Joseph’s traditional, direct approach, but NZ Rugby is also mindful of the series of assistant coaches, including Kendrick Lynn (now Pumas attack coach), Tom Donnelly (Wallabies lineout), Dave Dillon, and Riki Flutey, who have recently left the Highlanders.
Some players also find it challenging to cope with Joseph’s intense, physical training sessions.
The Highlanders have historically struggled to consistently compete with other New Zealand franchises for talent, which provides context for Joseph’s 49.15% win rate (58 out of 118 matches) with the team.
While Joseph’s Highlanders began this season on a high note, last year concluded with three wins, 11 losses, and the wooden spoon.
At the Test level, Joseph led Japan to their first World Cup quarterfinal appearance in 2019 after topping their pool with notable victories against Ireland and Scotland.
Following that achievement, Joseph’s 45% win rate (23 wins from 51 matches) with Japan includes victories against tier two nations – Uruguay, South Korea, Hong Kong, Georgia, Romania, Tonga, Russia, USA, Samoa, Portugal, and Chile.
Rennie, in my opinion, stands out as the leading candidate.
From Wellington to Manawatū, the Chiefs, Glasgow, the Wallabies, and Kobe in Japan, Rennie’s influence is evident.
He secured Wellington’s first provincial title in 14 years and guided the New Zealand under-20s to three unbeaten World Cups, winning 15 consecutive matches, but it was at the Chiefs where he made a lasting impact.
Taking charge in 2012, alongside the influential Wayne Smith, Rennie quickly revitalized the Chiefs squad that had finished 11th and 10th in the previous two years under Ian Foster, bringing in players like Aaron Cruden, Ben Tameifuna, Brodie Retallick, and Sonny Bill Williams.
While those were prominent signings, Rennie meticulously analyzed data to prioritize his Chiefs squad based on work ethic and character.
After his time with the Chiefs, where Rennie achieved a 66.7% win rate (71 out of 106 matches), second only to Clayton McMillan, he led Glasgow to the top of Pro 14 during his two seasons in charge.
Rennie faced challenges with the Wallabies, finishing with a 38.2% win record after his tenure was abruptly ended by former Rugby Australia chairman Hamish McLennan in his eagerness to hire Eddie Jones, but those statistics do not convey the complete picture.
Under Rennie, the Wallabies triumphed over Rassie Erasmus’ Springboks in three out of four Tests. Despite their struggles for results, many senior Wallabies publicly expressed their discontent with Rennie’s dismissal, indicating strong support within the player group.
The Wallabies would have been a much more cohesive and prepared team than the dysfunctional squad Jones led to exit the 2023 World Cup pool stages for the first time in history.
Rennie is an independent thinker and, as a result, experienced tensions with the NZ Rugby hierarchy, partly because he remained loyal to the Chiefs and did not always comply with requests for All Blacks player rotations.
He has consistently been held in high regard. At the Wairarapa Bush rugby sports award function, Sir Graham Henry lamented NZ Rugby’s decision to allow Rennie to coach the Wallabies, asserting he should have been the All Blacks coach instead of Ian Foster.
A change in management at NZ Rugby, with a new chief executive, chair, and board since Rennie’s tenure at the Chiefs, should also help ensure that no lingering grievances remain.
On the field, amidst the excitement surrounding the Highlanders’ first-round victory, Rennie’s Kobe Steelers defeated Todd Blackadder’s Toshiba Brave Lupus in Japan Rugby League One last weekend, continuing their upward trajectory under his leadership.
Joseph may have started as the favorite, and his presence in New Zealand could give him an advantage, but as a recognized man manager with a proven track record, Rennie’s qualifications should stand out in the process of selecting the next All Blacks coach.
