UWCL playoff round preview: Will Arsenal sustain their winning streak?
The first UEFA Women’s Champions League play-offs commence on Wednesday, marking a significant shift in the competition’s structure and elevating the stakes for the eight participating teams.
Teams that finished between fifth and twelfth in the league phase now engage in a high-stakes, two-legged contest to advance to the knockout stage. With minimal margin for error, the play-offs present differing motivations. Established clubs like Arsenal and Wolfsburg seek to reaffirm their status among Europe’s top teams, while Manchester United and OH Leuven aim to make history and build on what has already been an impressive debut season. Additionally, Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid are motivated by the opportunity to reclaim past successes, each striving to surpass their best performances in the tournament.
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Except for Wolfsburg and Juventus, who are familiar rivals from past tournaments, all other matchups feature teams that have already faced each other in the league phase. However, much has evolved since those earlier encounters, with the winter break and transfer window altering team dynamics, form, and momentum across the board.
With quarterfinal spots at stake by the end of March, the pressure is intense. The victors will move on to meet the four teams that secured automatic advancement to the knockout stage: Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Chelsea, and OL Lyonnes.
Arsenal vs. OH Leuven: Revitalized Arsenal pose a new challenge
The previous encounter between Arsenal and debutants OH Leuven occurred at the end of 2025 during a challenging phase for the reigning champions. A series of poor results had left them in need of not only a victory but also several favorable outcomes elsewhere to secure a top-four finish. Disappointing results in both the Champions League and the Women’s Super League (WSL) had effectively derailed their defense of the European title and their domestic pursuit of a first championship since 2019, with losses and draws nearly eliminating them from contention.
This context stands in stark contrast to the current two-legged play-off, as Arsenal has commenced the second half of the season in impressive form. Securing seven points from fellow top-three teams in their initial three league matches of the year has sent a strong message, including a narrow 1-0 win over champions-elect Manchester City that has slightly reopened the title race. This momentum has extended beyond domestic competitions, with Arsenal winning the inaugural FIFA Champions Cup and claiming the title of world champions, although they benefited from certain advantages.
Their 3-0 win against OH Leuven in the league phase occurred when Arsenal was struggling with attacking cohesion, frequently failing to convert opportunities, and displaying uncharacteristic defensive weaknesses. Despite the comfortable score, the performance was far from their best. Now, however, the title holders seem to have finally discovered their rhythm on both ends of the pitch, and OL Leuven is likely to face a much tougher challenge if they hope to reach the knockouts for the first time.
Paris FC vs. Real Madrid: Spanish side’s opportunity for an El Clasico knockout
Real Madrid was held to a 1-1 draw by Paris FC in the league phase, a result that encapsulated a season characterized by inconsistency. Expectations surrounding the team have frequently exceeded their performance on the field, but a potential breakthrough is on the horizon if they can successfully navigate the play-offs. Awaiting them could be the women’s Champions League’s first El Clasico since 2022 — a painful 5-2 defeat — but past disappointments may serve as motivation for this Madrid squad.
Madrid suffered 18 consecutive losses against the Catalans. However, their historic first Clasico victory in March 2025 has altered the narrative. That result not only bolstered confidence domestically but could also prove crucial in sharpening focus against Paris FC and reigniting ambitions to compete with Europe’s elite, including last season’s finalists and former champions.
Historically, Madrid has never advanced beyond the quarterfinals of the competition. The aspiration to finally break Barcelona’s dominance and achieve a first-ever semifinal appearance may be the driving force behind their efforts.
There is no shortage of determination or ambition within the squad, but the execution has been lacking on the pitch. Conversion remains their primary concern. Despite averaging over 20 shots per game this season, Madrid has consistently struggled to convert pressure into goals, often scoring only once or twice per match. If they can exhibit greater ruthlessness in front of goal, the path to their deepest Champions League run yet may finally open.
play2:13Potential El Clásico in Women’s Champions League quarterfinals
Take a look at the full Women’s Champions League knockout phase draw bracket.
Wolfsburg vs. Juventus: German side’s failure to maintain leads presents Juve’s best opportunity
Wolfsburg has often appeared in control during both individual matches and segments of the league phase this season, yet they have repeatedly found ways to relinquish those advantages. Few teams have been as consistently well-positioned, and few have been as frustrated by the outcomes. For instance, the German giants managed to hold leads in their opening two fixtures before eight-time champions OL Lyonnes handed them their first defeat of the season. A subsequent win over Manchester United seemed to stabilize their position, leaving Wolfsburg in a strong spot: if they could avoid defeat in their final two matches, a top-four finish would have been secured.
Instead, familiar issues resurfaced. Against Real Madrid, Wolfsburg failed to capitalize despite having a two-player advantage, suffering a damaging 2-0 defeat. Days later, an early lead against Chelsea once again slipped away, resulting in a 2-1 loss. They ranked 16th out of 18 league-phase teams in minutes spent trailing (166), which underscored a long-standing concern about the club: when Wolfsburg is in a dominant position, they too often struggle to maintain control and see matches through.
This inconsistency renders this fixture difficult to predict. History provides some reassurance — Wolfsburg remains one of the few winners of the competition — but recent years suggest a persistent psychological barrier. They have not lifted the trophy since 2014, and memories of the 2023 final remain fresh, when a commanding early 2-0 lead turned into a 4-2 defeat to Barcelona.
It is unlikely that Wolfsburg will have resolved this issue of relinquishing winning positions ahead of their clash with Juventus. Until they demonstrate otherwise, confidence in their ability to close out critical moments will remain tenuous, and the Italian side may seek to exploit these vulnerabilities to advance to the knockouts.
Atletico Madrid vs. Manchester United: Are we witnessing the rise of Atletico?
Atletico and United have already faced each other during the league phase, where the English debutants secured a narrow 1-0 victory. The Spanish side has quietly positioned themselves as one of the competition’s dark horses, successfully navigating the group stage without elimination and, on paper, securing one of the more favorable paths to the knockout rounds.
United, making their competition debut, pose a significant challenge. Aware of their earlier struggles in front of goal, they have bolstered their attacking options with three new signings to enhance their offensive capabilities. However, Atletico’s steady ascent has shifted the balance of the tie in their favor.
The heated match that saw both teams reduced to 10 players last time has only strengthened Atletico’s determination as they aim to make a statement on the European stage. The Spanish side scored 13 times across their six league-phase matches, highlighting their attacking prowess, and both teams arrive in improved form compared to their last meeting.
Atletico has also won four of their last five two-legged ties in UEFA competitions. In contrast, United’s limited experience at this level is reflected in a mixed record, with one win and one loss across two-legged ties.
For Atletico, this represents an opportunity to regain European momentum they have not truly felt since their quarter-final appearance in 2019-20. Having often struggled to qualify in recent seasons, an impressive league campaign last year has shifted perceptions. Now, there is growing belief that this run could extend further.
