Stick or leave? Slot’s future with Liverpool takes center stage in UCL discussions.

The UEFA Champions League quarterfinals commenced this week, bringing with it a significant amount of drama to analyze, so let’s take a closer look.

On Tuesday, Arsenal managed a 1-0 victory at Sporting CP with a goal in injury time, while Real Madrid and Bayern Munich exchanged blows for 90 minutes, with the Bavarians holding a 2-1 advantage from the first leg to take back to the Allianz Arena.

On Wednesday evening, Barcelona fell into Diego Simeone’s strategy, losing 2-0 at home, with Pedri leaving the match due to injury (or was it a precaution?) and defender Pau Cubarsí receiving a red card late in the first half. Meanwhile, in France, Paris Saint-Germain had numerous opportunities to dominate a struggling Liverpool side lacking confidence and form, but had to settle for a 2-0 first-leg lead ahead of the return match at Anfield next week.

So, what can we conclude from all this? ESPN FC writers Mark Ogden, Gab Marcotti, Julien Laurens, and Sam Tighe are here to dissect the events as they unfolded and look forward to next week’s second legs.

– Kirkland: Real Madrid believes they can defeat Bayern. Are they correct?
– Ogden: Wasteful PSG leaves the door open for Liverpool in UCL
– VAR Review: Was Cubarsí’s red card justified?

Q1. Does PSG’s 2-0 victory over Liverpool reflect more on the Parisians or Arne Slot? The Reds attempted a drastic formation change and created nothing, with it seeming inevitable that Luis Enrique’s team would overwhelm the visitors’ desperate defense. This may well be Liverpool’s worst performance under Slot as well …

Tighe: Realistically, Liverpool felt doomed in this match even before it began. A team this fragile, flawed, and prone to late-game leaks cannot be expected to go to the Parc des Princes and secure a result. Slot appeared to recognize that the usual strategy would not suffice, so he altered it and deployed three center backs in a 5-2-1-2-like formation.

The intention seemed to be to prevent PSG from completely dominating by utilizing wide combinations while leveraging Dominik Szoboszlai’s energy to support the attack, but the consequence of this tactical shift was that Vitinha and his teammates had ample time to control the game from central positions, where Ryan Gravenberch and Alexis Mac Allister struggled significantly. I’m not sure we gained any insights about the Reds (except that Alexander Isak is fit again), but it was confirmed that PSG, the reigning European champions, are performing well at just the right moment in the season.

Marcotti: We can continue to blame Slot for everything (it’s his fault the Strait of Hormuz hasn’t reopened yet, right?) and, sure, attempting to surprise PSG with a formation you’ve never utilized or practiced before seems unwise in hindsight. But what’s the alternative? Doing nothing, trying to face them head-on and getting overwhelmed? They experienced that against Manchester City in the FA Cup just days prior.

The main issue I have with Slot is waiting until 12 minutes from the end to make a quadruple substitution (and none of the substitutes being Mohamed Salah). And then being fortunate that the final score was 2-0, rather than four or five down. Should we blame him for the fact that Liverpool’s first shot on goal came four minutes into the second half? Fine, go ahead, that’s all his fault too and not due to recruitment issues. The reality is that Liverpool remains in this tie at 2-0 down, so he can take some solace in that. He may not be a genius, but making this all about him and his shortcomings isn’t fair.

play1:10Nicol: PSG could’ve scored six against Liverpool

Steve Nicol states that Liverpool will be grateful to be just two goals down heading into the second leg against PSG at Anfield.

Ogden: Liverpool are absolutely still in this tie, and Luis Enrique should be furious about that. He appeared quite relaxed during his post-match press conference, but PSG should have won by five or six, and their failure to do so might haunt them at Anfield. PSG was so dominant that they began to show off with tricks and flicks, which is why Luis Enrique should be upset with his players. Just get the job done and then play around.

Perhaps the PSG manager’s calm demeanor was due to his awareness that this Liverpool side is beginning to falter, and a group of players performing so poorly are unlikely to suddenly turn things around to salvage the tie at Anfield. Slot attempted a new formation because he lacks depth in midfield and his forwards do not work hard enough. It didn’t succeed in Paris, and Liverpool is unlikely to reverse the situation next week, but they still have a chance, which is essentially all Slot was hoping for.

Laurens: PSG executed what they have been doing best for over a year now. Therefore, we must scrutinize Slot and the mess he created again on Wednesday. His back five was utterly ineffective, he instructed his team to merely defend (only three shots, none on target, and 0.18xG), and the players — who have been underperforming all season long (and that’s not solely on Slot) — appeared lost.

Speaking of lost, it seems to me that Slot has lost the team. Observe the expressions of Florian Wirtz and Szoboszlai when they were substituted. Look at Salah’s face on the bench when he realized he was not coming on. The issues at the club extend beyond just the manager, but he is not aiding himself or his team either. He has struggled all season to find the right formula to address the Reds’ problems, and he has yet to find a solution. Liverpool should have lost 5-0 in Paris and were fortunate to escape with a lesser scoreline. That’s not the Liverpool we recognize.

