Premier League Standings Without Goals from Set Pieces: How Would They Appear?
Since October, we have been discussing this topic, and it continues to be a point of conversation every weekend: this season, the Premier League underwent a significant transformation — seemingly overnight.
While it may be reassuring to perceive the increase in set plays as part of the tactical shifts that characterize the evolution of a sport with minimal regulations, this situation feels distinctly different. At this stage in the previous two Premier League seasons, teams had collectively scored 798 and 737 goals from open play and penalties. This averages around 768 goals after 31 matches.
This season, however, that figure has dropped to 615 — a reduction of 20%. Compared to last season, it represents a 23% decline. This is not merely a fluctuation — it resembles a tidal wave.
In the midst of such a monumental tactical evolution, Arsenal stands out as a fitting champion-in-waiting. They recognized the true significance of set-piece goals ahead of most, and they are leveraging their exceptional prowess in this area to likely secure their first title in over two decades. The Gunners have netted 21 goals from set plays while allowing only eight, resulting in a differential of plus-13, which is more than double that of second-placed Manchester United’s plus-six.
As the Premier League title race approaches its conclusion, I invite you to join me on a journey through an alternate reality, revisiting the past and moving through to the present. What if, hypothetically, an extraterrestrial being obsessed with soccer grew weary of lengthy throw-ins and defensive walls? Letβs imagine this uniquely specific entity not only admired the high-energy, goal-driven management style of someone like Hansi Flick but also possessed the ability to manipulate a non-linear perception of time. Consequently, this being snapped its fingers/tentacles/hooves/disembodied matter and eliminated all set-piece goals from existence.
What would this Premier League season have looked like without set plays? And what could we anticipate? To explore this, I reviewed this season and excluded all goals resulting from free kicks, corner kicks, and throw-ins from the statistical records — then recalculated how it would have altered the outcome of every Premier League match this season.
Letβs examine how both the Premier League standings and the narrative of this season would appear if no set-piece goals had ever been scored.
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The first five weeks: Liverpool appear poised to repeat
The substantial summer investment at Anfield seems to be yielding results for Liverpool. The reigning champions hold a three-point advantage at the top of the table and have scored the highest number of goals of any team in the league.
Following an emotionally charged opening day victory against Bournemouth, Liverpool resembled the team we all recall from the previous season when they triumphed over Newcastle, 3-0, at St. James’s Park. Their only setback during the first five matches was a goalless draw at home against Arsenal.
However, this is often the outcome when Arsenal plays: they draw. Commentators have begun to speculate whether Mikel Arteta has become the modern equivalent of Jose Mourinho — a manager capable of establishing a style that prevents losses but struggles to secure enough victories to win a league title.
After five matches, following their own significant spending spree, the Gunners have conceded just one goal and scored five, but their cautious approach has resulted in two wins and three draws. They currently sit in sixth place, four points behind the leaders.
The Premier League top five:
1st: Liverpool: 13 points, plus-7 goal differential
2nd: Tottenham: 10 points, plus-5 GD
3rd: Chelsea: 10 points, plus-2 GD
4th: Sunderland: 10 points, plus-2 GD
5th: Bournemouth: 10 points, plus-1 GD
Biggest beneficiaries of the set-piece-free scenario: Chelsea, Sunderland, Brighton, and Burnley all have two additional points
Biggest loser: Everton have two fewer points
Weeks 6 through 10: Manchester City are back in form
After overhauling at least half of their roster in the past two transfer windows, Manchester City finally appears to be regaining their best form. Their plus-14 goal differential is the highest in the league.
After suffering defeats in two of their first three matches against Brighton and Tottenham, they have remained unbeaten in the following seven matches, achieving five victories and two draws — away at Arsenal and Aston Villa. They are now just one point behind the leaders, Liverpool.
Despite losing their opening match of the season to a last-minute goal from EstΓͺvΓ£o at Stamford Bridge, Liverpool managed to secure a narrow 1-0 victory at Crystal Palace, and they endured a 1-1 draw with Manchester United at Anfield and a 2-2 draw with Brentford in London.
Liverpool’s schedule is set to become more manageable, having already faced away matches against Newcastle and Chelsea, as well as home games against Arsenal and Manchester United, along with challenging fixtures against midtable teams Bournemouth, Palace, and Brentford. However, they first head to the Etihad for a top-of-the-table encounter with Manchester City.
Arsenal has climbed to fourth place, three points behind Liverpool, and they have only conceded a single goal through 10 matches. This may be the most defensively solid team we have ever witnessed, and they remain the only unbeaten side in England’s top division. Unfortunately, they have scored only eight goals — the fifth fewest in the league.
