Reasons Chelsea and Manchester United require League Cup achievement – and their potential pathways to it

The opportunity for silverware is here as Chelsea’s women’s team aims to defend their League Cup title against Manchester United on Sunday.

Both teams have experienced their share of highs and lows this season, but which one will emerge victorious?

Why is it important for Chelsea to win?

Chelsea has not finished a season without a trophy since 2018-19 and is eager to avoid extending that streak. However, their current situation has become increasingly uncertain.

In the Women’s Super League (WSL), despite having claimed the last six titles, they find themselves nine points behind Manchester City at the top and are at risk of dropping out of the top three. This reality places even greater importance on domestic cup competitions.

It is hard to envision fans or players considering a campaign successful if Chelsea were to achieve an FA Cup and League Cup double, particularly if they face an unexpected exit from the Champions League knockout rounds against either Arsenal (quarterfinals) or Wolfsburg/OL Lyonnes (semifinals). Nevertheless, those trophies remain significant.

Manager Sonia Bompastor recently extended her contract until 2030, despite consecutive league defeats, and finishing this season without any trophies would slightly shift perceptions of her inaugural campaign in charge, during which she led the team to an unbeaten league finish and secured both the FA Cup and League Cup.

The stakes have been raised further by off-field uncertainties. This summer marks the club’s first transfer window in over a decade without Paul Green, the head of women’s football, who managed squad planning for 12 years before leaving last month. Bompastor has already started to reshape the squad she inherited from former manager Emma Hayes—a transition that may partly explain Chelsea’s inconsistency this season—but her ability to construct a dominant team capable of competing across all fronts could heavily rely on how this campaign concludes.

Securing some silverware would enhance morale for the future and could significantly impact next season. — Emily Keogh

What strategies can Chelsea employ to win?

The defending champions need not look far for motivation; Bompastor’s team recently eliminated Manchester United from the FA Cup with a 2-1 victory after extra time, with goals from Naomi Girma and Sam Kerr, both originating from set pieces.

Indeed, manager Marc Skinner’s squad has displayed weaknesses from dead-ball situations this season, with nearly 30% of their conceded shots coming from set pieces—the second-highest percentage in the WSL this season (West Ham United, 29.5%). Additionally, 25% of United’s expected goals conceded (xGA) have resulted from set piece scenarios.

United have also allowed five headed goals this season in the WSL—only Aston Villa has allowed more (7)—and while Chelsea will miss Kerr’s aerial presence and Carpenter’s crossing ability (as both are participating in the Asian Cup with Australia), the Blues should aim to exploit this weakness.

Lauren James, Alyssa Thompson, and Johanna Rytting Kaneryd will be crucial in providing penetration and deliveries into the box, although Chelsea has appeared somewhat hesitant without a central attacking figure due to ongoing injury issues with Mayra Ramírez.

Another key area for Chelsea will be the midfield. Hinata Miyazawa and Julia Zigiotti Olme have formed the backbone of United’s midfield, but Miyazawa will be unavailable as she is also at the Asian Cup with Japan. Consequently, Bompastor can seek to overload United’s weakened center by deploying a midfield trio, aiming to force turnovers and penetrate the opposition’s box.

The three-time League Cup champions should strive to get players into the box as much as possible to take advantage of United’s difficulty in clearing their lines. — Yash Thakur

Why is it important for Manchester United to win?

Manchester United would view this season as a success even without a trophy, as their inaugural European campaign has seen them unexpectedly reach the knockout stages to face Bayern Munich in the quarterfinals. This achievement signifies clear progress for Skinner’s team and conveys a message across Europe that United can compete with the continent’s elite, although they still face notable challenges domestically.

Despite improvements compared to previous seasons, losses in crucial matches against Manchester City and disappointing draws against Chelsea and Arsenal indicate that United’s development is still a work in progress, and consistency remains elusive. With those dropped points likely ending any realistic WSL title challenge—they sit eight points behind City with six matches remaining—focus inevitably shifts to the cup competitions.

United secured the FA Cup in 2024, but a defeat to Chelsea in this season’s fifth round eliminated one option, making the League Cup their most viable chance to secure another trophy.

For a club whose women’s team was reestablished only in 2018, the trophy cabinet remains sparse. Aside from the 2019 promotion to the WSL, the only significant silverware in United’s collection is that 2024 FA Cup. Two years later, as another potentially trophyless season approaches, winning the League Cup would provide concrete evidence that United are on the rise. — Keogh

What strategies can Manchester United employ to win?

United’s attacking lineup has been effective this season, and they possess the second-highest number of goals in the WSL (35). Skinner has intriguing options in his attacking quartet of Elisabeth Terland, Melvine Malard, Jess Park, and Ellen Wangerheim, who can offer both directness and fluidity, but it is the wide players who will be crucial in this final.

Bompastor’s back three have appeared vulnerable this season, particularly in the spaces between the wide center backs and the wingbacks, and teams have targeted this area to find success against Chelsea. In fact, nearly 66% of the chances conceded by Chelsea have originated from the wide channels.

The dynamic nature of United’s forwards will be essential in exploiting these spaces and creating opportunities, and Carpenter’s absence weakens Chelsea’s right side.

If United seeks a strategy to defeat Chelsea this season, they should examine how Arsenal executed their 2-0 victory in January. The tactical approach involved overloading the center of the pitch and forcing turnovers in midfield.

In Bompastor’s 3-4-1-2 formation, midfielder Keira Walsh is tasked with ball progression and protection against transitions, so Skinner could aim to neutralize Walsh by establishing numerical superiority in the center of the field using Park. The former Manchester City forward could assume a role similar to that of Beth Mead in Arsenal’s win, as United engages in midfield duels and applies pressure on Chelsea’s center backs while restricting easy access to Walsh.

Chelsea also holds the lowest average ground duel win percentage in the WSL this season (45.8%), so United should aim to maximize their high turnover opportunities, initiate duels, and exploit spaces behind Chelsea’s midfield. — Thakur