Q2. Real Madrid and Bayern provided an entertaining first leg that featured 40 combined shots and 4.96 xG between the two teams. Ultimately, was it the goalkeeping that made the difference? Manuel Neuer truly turned back the clock with a remarkable performance to deny Kylian Mbappé repeatedly, while Andriy Lunin arguably could have performed better. Or was it something else?

Laurens: We have known since the beginning of the season that Real Madrid needed to avoid two specific players suffering serious injuries, as losing either or both could derail their campaign. The first was Mbappé, and the second was Thibaut Courtois. Without the Frenchman, the Merengues managed to stay on course, but not having the Belgian for a match of this significance was a significant setback, and Madrid paid the price.

Lunin is a competent backup keeper, but he isn’t capable of winning games (or preventing losses) like Neuer can — and like he did on Tuesday night at the Bernabéu. Courtois would likely not have conceded Harry Kane’s goal, and it’s fair to say he would have certainly strengthened the hosts’ defense. For Neuer, at 40, it’s further evidence that he is one of the greatest goalkeepers of all time. SC Freiburg in the Bundesliga doesn’t excite him as much anymore. Give him Real Madrid under the lights in the Champions League, and he is your man!

Marcotti: The goalkeeping was a significant aspect of the narrative, indeed. Juls is correct: there’s no way Courtois concedes that goal to Kane, while two of the three saves Neuer made against Mbappé were truly exceptional. Even if you’re not a fan of Neuer, you must appreciate that given his injuries, his age of 40, and what transpired the last time he played at the Bernabéu, when Joselu scored twice.

That said, I believe an equally significant part of the story is Bayern’s inability to maintain a two-goal lead. They thoroughly dominated Real Madrid in the first half and should have been ahead by more than just a goal. Then, at 2-0, with the fans anxious and Madrid manager Alvaro Arbeloa making adjustments, you must see the game out. There’s a vast difference between coming back from two goals down on the road compared to one goal. You cannot afford to concede that many chances. The only mitigating factor, I suppose, is the Bernabéu and the old adage that time seems to slow down when Real Madrid needs to come from behind. But this is Bayern; surely “stage fright” shouldn’t be a factor?

play1:24Will Bayern Munich pay for missed chances against Real Madrid?

Frank Leboeuf believes Bayern Munich’s “sloppiness” allowed Real Madrid back into the game.

Ogden: I think Neuer reminded us all at the Bernabéu of the importance of having a world-class goalkeeper. Madrid were without theirs and ended up on the losing side, largely due to Neuer’s heroics and Lunin’s less impressive performance. And who knows? Perhaps PSG will miss out on back-to-back Champions League titles because they let Gianluigi Donnarumma go and ended up with two keepers who aren’t as skilled as the Italy No. 1, even if you combined them in goal.

There’s no doubt that Neuer has given Bayern a significant advantage heading into the second leg, but it’s still too close to call. If Real shows up with Mbappé, Vinícius Júnior, and Jude Bellingham in form next week, they can easily turn this tie around and advance to the semifinals. It may come down to which goalkeeper performs best once again.

Tighe: I’m glad you mentioned Bayern’s dominance during the match, Gab. If you missed the game and judged it by either the highlight reel or the statistics sheet — where Madrid matched Bayern’s 20 shots, had one more (nine) on target, and created one more big chance (four) — you’d think this was an evenly matched game. For the most part, it was not.

However, those last 15 minutes felt like anyone’s game. It seems less that Bayern couldn’t control the match and more that they didn’t appear interested in doing so, or that Bellingham made such a difference in midfield that Joshua Kimmich and Aleksandar Pavlovic suddenly struggled. That’s when Neuer became particularly crucial.

It seems like a risky tactic given the 40-year-old’s form has been quite inconsistent this season — unlike, say, that of Courtois, whom you can feel comfortable relying on. But it appears that this Bayern team is determined to attack their way to potential Champions League glory, so Neuer may need to deliver a few more standout performances yet.

Q3. Arsenal faltered again Tuesday night in Lisbon, posting below-par attacking statistics and taking a slim 1-0 first leg lead back to the Emirates thanks to Kai Havertz’s injury-time goal. It wasn’t a classic match, but David Raya (continuing the goalkeeper theme) and Mikel Arteta’s substitutions altered the game. Can we still regard Arsenal as a favorite in this competition considering their recent underwhelming performances?

Marcotti: You mentioned a favorite, right? Given they’re 1-0 up before the home leg, which bodes well for the semifinals, yes, you must say they’re a favorite, but I think — and not for the first time — that we’ve seen Arsenal’s limitations against well-organized opponents. Solidity, intensity, and set-pieces only take you so far.

Against Sporting, they missed Bukayo Saka and the “real” Martin Ødegaard, but neither has been a significant contributor this year. Injuries are part of it, but I believe there’s also a deliberate choice in adopting a more defensive approach from Arteta that has hindered their output. Perhaps it was the right decision in terms of giving Arsenal the best chance to win the Premier League, but in a two-legged format deep in the Champions League, it can restrict what you can achieve.

