Champions League playoff predictions: Real Madrid, PSG expected to progress
Real Madrid faces the challenge of defeating Jose Mourinho’s Benfica to sustain their Champions League aspirations after being matched against the Portuguese club in the playoff round. This comes just two days after goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin’s last-minute goal secured a thrilling 4-2 win in Lisbon, preventing Real from securing a spot in the top eight of the league phase.
Benfica’s remarkable victory has energized the 2025-26 Champions League, but the playoff round is set to deliver even more excitement, with prominent teams such as Real, defending champions Paris Saint-Germain, and last season’s runners-up Inter Milan all encountering difficult matchups to advance to the round of 16.
While the top eight finishers from the league phase can relax and strategize their journey to the final at Budapest’s Puskás Aréna on May 30 before the round of 16, those teams that ended up between ninth and 24th in the league phase must now secure a two-legged victory to keep their European hopes alive.
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With the Blue Path and Silver Path now established for the playoffs following Friday’s draw in Nyon, Switzerland, which teams will advance, and which prominent clubs might be eliminated?
First legs are scheduled for Feb. 17-18, with the second legs on Feb. 24-25
SILVER PATH
Atalanta vs. Borussia Dortmund
These two clubs finished just two places apart in the league phase, with Atalanta slightly ahead of Dortmund in 15th place. Atalanta poses a threat, yet they have shown inconsistency, as Raffaele Palladino’s squad squandered a top eight finish by losing their last two matches against Athletic Club and Union St.-Gilloise.
With uncertainty surrounding the future of versatile forward/winger Ademola Lookman — the Nigerian midfielder is a January transfer target for Fenerbahce — Atalanta may be without one of their crucial attacking assets when this matchup occurs.
Dortmund also concluded their league phase with two losses, so while Niko Kovac’s team may be slight favorites to progress, neither team appears likely to advance beyond the round of 16.
WINNERS: Borussia Dortmund
Benfica vs. Real Madrid
Following the late drama at Estadio da Luz earlier this week, this immediate rematch between Benfica and Real is undoubtedly the highlight of the round, but there is much more at stake for Real than just seeking revenge, as they could have secured a top eight position with a draw in Lisbon.
Remarkably, despite both clubs’ rich histories in European competitions, Real and Benfica have faced each other only four times in official matches, with Benfica holding a 3-1 advantage in their head-to-head record; Real must overcome this unfavorable history to win the tie. With Mourinho at the helm of Benfica, Real is aware that their former coach will be eager to eliminate them at the Bernabeu in the second leg.
Real will also be missing the suspended Raúl Asencio and Rodrygo for the first leg due to red cards received against Benfica this week, presenting coach Alvaro Arbeloa with significant challenges against his former mentor Mourinho.
WINNERS: Real Madrid
AS Monaco vs. Paris Saint-Germain
On paper, PSG should be satisfied with their all-French matchup against Monaco, particularly after navigating a similar Ligue 1 encounter with Brest at the same stage last season. Although Monaco is currently struggling in the midtable of the French league, they managed a 1-0 victory over PSG last November, thanks to a goal from Takumi Minamino at Stade Louis II. Sebastien Pocognoli’s team will believe they have a chance for an upset.
PSG has not been able to replicate the form they exhibited in winning the Champions League last season, but Luis Enrique’s squad should still prevail in this tie. Ousmane Dembélé and Bradley Barcola have returned to fitness, and PSG will benefit from playing the second leg at home. They are expected to have the upper hand against Monaco.
WINNERS: PSG
Galatasaray vs. Juventus
History favors two-time Champions League champions Juventus, but currently, there is little to distinguish between these two teams, making it likely to be a closely contested match. Galatasaray took advantage of home support in Istanbul to secure a 1-0 victory against Liverpool during the league phase, and they will aim to establish a strong lead before the second leg in Turin.
The Turkish side features a wealth of experienced talent: will the goals from Victor Osimhen and the experience of Ilkay Gündogan be sufficient to sway the tie in Galatasaray’s favor, or can Luciano Spalletti motivate Juve to advance to the round of 16? It is expected to be a tight contest, but Juventus is vulnerable, allowing Galatasaray the opportunity to pull off an upset and progress.
WINNERS: Galatasaray
BLUE PATH
Club Brugge vs. Atlético Madrid
This matchup features the Champions League overachievers (Brugge) against a team that has developed a reputation for underperforming (Atletico).
It has been a decade since Atleti played — and lost — their second final in three years against Real, and Diego Simeone’s squad has been lackluster for much of the last ten years. Atleti will confront Brugge, aware that the Belgian side is capable of causing more Champions League distress. Ivan Leko’s team is dangerous on the counterattack, with Greece midfielder Christos Tzolis likely to attract significant interest following an impressive season.
WINNERS: Club Brugge
FK Qarabag vs. Newcastle United
Qarabag has become the first team from Azerbaijan to reach the Champions League knockout stages, achieving this with three wins in the league phase and a home draw against Chelsea. The first leg in Baku will be Qarabag’s best opportunity to keep the tie competitive, particularly with the additional travel demands on Newcastle, who are facing an increasingly packed domestic schedule.
However, Liverpool’s straightforward 6-0 victory over Qarabag at Anfield on Matchday 8 revealed several vulnerabilities that Newcastle can exploit, and manager Eddie Howe should be pleased with the draw, especially considering the alternative would have been a more challenging matchup against Monaco. This is likely to be one of the most lopsided ties, but Newcastle must avoid complacency in the first leg.
WINNERS: Newcastle United
play2:09Marcotti: Real Madrid have a lot of chaos in the middle
Gab Marcotti and Julien Laurens analyze Real Madrid’s 4-2 defeat to Benfica in the UEFA Champions League and discuss what the club needs to address moving forward.
Bodo/Glimt vs. Inter Milan
The Norwegian team Bodo secured its playoff position with thrilling consecutive victories against Manchester City and Atletico Madrid, and Inter will not intimidate Kjetil Knutsen’s squad. However, the situation may be different for Inter.
Will Cristian Chivu’s team genuinely look forward to a trip to the Arctic Circle in mid-February to face Bodo on their notorious artificial pitch — a venue that has already seen Lazio, Porto, and Roma suffer humiliating defeats? Despite the challenges of the away leg, Inter will be strong favorites to progress against a team that is still over a month away from the start of its domestic season.
Inter possesses considerable experience within their squad, along with the added security of playing the second leg at the San Siro.
WINNERS: Inter Milan
Bayer Leverkusen vs. Olympiacos
These two teams faced each other recently during league phase Matchday 7 on Jan. 20, with Olympiacos securing a 2-0 victory in Greece. With the first leg taking place at the daunting Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium in Piraeus, Olympiacos could establish a significant lead before the return match in Germany if forwards Ayoub El Kaabi and Mehdi Taremi can maintain their current form.
Leverkusen is a team undergoing transition, but they should still prevail in this two-legged tie. Olympiacos is a formidable underdog, as demonstrated during their triumph in the 2024 UEFA Europa Conference League, so this matchup could potentially go to penalties.
WINNERS: Olympiacos
