Premier League Power Rankings: Arsenal slips, Man City rises due to performance
In the latest round of Premier League fixtures, the four clubs competing for Champions League spots collectively earned four points, while the four teams in the relegation zone also accumulated four points.
Looking back to the previous round, Manchester United, Aston Villa, and Liverpool together secured three points, whereas Leeds United, Tottenham Hotspur, Nottingham Forest, and West Ham United managed to earn four points.
This situation encapsulates the unpredictability of the current season: over the last fortnight, the teams striving to avoid relegation have outperformed those aiming for Champions League qualification. This isn’t merely a quirk of the schedule; Liverpool recently drew with Tottenham at home, and Manchester City has recorded back-to-back draws against Nottingham Forest and West Ham.
With one match remaining before the season’s final international break, we present the latest installment of ESPN’s monthly Premier League Power Rankings.
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Understanding the Premier League Power Rankings
Let me reiterate my previous statement:
These rankings are not intended to be the most precise power rankings ever created; the aim is to develop something straightforward and intuitive while still possessing some predictive capability. The insight comes from contrasting the rankings with the league table, identifying discrepancies, and exploring the underlying reasons.
The initial edition of the rankings includes a more comprehensive explanation of the methodology, but the rating system relies on four factors: (1) Transfermarkt’s total squad values — an indicator of talent, (2) non-penalty expected-goal differential — the most effective single metric for forecasting future performance, (3) passes allowed per defensive action — or PPDA, a measure of pressing intensity — and (4) buildup pass-completion percentage — the ratio of completed passes outside the attacking third, serving as an indicator of a team’s ability to withstand pressure.
This model is straightforward, yet all four metrics have shown a correlation with winning in recent seasons. Here’s the current standing:
1. Manchester City (up 1)
As City slips down the standings and faces elimination from the Champions League at the hands of Real Madrid, how do they ascend to No. 1 in our rankings? What is happening?
As discussed previously, City’s style of play began to evolve following their January signings. They have started to press more assertively and higher up the pitch, which is rewarded in these rankings. This pressing has continued to increase over the past month.
However, it is important to closely examine this transformation. Brighton leads the Premier League with a PPDA of 10.23. Since January, City has recorded a PPDA below 10 in seven matches, having achieved this only three times prior. Even those instances indicate a new trend: two occurred in late December and one in late November. Since the season’s midpoint, City holds the lowest PPDA in the Premier League.
Additionally, while they did drop points against West Ham and Nottingham Forest, those matches were among City’s stronger performances this season, as indicated by non-penalty xG differential. The match against West Ham, in particular, featured a rare occurrence: a team taking one shot and scoring one goal.
(Shots are represented in purple, goals in orange, and the size of the circle corresponds to its expected goals value.)
If I were to rank these teams based on subjective criteria, I would still place Arsenal first. City remains inconsistent and lacks depth in midfield, and their squad composition still appears puzzling. Nevertheless, they continue to dominate possession outside the final third, and their pressing is becoming increasingly aggressive. The more they excel in both areas, the more likely they are to win.
2. Arsenal (down 1)
Let me reiterate, in a manner suitable for online discourse: What is going on?
The Gunners are on track to win the league, barring an extraordinary collapse. Currently, at DraftKings, a bet of $1,000 is required to yield a $100 profit from Arsenal finishing atop the table. According to Simon Tinsley’s projection model, Mikel Arteta & Co. have a 96% probability of securing the Premier League trophy. What seemed highly probable in October is now nearly certain.
Yet, they have dropped to second in a ranking that is arguably more significant and certainly more prestigious than the Premier League itself: these power rankings. Rather than interpreting this as an indication that Arsenal is no longer the top team in England, let’s adjust our perspective to view this ranking shift as a sign that Arsenal’s performance has declined somewhat as the season has progressed.
Recent matches have illustrated this decline. They seem unable or unwilling to maintain possession as patiently as they once did. At the season’s midpoint, they had completed 86.9% of their passes outside the attacking third — second only to City in the league. Since then, that figure has dropped to 81.8% — now ninth in the league, positioned between Brighton and Everton.
When considering all factors, they have fallen to sixth in buildup-pass completion percentage. This appears to be a tactical decision by Arteta, as it is unlikely that opponents suddenly opted to play more aggressively against the league’s top team.
They may be gripping the steering wheel a bit too tightly, but it is unlikely to have significant consequences. Their two poorest performances of the season were likely the away matches against Brentford and Brighton in the past month, yet they still managed to secure four points from those encounters.
3. Chelsea (unchanged)
Here is Chelsea’s non-penalty expected goals differential under their two full-time managers this season:
• Enzo Maresca: plus-0.23
• Liam Rosenior: plus-0.74
They are not pressing as aggressively as they did under Maresca, but they are generally exhibiting a more patient approach in possession. Overall, there is a clear narrative of a new manager arriving, stabilizing the situation, and persuading everyone that the team is improved … right? Right?!
Not exactly. They just suffered an 8-2 aggregate defeat to PSG in the Champions League. While the overall statistics are quite favorable, Chelsea feels unpredictable on a match-by-match basis.
Will their goalkeeper gift the opposition a couple of easy goals? Will they dominate a rival for a top-five position? Will they be outplayed by a midtable side yet still emerge victorious? Will they struggle for most of the match before overwhelming the opponent with a barrage of chances as they pursue the game? Will Pedro Neto engage in a confrontation with a defenseless teenager? Might Rosenior have his players perform trust falls during a match they are already losing by five goals?
A solid team is still lurking within, and it remains to be seen if Rosenior can man-age the chaos effectively. PSG was in exceptional form in front of goal, converting just over two xG into eight goals.
