UCL discussion points: Is Madrid, PSG, or Italian football in a more challenging position?

The knockout playoff stage of the UEFA Champions League wrapped up this week, and with Friday’s draw for the Round of 16 approaching, there is much to discuss.

Seventeen goals and three red cards across four matches marked a truly tumultuous evening on Wednesday, with Galatasaray narrowly defeating Juventus in extra time, Borussia Dortmund allowing Atalanta to come back from a two-goal deficit, and Benfica giving Real Madrid a scare before ultimately falling short.

The night before, Bodø/Glimt’s remarkable journey continued with a decisive 5-2 aggregate victory over Internazionale, while Atlético Madrid and Newcastle United comfortably overcame Club Brugge and FK Qarabag, respectively.

ESPN FC writers Mark Ogden, Sam Tighe, Julien Laurens, and Gab Marcotti analyze the events as they unfolded while we look forward to the Round of 16.

– UCL as it happened: Gala’s extra-time win over Juve caps chaotic day
– Kirkland: Viní Jr. brings star power, but worries abound for Real Madrid
– O’Halloran: The secret behind Bodø/Glimt’s European success

Q1. Real Madrid triumphed over Jose Mourinho’s Benfica 3-1 on aggregate, yet their performance was far from convincing. Is winning while underperforming indicative of a championship team? Or are Los Blancos at risk of faltering in the Champions League sooner rather than later?

Marcotti: I feel like I’m reiterating myself here. Real Madrid CAN win the Champions League (and LaLiga as well) because they possess a top goalkeeper in Thibaut Courtois and an exceptional goal-scorer in Kylian Mbappé. If you configure your team primarily to defend (with Courtois as a safety net) while waiting for one of the forwards to create something extraordinary, it might succeed, given their talent. However, it won’t appear convincing. It’s challenging to envision how any coach could make this mismatched group look convincing (Xabi Alonso might have had a chance, but we know how that turned out), much less Alvaro Arbeloa. This is the current state of football. The elite teams have so much talent that they don’t necessarily need to “look convincing” to secure victories.

Laurens: I disagree with Gab, and I hope I’m mistaken as I want Mbappé to win the Champions League, but I genuinely doubt this version of Real Madrid can clinch the title this season with this manager and this squad. I have seldom seen them dominate in every facet of a match. There always seems to be something lacking, and to win the Champions League, even in a mediocre season like this one, you must be able to play without deficiencies. You have the best goalkeeper in the world in Courtois, the best striker in the world in Mbappé, and one of the best wingers in the world in Vinícius Júnior, yet collectively, the overall structure is flawed.

play1:52Burley: Real Madrid don’t look like they can win the Champions League

Craig Burley evaluates Real Madrid’s Champions League prospects following their second-leg playoff victory over Benfica.

Tighe: I have witnessed Real Madrid perform poorly numerous times this season, yet that has often not prevented them from winning. As Gab points out, that’s the reality when you have elite players in crucial positions. However, I have never felt that Madrid’s individual talent and natural connection with this tournament can compensate for the fact that several other teams appear significantly stronger, making Los Blancos a long shot to win it all.

This latest display—a 2-1 home win over Benfica—changed nothing. Despite the victory, Madrid’s performance was subpar. Sloppy passing, constant turnovers… they barely managed. Benfica posed a consistent threat, scored, and hit the crossbar. Place Arbeloa’s team against a genuinely top-tier side—one that finished in the top four of the league phase—and let’s see the outcome.

Ogden: I’m conflicted on this matter because I believe Madrid’s midfield will falter against a truly elite team, yet I don’t think there is a genuinely elite team in the competition this season. Every other major team has flaws that Real could exploit, given they have lethal forwards in Mbappé, Vinícius, and Jude Bellingham who can—fitness permitting—always step up and score a crucial goal. Gab is correct about Courtois; he is the best goalkeeper in the world, so when you have the best keeper and the best forward—Mbappé—you certainly have the potential to win. It will ultimately depend on whether Real Madrid can perform consistently, but lesser teams than this one have won the Champions League.

Q2. AS Monaco challenged Paris Saint-Germain fiercely in their matchup, with Les Parisiens ultimately winning 5-4 on aggregate. Do the defending champions possess enough to secure back-to-back titles?

Laurens: I fear not, and I have come to terms with it. I would have loved for my Parisians to achieve back-to-back titles, but there is a reason only two clubs have accomplished this since the late 80s: AC Milan and Real Madrid. It is incredibly difficult to achieve. This PSG squad reached their peak last season with four remarkable months, defeating half of the Premier League and overpowering Inter Milan in the final. Everything aligned perfectly at that moment, and they are unlikely to replicate this, not just this season but probably ever again. For now, they remain in contention and will face Chelsea or Barcelona in the last 16. It could all end there, especially against the Catalans. However, it could also extend a bit longer with a fit Ousmane Dembélé, a healthy Fabián Ruiz, and Vitinha in improved form (can we also have Gianluigi Donnarumma back, please?). But going all the way again? Not this year.

