Betting Guide for the Genesis Invitational: Top Wagers, DFS Advice, and Additional Insights

The Genesis Invitational returns to Riviera Country Club after last year’s shift to Torrey Pines due to wildfires, and this significantly alters the dynamics. At Torrey, players aimed to score around 12 under, whereas Riviera typically requires closer to 17 under to secure victory. Both courses are labeled as “hard,” yet the scoring pressures are entirely different. At Riviera, players must possess exceptional iron play and finesse around the greens, but they also need to capitalize on their opportunities.

I am focusing on players who can generate birdie chances with their approach shots, recover effectively when they miss greens, and take advantage of any momentum. Riviera is a course that prioritizes iron play, is sensitive to Poa annua grass, and distinguishes competitors based on their consistency from tee to green.

From a betting perspective, I find this board less appealing. Many Top 20 odds are inflated, and I am not inclined to pay extra just to have action. I seldom engage in Top 10 bets unless there is a compelling case for it. Thus, this is a limited card, albeit not an attractive one, which means opting out is always an option. If we are participating, here is what I have.

Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and subject to change.

Best bets

Hideki Matsuyama: Top 10 (+170)

Full odds

• Top 20 (-142)

• Top 5 (+365)

• To win (22-1)

I typically focus on Top 20 bets as that is where consistency is rewarded, but Matsuyama is one of the few players I am willing to elevate to a Top 10 this week due to his potential for spikes in performance.

Matsuyama’s game is tailored for challenging golf courses. He excels with his irons, ranks in the top ten in the field from tee to green, leads around the greens, and is among the top scramblers on tour. This means that when he misses a green, he is able to recover, keeping his rounds competitive and avoiding high scores.

He has previously won at this venue but also has two missed cuts, indicating some volatility. However, if his iron play is sharp and he finds his rhythm with his short game, Matsuyama can ascend the leaderboard. This is why I am comfortable with the Top 10 bet, as I view him more as a Top 5 candidate—a high-ceiling option.

Maverick McNealy: Top 20 (+115)

Full odds:

• Top 10 (+280)

• Top 5 (+620)

• To win (41-1)

McNealy is undervalued by the market. The plus-money odds for a Top 20 reflect some skepticism. Perhaps it is due to his inconsistent putting or lack of distance off the tee, but that is acceptable since Riviera requires precision.

Riviera is a course that emphasizes approach play, with missed greens integrated into its design. Players must create opportunities with their irons and then navigate around the greens. This is where McNealy fits in quietly. He ranks in the top 25 from tee to green, has adequate distance off the tee, and—more importantly—displays accuracy from the fairway. His putting also contributes positively (top 10 in the field) on a course that tends to neutralize elite putters while rewarding those who maintain steadiness on Poa and convert scoring chances. McNealy excels in this regard.

He has a T7 finish at Riviera in 2022, gaining over nine strokes overall, and finished 10th at Torrey Pines earlier this month, indicating his preference for long, challenging courses where tee to green performance is crucial. A Top 20 requires solid ball striking and average saves, which aligns with his current form and the profile for Riviera. This is a respected wager.

Scottie Scheffler: To Win (+320)

Full odds:

• Top 10 (-300)

• Top 5 (-144)

This price may raise some eyebrows. It appears short and costly, resembling retail pricing, but upon examining the field, one might think, “Scottie is likely to win this week.”

He sets the standard as his game is adaptable to any course, but what makes this week intriguing is that his iron play, which remains in the top five in the field, has been the “weakest” aspect of his game, and that speaks volumes. When your baseline is that elevated, perfection is not a necessity.

He also ranks first from tee to green and off the tee, and third in scrambling. Positioning oneself, missing in the right areas, and surviving when greens are missed are areas where Scottie excels more than anyone else. Even if his iron play is not at its peak, it is still sufficiently elite to create opportunities. When he does miss, he has an exceptional rate of saving par.

This year, his opening rounds have not been sharp, losing strokes from tee to green on Thursdays. The splits are notable: negative on Thursday, followed by gains of three or minus three strokes from Friday through Sunday. I would not classify that as volatility, but rather as calibration. He learns the course and then dominates the competition.

The price may seem unattractive, but it reflects the best golfer in the world on a course that amplifies his advantages. Waiting for a better price? One should not forfeit the pre-tournament price in hopes of a hypothetical decrease. The sportsbooks are aware of this trend as well. If he trails by a few strokes, you might see +400, which is not a significant discount relative to his actual win probability.

A Top 5 at -144 is acceptable but thin for a player whose win equity is substantial here. If his profile aligns with the winners’ template and he is the top tee to green player, +320 is not excessive. It is warranted.

Players to consider for Daily Fantasy

Play daily fantasy golf at DraftKings.

Ryo Hisatsune $6,800: This represents pure potential. He currently ranks in the top 10 from tee to green with a top 25 approach and strong Poa putting. Ball striking is crucial here for differentiation, and putting merely needs to be average. He has achieved three consecutive top 10 finishes, including a T2 at Torrey, T10 at Phoenix, and T8 at Pebble—three challenging setups that highlight his iron capabilities. The risk is evident: it is his first start at Riviera and his scrambling is average, but at this price, you are investing in approach potential and recent performance. If his irons perform well, a Top 25 finish is feasible.

Patrick Cantlay $9,300: This is a conditional endorsement. You are paying for his fit at Riviera rather than his current form. He has previously gained double-digit strokes from tee to green here with multiple top 5 finishes, and his overall profile aligns with what is effective for this course—strong approach play, consistent off the tee, and neutral Poa putting. The concern lies in his volatility: if his iron play falters, it could be problematic since his scrambling is not elite. At this price, Cantlay is not a high-ceiling option like Scheffler, but rather a stability choice. He is viable for cash and single-entry formats or GPP only if ownership remains modest.

DFS player to fade

Jake Knapp $8,600: While he has five consecutive top 11 finishes and a T17 in this event last year, that was at Torrey Pines, not Riviera. Knapp’s current success is driven by exceptional driving distance and a hot putter. This is a strong combination, but not necessarily suited for this course. The focus should be on precision with approaches and finesse around the greens. He ranks poorly in both approach relative to the field, and his scrambling is average at best. This price reflects a recent surge while neglecting the fit for Riviera.