If Chelsea were positioned a few points higher in the standings, they would be favorites for a top-five finish, but they currently sit in sixth, with upcoming matches against both Manchester clubs, Liverpool, and relegation-threatened Spurs and Forest — theoretically, the latter two should be straightforward fixtures but could prove more challenging than facing a 12th-place team with nothing at stake. Their chances of qualifying for the Champions League next season appear to be a toss-up.
4. Liverpool (unchanged)
On one side, there is PSG, the reigning European champions, who recently defeated Chelsea 8-2 on aggregate. They boast the current Ballon d’Or winner, an impressive array of athletic, game-changing wingers, the finest fullback duo globally, and a well-balanced midfield.
On the opposite side, you have Liverpool, whose top player (Mohamed Salah) appears to have aged significantly over the offseason and often stumbles over the ball when in scoring positions; whose manager seems perpetually on the brink of dismissal every time they take the field and increasingly appears outmatched on the sidelines; whose best passer from the previous season is now with Real Madrid; whose record striker signing has netted just two goals; who lost to Wolverhampton Wanderers two weeks ago; who drew with Tottenham last weekend; and who was booed off the pitch by their own supporters less than a week ago.
These two teams are set to clash in the Champions League quarterfinals, and how would you assess their respective chances of progressing? Perhaps 80-20 in favor of the first team? Maybe you recognize that soccer can be somewhat unpredictable and adjust it to 70-30?
DraftKings has released odds for the Champions League quarterfinals, favoring PSG over Liverpool, but only marginally: 55% to 45%.
play1:22Slot: Unrealistic for Liverpool to recreate Galatasaray performance vs. PSG
Arne Slot describes PSG as “incredible” ahead of Liverpool’s Champions League quarterfinal matchup.
5. Manchester United (unchanged)
United’s chances of qualifying for the Champions League are comparable to — if not superior to — Arsenal’s chances of winning the league. This is not due to Michael Carrick, the return of Kobbie Mainoo, or the absence of European fixtures or domestic cup matches.
Rather, it is because Bruno Fernandes is performing exceptionally well. We are witnessing one of the most remarkable passing seasons in history. Just take a look at this pass.
However, it is not just a few highlight-reel moments.
Gradient Sports evaluates every pass in the Premier League weekly on a scale from minus-2 to plus-2, then normalizes each player’s score on a scale from zero to 100. Here’s how Fernandes has performed this season:
Indeed, you read that correctly: He has a score of 99.9 out of 100.
6. Newcastle United (unchanged)
The Champions League encounter with Barcelona encapsulated Newcastle’s season: three excellent halves of high-intensity soccer, followed by a complete collapse.
It appeared they might secure a victory at Camp Nou, but Kieran Trippier’s foul on Raphinha allowed Barcelona to take a 3-2 lead, and everything unraveled in the second half:
(Shots are represented in purple, goals in orange, and the size of the circle corresponds to its expected goals value.)
What was remarkable about the first 75% of this match is that Eddie Howe’s squad managed it without their top player, Bruno Guimarães. What is concerning about those initial three halves is that they did so, by choice, without Nick Woltemade and Yoane Wissa, the two strikers they invested a combined €130 million in over the summer. They were chasing the game throughout the second half — and neither player was utilized.
7. Brighton & Hove Albion (unchanged)
Every team in the upper left quadrant of this chart has participated in the Champions League at some point over the last three seasons — with one exception:
If Vincent Kompany secured the Bayern Munich managerial position due to his possession-based approach with a struggling Burnley team that faced relegation, could a larger club consider hiring 33-year-old Fabian Hurzeler?
8. Tottenham Hotspur (unchanged)
If we exclude squad value from the analysis, Spurs would fall significantly in the power rankings, yet still not into the bottom three.
Since they have been able to press at times and do not always resort to simply launching the ball upfield after regaining possession, the model ranks them higher than 17th, where their xG differential suggests they should be.
Ironically, their best strategy for the remainder of this season may involve adopting a style that would negatively impact their standing in these power rankings: sitting deep and attempting to counterattack. It took Igor Tudor, who is Croatian and had no prior experience in England, only a few weeks to realize he had no choice but to emulate the stubborn British relegation specialists of the past and implement a reactive 4-4-2 formation.
They were not “good” against Liverpool, but they managed just enough to frustrate the home side and scrape a late equalizer for an unexpected point.
9. Aston Villa (unchanged)
When watching an English-language broadcast of a European soccer match in 2026, there is a strong likelihood that you will hear someone who lacks an understanding of statistics claim that expected goals is a foolish metric. This is partly because, on broadcasts, it is primarily utilized for individual matches, which is not its intended purpose. I still reference it for single games to gauge who created better opportunities, but it is not the definitive measure for assessing a match’s outcome.
Commentators could attempt to contextualize the xG figures they receive — or discuss why they do not align with observed events — but it is far simpler to mock the analysts and point to the scoreboard.
The true strength of xG lies in its aggregates. For instance, we know that after approximately 10 matches, xG totals become significantly more predictive of future performance than points, goals, or any other metric.
Consider this season, for example. After 15 matches, Aston Villa trailed first-place Arsenal by three points. Some commentators suggested they were in the title race, despite their minus-3.12 being the 14th best in the league. Over the next 15 matches, Villa secured 21 points — tied for the eighth most in the league — and produced a minus-4 goal differential — tied for the 13th best in the league.
This downturn was relatively easy to anticipate, but only if one was willing to look.
10. AFC Bournemouth (up 1)
Last season, Brentford averaged 1.5 points per game. This season, after losing three-fourths of their defense to PSG, Real Madrid, and Liverpool, they are averaging 1.4 points per game.
Andoni Iraola is quite adept at this whole “coaching” endeavor.
11. Brentford (up 1)
Could they … actually do it?
Brentford is only four points away from fifth place, and the three teams