As for Raya, he has been exceptional for most of the season. I suspect most people would have Gabriel Magalhães, Declan Rice, or William Saliba ahead of him as Arsenal’s Player of the Year, but Raya should be right up there.

Laurens: I’m not sure why people are surprised or disappointed by the current level and style of this Arsenal team. Their identity is not based on free-flowing, attacking football. They are capable of impressive performances and have demonstrated this many times this season (against Bayern, for instance), but when you are missing four starters (Saka, Eberechi Eze, Piero Hincapié, Jurriën Timber), it becomes more challenging. Arsenal, however, are also a team trained for control; they are arguably the best tactically in the world right now, the most physical side, and the strongest team out of possession — where structure comes first, before any rotations or variations. That’s why they excel.

So, naturally, they are still a favorite to win this competition. No one would want to face them in the next round, especially since they are guaranteed to play the semifinal second leg at home if they qualify.

play1:10Burley: Arsenal were dull and boring vs Sporting CP

Craig Burley believes Arsenal were underwhelming and failed to impress despite their 1-0 victory over Sporting CP.

Ogden: Arsenal remain a favorite due to their style of play. Against Sporting, although the home side played the better football, created superior patterns, and had the best chances, it was Arsenal who dominated every physical aspect of the game. It can be quite disheartening to watch at times because there is a genuine possibility that Arsenal could bully their way to Champions League success, and nobody wants that, do they? Well, every Arsenal supporter does, but there is no fantasy with this team. It’s all about strength.

I think Juls is being a bit excessive with the praise, though: are they the best team tactically in the world? I’m not so sure about that, and they don’t control games like PSG does. But ultimately, the game is about winning, and Arsenal has consistently found a way to do that in the Champions League. They might face their match if they encounter Atlético in the semifinals — that won’t be a game for purists — but Arsenal is what they are, and no one at the Emirates should apologize for that.

Tighe: Arsenal’s style (or lack thereof, depending on who you ask) does not alter my view on their Champions League prospects. What does concern me slightly is what appears to be a decline in confidence levels. At this stage of the tournament, any team positioning themselves as a true favorite should feel as though they are hitting top form, playing with the utmost confidence in themselves and each other — regardless of how that manifests stylistically.

Can we assert that Arsenal is reaching that point? I would argue no — or at least not in the same manner that Bayern has found another level, or PSG seems to be clicking into gear. Very soon, there will be only four teams remaining, and if Arsenal is one of them, it’s likely they will rank third, at best, in my mini-ranking of likely winners.

Q4. Hansi Flick and Barça won both LaLiga matches against Atleti, but the cup competitions have proven much more the latter’s speed as Flick’s insistence on always pushing for goals plays into Diego Simeone’s strengths. Was the Cubarsí red card legitimate? And will Atleti regret only taking a 2-0 lead back home with them to defend next week?

Marcotti: No, I believe Simeone will be satisfied with the 2-0 overall. However, the intriguing aspect is how both coaches were quite counterintuitive at halftime. Cubarsí had just been sent off (and, yes, I believe it was the correct decision), and moving Eric García (who was outstanding, by the way, not something I often say) into the back made sense, but it was surprising to see Pedri substituted for Gavi. (Fermín López for Robert Lewandowski was a no-brainer).

Even more surprising was how Barcelona went for it, as if they needed to secure a result that very night. Conventional wisdom would have suggested a more conservative approach, perhaps picking their moments on the counter and trusting themselves to overturn the 1-0 deficit in the return leg. But Flick executed his strategy: Barça had 60% possession and 0.61 xG after the break, despite being a man down. His game plan — except for that Alexander Sørloth moment — was effective.

As for Atleti, they were genuinely unsettled by Barça’s press. The obvious strategy would have been to push for not just 2-0, but even more. Instead, they managed only a single shot. I suppose 2-0 is better than 1-0, but I would still feel extremely anxious for the return leg. At one point, Lamine Yamal dribbled past eight opponents, which speaks volumes about the night he was having. Perhaps that’s why Atleti hesitated.

Tighe: Simeone should not lament “only” being 2-0 up at the halfway point in this tie. After all, his team managed just one shot in the second half, despite playing against 10 men the entire time. They struggled out of possession and against the press, despite having the numerical advantage, and generally appeared the weaker side in that second period. Yamal’s performance was breathtaking at times, giving Michael Olise a serious challenge for the round’s best right winger. Some of his dribbles into the box, weaving around one, two, three defenders, were simply magnificent. Atleti felt fortunate to leave without conceding at least once to him alone.

This tie still feels very much alive to me — especially considering Atlético will be compelled to field a makeshift defense in the second leg, given Marc Pubill’s suspension, Dávid Hancko’s injury, and Jose Gimenez’s ongoing fitness issues.

play1:45Was Pau Cubarsi’s red card vs. Atletico the right call?

Frank Leboeuf and Stewart Robson debate the decision to issue Barcelona’s Pau Cubarsi a red card in their first leg defeat to Atletico Madrid.

Ogden: Apologies Gab, but the Cubarsi red card was questionable. Giuliano Simeone’s flailing leg was intended to make contact with