The Premier League top five:
1st: Liverpool: 21 points, plus-9 GD
2nd: Manchester City: 20 points, plus-14 GD
3rd: Tottenham: 19 points, plus-5 GD
4th: Arsenal: 18 points, plus-7 GD
5th: Chelsea: 18 points, plus-3 GD
Biggest beneficiaries: Liverpool, West Ham, and Nottingham Forest all have three more points
Biggest losers: Arsenal have seven fewer points
Weeks 11 through 15: Arsenal should not be dismissed yet
Are things starting to unravel at Anfield? Liverpool played Real Madrid to a goalless draw at home in the Champions League, and then went another 45 minutes without a goal from either side against Manchester City.
This was expected to be a fluid, dynamic attack with all the talent acquired over the summer, but some analysts have begun to question whether Liverpool manager Arne Slot is merely riding the momentum of the Jurgen Klopp era in his inaugural season with the club. Can his version of Liverpool replicate the attacking threat of his predecessor?
City ultimately won the match 2-0, thanks to two long-range strikes from Nico Gonzalez and JΓ©rΓ©my Doku. More optimistic analysts argue that goals from players who rarely score are more a matter of bad luck than anything else — but then Liverpool suffered a 1-0 defeat at home to Nottingham Forest in their next match.
Liverpool has now gone three consecutive matches without scoring. They eventually regained their form with a thrilling 3-2 victory over Leeds at Elland Road, but we are now 15 games into the season and Premier League record signing Alexander Isak has yet to find the net.
Arsenal extended their unbeaten streak to 14 matches and began to secure victories, including a challenging 2-1 win away at Sunderland and a 1-0 victory over Chelsea that turned out to be one of the dullest matches of the season after MoisΓ©s Caicedo was sent off in the 38th minute. They briefly ascended to the top of the table, only to fall back to second place following a 2-1 defeat to their former manager Unai Emery and Aston Villa.
Aside from a 1-0 loss at Newcastle, Manchester City has been nearly flawless since their early-season difficulties, which cannot be said for their neighbors at Old Trafford. Manchester United has accumulated just 21 points through 15 matches and finds themselves in the bottom half of the table for the second consecutive year under Ruben Amorim.
Following a 1-0 defeat to Crystal Palace, a controversial idea begins to circulate among some former players and current television personalities, suggesting that the Glazer family should reclaim control of the club from Jim Ratcliffe.
The Premier League top five:
1st: Manchester City: 32 points, plus-20 GD
2nd: Arsenal: 30 points, plus-13 GD
3rd: Liverpool: 28 points, plus-8 GD
3rd: Chelsea: 25 points, plus-6 GD
T-5th: Aston Villa and Crystal Palace: 25 points, plus-5 GD
Biggest beneficiaries: Burnley have six more points, Liverpool five
Biggest losers: Everton and Aston Villa have five fewer points
Weeks 16 through 20: A three-way title race
Typically, a 1-1 draw at home against Wolves, who have only six points through 20 matches, is the kind of result that jeopardizes your title aspirations. Following that up with another 1-1 draw against Brighton at home two weeks later? This is when everyone begins to question if Arsenal possesses the mental strength to secure a major trophy. However, the Gunners responded with a convincing 3-1 victory over Aston Villa, while City experienced a streak of three consecutive draws: away to Forest and Sunderland and at home against Chelsea.
Liverpool, on the other hand, has won four of their last five matches. In their encounter with Fulham, Harrison Reed scored what could be the goal of the season — a diving, swirling shot that was his first in nearly three years, coming from his first attempt of the campaign — but it quickly became a mere footnote. After all, it was only a consolation goal in the dying moments of a match Liverpool was already leading, 2-0.
After 20 matches, there is a three-way tie for first place, and everyone anticipates one of the most thrilling title races in recent memory.
A bit further down the standings, Crystal Palace is just two points shy of the fifth and (likely) final Champions League spot despite losing Eberechi Eze to Arsenal over the summer. Every club globally is eager to hire Oliver Glasner as manager, but he insists he is very content in his current role with Crystal Palace and will not entertain questions about his future until the season concludes. His focus remains on qualifying for the Champions League.
All of the recently promoted teams are fighting to stay afloat: Sunderland is sliding down the table, only four points ahead of Leeds in 18th, while Burnley is just one point above the relegation zone in 17th.
The Premier League top five:
1st: Manchester City: 41 points, plus-26 GD
2nd: Arsenal: 41 points, plus-17 GD
3rd: Liverpool: 41 points, plus-14 GD
4th: Aston Villa: 37 points, plus-8 GD
5th: Chelsea: 33 points, plus-9 GD
Biggest beneficiaries: Burnley have eight more points, Liverpool and Bournemouth seven
Biggest losers: Arsenal and Sunderland have seven fewer points
Weeks 21 through 25: New managers at Chelsea and Manchester United; only two teams at the summit
Chelsea owners Todd Boehly and Clearlake Capital clearly aimed to part ways with Enzo Maresca around the Bournemouth match after the new year — but they couldn’t do so after a decisive 2-0 victory, nor after a 1-1 draw away against Manchester City. Ultimately, they severed ties with their manager following a perplexing 2-0 defeat to Fulham.