Marcotti: PSG has suffered six losses this season across all competitions. Last year, despite their slow start, they had lost three. However, four of those six defeats were to French clubs, and there are no more French teams left in the competition. (The other two were against Bayern Munich and Sporting CP, where they were quite unfortunate). Therefore, I am not ready to dismiss them. I believe Juls is being overly harsh on his team. They are a youthful squad, brimming with energy, and compared to last season, they have gained another year of experience. On the downside, they downgraded their goalkeeper (sometimes I think Donnarumma alone is better than Matvey Safonov AND Lucas Chevalier combined). Yes, repeating is challenging, but there is no reason to count them out.

play1:26Moreno: PSG could get exposed in Champions League knockouts

Alejandro Moreno responds to PSG’s advancement to the Champions League knockout stage following a 5-4 aggregate victory over Monaco.

Ogden: I was in Paris for the second leg against Monaco, and I was struck by how lackluster PSG appeared. The atmosphere at the Parc des Princes was also unusually subdued. Perhaps everyone is simply fatigued from the past year? The mental burden of defending a title is challenging enough, but PSG also played until mid-July in the Club World Cup, so it’s no surprise they seem exhausted. I don’t foresee them defeating Barcelona in the next round, and I believe it’s a 50-50 chance against Chelsea. A year ago, PSG was like a whirlwind tearing through the competition, but all that energy has dissipated, and there is no way they will win it again this season.

Tighe: PSG has regressed significantly, which is quite disappointing. There are clear reasons for this—injury crises and the loss of a star goalkeeper, as previously mentioned—but it also illustrates how challenging it is to maintain an extraordinary level for more than half a year. With that in mind, I commend Pep Guardiola, who has kept his Barcelona and Manchester City teams performing at an exceptional rate for much longer. It’s difficult to envision Les Parisiens re-entering the conversation from this point onward.

Q3. Bodø/Glimt is the narrative of the 2025-26 Champions League; advancing further than any Norwegian team has before, achieving notable victories over Atlético, Man City, and Inter (twice) along the way. How far can this fairytale extend? And does their performance inspire hope for clubs outside Europe’s top five leagues in this competition?

Ogden: This largely hinges on Friday’s draw and whether Bodø avoids Manchester City and faces Sporting CP instead. I know Bodø convincingly defeated City—yes, it was a decisive victory—when they beat them 3-1 in Norway last month, but I just can’t envision lightning striking twice against Guardiola’s squad. Bodø could win again at home, but City will have learned from their experience in the Arctic Circle, and with the second leg at the Etihad, one would expect the Premier League side to secure a comfortable win.

Sporting, however, would present a different challenge. Bodø has triumphed over City and won away against Atlético Madrid and Inter, so the team from Portugal will not intimidate Kjetil Knutsen and his players. Indeed, every team outside the major leagues can draw inspiration from Bodø. If you are organized, recruit wisely, and have a clever coach, you can defeat the top teams.

Laurens: I concur with Oggy. If Bodø/Glimt faces Sporting, they will reach the quarterfinals. However, if they encounter Guardiola’s team, they will have their midweeks free again; Bodø cannot defeat Manchester City over two legs.

The most intriguing aspect of this entire Arctic Circle fairytale is that they did not win any of their first six matches in the league phase. Then they defeated City and Atlético and miraculously advanced into the top 24. There is much to learn from the Norwegians’ success regarding organization, culture, investment, and intensity.

play1:32Klinsmann: Inter exit to Bodø/Glimt ‘hugely embarrassing’

Jurgen Klinsmann labels Inter’s Champions League exit at the hands of Bodø/Glimt as a “catastrophe” for the Serie A leaders.

Marcotti: The thing about Bodø is that they operate on a high-risk, high-reward basis. They must, as they are up against opponents with far greater resources. They play with immense energy, function like clockwork, and are unafraid. This shocks larger teams, which is part of the reason for their success. Additionally, they possess remarkable mental strength: consider how they had not won until the final rounds of the group stage, yet still displayed resilience. Then there is the artificial pitch, the Arctic Circle, and all that entails, which also contributes.

I believe they can surprise anyone, but they also require many favorable circumstances (as they did in the first leg against Inter). Let’s simply label them the most unpredictable team remaining in the competition.

Tighe: The most remarkable aspect of this Bodø/Glimt squad is that many of their key players are essentially misfits—they moved to Europe’s top leagues, struggled to succeed, and ended up in the Arctic Circle, revitalizing their careers. Forward Jens Petter Hauge failed at AC Milan and Eintracht Frankfurt; Patrick Berg made a significant move to Lens but was sent back within a year; Kasper Høgh—the player who can’t stop scoring and assisting—is on his sixth Scandinavian club by age 25.

These players not only find themselves in the ideal environment, but they also feel they have something to prove to the world. That is a potent combination that knows no bounds.

Q4. Juventus were eliminated by Galatasaray, Inter were dismantled by Bodø, and Atalanta narrowly advanced past a Dortmund side that clearly has a penchant for self-sabotage. Additionally, Napoli didn’t even qualify for the knockout rounds! With the national team facing a playoff to qualify for the (expanded) World Cup, should we be concerned about the state of Italian football?

