Premier League Top 50: Evaluating the leading players of the season with one month remaining

We have arrived at a stage in the Premier League season where the competition resembles a knockout format. With a limited number of matches left, factors like tactics, team cohesion, and managerial choices become less significant than they are throughout the entire season. From this point onward, individual moments of brilliance—such as a remarkable save, an exquisite pass, or an outstanding goal—play a crucial role in shaping the outcomes.

This is evident at the top of the standings, where Manchester City could close the gap to Arsenal to just three points (along with a game in hand) if Pep Guardiola’s team secures a victory in their upcoming clash. The same holds true for the Champions League race, where there is an eight-point difference between third and eighth place. Additionally, the situation is critical at the bottom of the table, with 18th-place Tottenham trailing 17th-place West Ham by two points and 16th-place Nottingham Forest by three.

Which players will have the most influence on the remainder of the season? We present another edition of ESPN’s Premier League Top 50 to address this question.

Ranking Methodology and Eligibility Criteria

I mention this each time, but ranking players with any level of certainty is a challenging task. If my goal were solely to identify the true talent of every Premier League player, I would likely rely on market value, resulting in a list dominated by players from the top teams.

However, I prefer to acknowledge a standout player from Brentford over a squad member from Arsenal, so the rankings aim to strike a balance between raw talent and the actual value contributed this season. The rankings lean towards attackers, as they are the highest-paid athletes globally due to their significance, but I also consider midfielders who perform like attackers or defenders who excel in unique ways, as they will also rank highly.

In each edition, players sidelined with long-term injuries will be excluded from the list. For instance, Hugo Ekitike—who would have been a contender for the top 10 but recently ruptured his right Achilles—is not included. All injuries are unfortunate, but this one is particularly severe.

Now, let’s proceed to the list!

50. Mohamed Salah, forward, Liverpool

He is experiencing one of the most significant declines in performance we have seen from one season to the next. Nevertheless, among players with at least 1,500 minutes played this season, only Erling Haaland, Hugo Ekitike, Bruno Fernandes, and Bukayo Saka are producing more non-penalty expected goals+assists per 90 minutes.

49. Matheus Nunes, fullback, Manchester City

48. Eberechi Eze, attacking midfielder, Arsenal

47. Danny Welbeck, forward, Brighton

46. David Raya, goalkeeper, Arsenal

45. Mateus Fernandes, attacking midfielder, West Ham

44. Morgan Gibbs-White, attacking midfielder, Nottingham Forest

43. Bart Verbruggen, goalkeeper, Brighton

Measuring goalkeeping performance is notoriously inconsistent. Gradient Sports has discovered that the percentage of mistakes a goalkeeper makes on shots faced is the most stable statistic from season to season. This is assessed through its grading system, where any negative grade assigned to a goalkeeper is considered a mistake.

Verbruggen has made a mistake on only 1.5% of the shots he has faced this season, which is the second-best rate in the Premier League.

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42. Ollie Watkins, forward, Aston Villa

41. Martín Zubimendi, midfielder, Arsenal

40. Amad Diallo, winger, Manchester United

39. Iliman Ndiaye, attacking midfielder, Everton

38. Sander Berge, midfielder, Fulham

37. Emiliano Martínez, goalkeeper, Aston Villa

36. Michael Kayode, fullback, Brentford

35. Granit Xhaka, midfielder, Sunderland

34. Casemiro, midfielder, Manchester United

33. Bernardo Silva, midfielder, Manchester City

32. Sandro Tonali, midfielder, Newcastle United

31. Igor Thiago, forward, Brentford

30. Gianluigi Donnarumma, goalkeeper, Manchester City

Donnarumma has faced 93 shots this season and has made only one mistake, according to Gradient. This represents the best mistake-free rate in the league.