Despite frequent assertions regarding the independence of the two BlueCo-owned clubs, they appointed Liam Rosenior, the Strasbourg manager, as the new Chelsea manager.
Rosenior communicates as if he has absorbed all the wrong self-help literature, and videos have surfaced of him urging his players to treat the soccer ball as if it were a sacred object containing the entirety of human knowledge. He also claims that his role as a manager is to mature men. Man-ager … get it? Expectations are low for him.
In his initial four matches at the helm, Chelsea scored 11 goals and conceded just one. The club is now only four points behind first place and just one point behind third-placed Liverpool, who have netted only three goals in their last five matches, the latest of which was another uncompetitive 2-0 defeat to Manchester City. But this time, it occurred at home.
The discussion surrounding Slot’s suitability for the role has faded into the background, and a consensus has emerged regarding Liverpool: this is a solid team that is not yet prepared to contend for a title.
At Manchester United, Amorim was succeeded by Michael Carrick, who oversaw victories against City and then Arsenal in his first two matches in charge. However, this was followed by a 2-2 draw against Fulham and then a minimal 1-0 win over Tottenham, who had a player sent off in the 38th minute, and have not won a match since early December, now sitting just five points above the relegation zone.
Many became caught up in the positive atmosphere surrounding Carrick’s initial two matches, but with United in ninth place, it is evident that he is merely a caretaker.
The Premier League top five:
1st: Manchester City: 49 points, plus-28 goal differential
2nd: Arsenal: 49 points, plus-20 GD
3rd: Liverpool: 46 points, plus-12 GD
4th: Chelsea: 45 points, plus-16 GD
5th: Aston Villa: 42 points, plus-7 GD
Biggest beneficiaries: Burnley have eight more points; Liverpool and Bournemouth seven; Crystal Palace six
Biggest losers: Everton have eight fewer points; Arsenal, Manchester United, and Sunderland seven
Weeks 26 through 31: You dictate your own fate
At the bottom of the table, Burnley and West Ham are tied on 28 points, with Burnley in 18th due to a superior goal differential. Tottenham, surprisingly, finds themselves in 17th, but they maintain a three-point buffer thanks to a last-minute 1-0 victory at Anfield two weeks ago. Perhaps new manager Igor Tudor has discovered something? Leeds, too, are only three points clear of the relegation zone; they have not scored a single goal in their last five matches.
Further up, the introduction of a fifth Champions League slot is enhancing the competitive landscape of the league. As anticipated before the season, there is a distinct top four: Manchester City, Arsenal, Liverpool, and Chelsea are the only teams in the league with positive goal differentials in double digits.
However, beyond that? There exists only a two-point gap between fifth and eighth, and a five-point gap between fifth and eleventh. Andoni Iraola is the frontrunner for any upcoming significant managerial position — in England or elsewhere — as his Bournemouth team sits in fifth place with seven matches remaining, despite losing 75% of their defense over the summer and their star forward, Antoine Semenyo, to Manchester City in January.
Some even regarded their recent match against Manchester United as a “loser leaves town” scenario. Carrick’s United had climbed to fifth thanks to victories over fellow Champions League contenders Crystal Palace and Aston Villa. However, Bournemouth’s win over United propelled the Cherries into fifth place, leading many to believe that if Iraola can defeat Manchester United with Bournemouth, then he should be managing Manchester United.
With Palace now in eighth — two points behind Bournemouth, one behind Villa and United — Glasner is struggling to maintain stability. The club remains in contention despite team captain Marc GuΓ©hi’s departure to City in January.
After a recent defeat to Leeds, the manager began to express vague grievances about needing support and the team lacking depth until a Palace staff member whispered in his ear and pointed to a document on the dais in front of him. Although Palace is in eighth place, they still have a game in hand over the three teams ahead of them in the standings.
Chelsea occupies third place, Liverpool is in fourth, and both teams’ seasons have unfolded in a manner that has somehow prevented the media from resorting to hysteria to describe either side.
Chelsea is a youthful team with a young manager, while Liverpool’s attack has been hindered by Isak’s leg injury earlier in the season against Tottenham and Mohamed Salah, who recently announced he would depart the club after the season, reaching the age cliff. Both teams are expected to participate in the Champions League next season and are anticipated to improve significantly next season.
At the summit, City has amassed 61 points through 30 matches. They have pressured the two emerging midtable clubs, Bournemouth and Palace, into relinquishing their best players midway through the season. If they win all their remaining matches, they will secure the league title.
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