Laurens: Even Gab can be mistaken at times! Before the start of Tuesday’s matches, he told us: “Don’t worry, Inter and Atalanta will be fine…” Unfortunately, if you are a Nerazzurri supporter, you are not fine. Atalanta, currently seventh in Serie A, is on their second manager of the season and lost their best player, Ademola Lookman, in the January transfer window, are saving Italian football from total disgrace. And this is not surprising.

We watch Serie A every weekend: it is the league with the most 0-0 draws (by a significant margin) this season among the top five leagues, the league with the least intensity (except for Como and, to a lesser extent, Atalanta) among the top five leagues, and the league where 40-year-old Luka Modric is one of the best players this season. And I could continue…

In 2023, Serie A had a finalist in each of the three European competitions. The Italians lost all of them, and three years later, even those “successes” feel like a distant memory.

Tighe: There is no doubt that certain members of Italy’s traditional elite appear weak at present. One need only look back a few years to recall AC Milan and Inter competing in a Champions League semifinal! Less than a decade ago, Juventus acquired Cristiano Ronaldo for €100 million as they aimed to take the final step and win this competition. But now? Several traditional Serie A powerhouses seem to lack that presence at Europe’s highest level.

That said, there must be some nuance here. Knockout tournaments are inherently unpredictable, as Inter can clearly attest. They generated 2.29 xG in their 2-1 second-leg defeat to Bodø/Glimt after hitting the woodwork multiple times in the first leg. It’s football; sometimes things go awry. Add Napoli’s injury challenges (and the fact that they are managed by Antonio Conte, who typically struggles in Europe), and it’s worth considering whether some of this is simply… circumstantial.

play2:22Leboeuf & Marcotti clash over late penalty decision for Atalanta

Frank Leboeuf and Gab Marcotti discuss the penalty decision that allowed Atalanta to advance to the Champions League knockout stage.

Ogden: Italian football appears to be stagnant. The national team is facing the possibility of missing a third consecutive World Cup, and even if they qualify, the lack of quality in Gennaro Gattuso’s squad means they will struggle to progress beyond the knockout stages. Former Italy legend Alessandro Del Piero remarked earlier this week about a lack of investment in stadiums by the top Italian clubs and a talent drain that has seen the best Italian youngsters playing for clubs outside of Italy. He also mentioned the comfort zone that leads major clubs to trade players among themselves rather than seek talent in global markets.

It is astonishing to consider that, since Inter won the Champions League in 2010, only two European trophies have been claimed by Italian clubs: AS Roma (UEFA Conference League, 2022) and Atalanta (UEFA Europa League, 2024). The top players no longer play in Italy, and that is ultimately why their clubs are struggling in the Champions League.

Marcotti: Alright, I’ll engage. Juls, a distant memory? Serie A has sent as many teams to the Champions League final in the last four years as the Premier League. Serie A has numerous issues—one of the most significant is people (like Oggy) comparing it to the past when, between 1985 and around 2000, they routinely acquired the world’s best players and dominated the sport. The landscape has changed. European football is now dominated by the same 10-12 super-clubs, and for various reasons, Italy’s major clubs are not on par with the super-clubs in Spain, or Bayern, or PSG. That is essentially the crux of the matter.

Furthermore, Oggy is correct when he discusses complacency and poor leadership—less so regarding stadiums (they could certainly use an upgrade, but it won’t significantly impact the situation) and the national team (a lack of talent isn’t the reason they are in the playoffs). However, let’s also be a bit nuanced here.

Inter could have scored five in the first leg against Bodø, and we wouldn’t be having this discussion. Nor would we be discussing it if Florian Wirtz hadn’t taken a dive in injury time, as they would be in the Round of 16. Atalanta—sorry guys, I know you planned this question when you thought they were going out—are seventh in Serie A and eliminated Dortmund, who are second in the Bundesliga. And they accomplished this without their best midfielder and two starting strikers. So perhaps it’s time to take a step back.

Q5. Now that the playoff round is finished, which matchup are you hoping to see drawn in Friday’s last 16?

Marcotti: I really don’t have a preference, but since you’re asking nicely, Newcastle United vs. Barcelona would be entertaining and vibrant. Additionally, it would present a distinct contrast in styles (Anthony Gordon against that high line… how about that?). Bayern’s Jonathan Tah facing his former club, Bayer Leverkusen, would also be intriguing.

Laurens: You know my preference; I am a fan of blockbuster matches. I am not particularly interested in charming fairytale stories or ensuring as many smaller clubs as possible reach the later stages of the competition, so I desire significant games in the last 16. I want Atletico vs. Liverpool, Manchester City vs. Real Madrid, PSG vs. Chelsea, and Bayer Leverkusen vs. Bayern Munich.

The other matches, especially Newcastle vs. Barcelona, will be exciting to watch, like Atalanta vs. Arsenal, but all I request from UEFA is a plethora of big club vs. big club encounters in the next round!

play2:17Why is Woltemade playing out of position for Newcastle?

Craig Burley and Steve Nicol attempt to make sense of Newcastle utilizing striker Nick Woltemade in a deeper role.

Ogden: I align with Juls on this point. It feels like it has taken an eternity to reach the matches that matter in this season’s Champions