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29. Anthony Gordon, winger, Newcastle United

28. Cole Palmer, attacking midfielder, Chelsea

27. Jan Paul van Hecke, center back, Brighton

26. Ezri Konsa, center back, Aston Villa

25. Marcos Senesi, center back, Bournemouth

There are certain positions within specific teams or under particular managers that consistently yield strong performances. For example, strikers at Eintracht Frankfurt, attacking midfielders under Gian Piero Gasperini, and every attacker who has played for Hansi Flick. Now, perhaps center backs under Andoni Iraola are joining this list.

Last season, Dean Huijsen and Illia Zabarnyi performed well enough to earn transfers to Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain, respectively, and now Senesi is having a season that is quite remarkable. He ranks among the top attacking passers in the Premier League, despite his position as a center back.

While ball-playing center backs have always been valued, and they are often key players in the best teams globally, Senesi is not merely delivering line-breaking passes to his midfielders. He is creating chances as if he were an attacking midfielder, and this is not an exaggeration.

When examining the expected possession value generated from open-play passes this season—essentially how much a player’s passes have enhanced their team’s chances of scoring—seven players have produced at least five goals’ worth of value: Jérémy Doku, Adam Wharton, Cody Gakpo, Morgan Rogers, Pedro Neto, and Senesi. This includes five attackers, one highly offensive midfielder, and one central defender.

Senesi’s contract concludes at the end of the season. It will be intriguing to see if a club recognizes this unique skill set and finds a way to utilize it.

24. Rodri, midfielder, Manchester City

23. Morgan Rogers, attacking midfielder, Aston Villa

22. Florian Wirtz, attacking midfielder, Liverpool

Rogers and Wirtz may not appear similar in their movement or even in their static positions on the field. However, I believe they are quite comparable players.

Below is a chart illustrating what I refer to as “good passes” and “good receptions.” These are passes made or received that enhance the team’s expected possession value by between 1% and 9%. Achieving a 10% or greater increase in xPV from a single action is uncommon, so we can view these players as consistently adding marginal value to possessions.

Rogers and Wirtz stand out at the top of both metrics. Interestingly, while we are quantifying this, I would describe it as a form of hidden value. It does not involve goals and assists or even expected goals and assists, yet neither player is an unnoticed prospect. Wirtz is the second-most-expensive player in Premier League history, and Rogers has gained wider recognition this season due to his goal-scoring.

The potential for each player, as they are both still in their pre-prime years, lies in their ability to continue performing these small contributions while also increasing their goal creation and scoring.

21. Marc Guéhi, center back, Manchester City

20. Ryan Gravenberch, midfielder, Liverpool

19. Reece James, fullback/midfielder, Chelsea

18. Nico O’Reilly, fullback/midfielder, Manchester City

17. Antoine Semenyo, forward, Manchester City

16. Elliot Anderson, midfielder, Nottingham Forest

15. Adam Wharton, midfielder, Crystal Palace

Adam Wharton is the midfield equivalent of Marcos Senesi. While it may seem like a stretch, I believe I am the first to make this comparison.

Take a look at this!

Crystal Palace employs a chaotic style that encourages Wharton to make bold passes throughout the match, but his high grades would not be possible without his consistent ability to make significant plays. His composure under pressure and defensive skills raise questions for any potential suitor, but his exceptional ball-handling skills in nearly any scenario may warrant the largest clubs to construct their midfields around his passing and address any shortcomings elsewhere.

14. João Pedro, forward, Chelsea

If João Pedro were to participate in a different sport sharing the same name as the one he is currently compensated millions to play, commentators would likely remark every Sunday: This João Pedro individual? He’s simply a FOOTBALL player.

What do they mean by that? NFL commentators often refer to a football player as “a football player” to describe the type of football player they are discussing. They are not merely stating biographical facts, nor are they confused. What they imply—based on my observations from hearing this phrase countless times—is that these “football players” may not possess any standout attributes but excel at all the essential aspects of the game. Their inherent understanding and technical abilities suggest they were almost destined to play football.

I feel similarly about João