Arsenal’s decision to allow Manchester City to re-enter the Premier League title competition reflects a recurring trend.
Arsenal’s pursuit of the Premier League title encountered another setback on Wednesday, prompting many supporters to question: “Is this happening again?”
A 2-2 draw against last-placed Wolverhampton Wanderers proved to be quite detrimental in the context of the 2025-26 title race. Following a previous league match that ended in a 1-1 draw at Brentford, Mikel Arteta’s team squandered a two-goal advantage at Molineux, missing the opportunity to increase their lead over Manchester City to seven points and maintain control over their destiny.
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Having led the table since September, Arsenal has struggled in recent weeks at a crucial juncture of the season. They have secured only two victories in their last seven league matches.
Their advantage at the top of the Premier League has dwindled to just five points, with City (who have a game in hand) now closely pursuing them. In straightforward terms, if City wins all of their remaining 12 matches, including a home game against Arsenal in April, they will finish first. The same applies to Arsenal if they can win their remaining 11 matches, including that vital trip to the Etihad, but they have left themselves with no room for mistakes.
While not all hope is lost, recent trends do not favor Arteta’s struggling squad. City has consistently produced stronger finishes than Arsenal during the final stages of the last four seasons, irrespective of their standings relative to the Gunners.
There remains a significant amount of football to be played this season, but the reality is that Arsenal has accumulated fewer points than City from this point onward in every season since 2021-22. They will need to reverse this trend to avoid extending their wait for another Premier League title into a 23rd year.
2021-22
Arsenal had the youngest squad in the Premier League, with an average age of just 24 years and 308 days. They were not truly in the title race, instead competing for European qualification. Despite being pursued closely by Liverpool, City maintained the top position throughout the second half of the season and ultimately secured the league title by a single point.
In comparison, Pep Guardiola’s champions garnered 30 points from their last 12 matches of the season, while Arsenal could only achieve 18 in the same period, resulting in a fifth-place finish and UEFA Europa League qualification.
2022-23
At this same point three years ago, Arsenal was sitting atop the table with 27 matches played, five points ahead of defending champions City in second place (does this sound familiar?), with both teams having played the same number of games.
The Gunners remained in first place until gameweek 33, when they were soundly defeated 4-1 by City at the Etihad, losing their top position in the process. City held steady, ultimately winning the title by five points, having accumulated 31 points in their final 12 matches, compared to Arsenal’s relatively modest 21-point total. This marked the first part of City’s Treble success, as they also claimed the FA Cup and UEFA Champions League that season.
2023-24
Arsenal found themselves in a title race with Manchester City and Liverpool for most of the 2023-24 season. The three teams were often separated by just a point or two throughout the latter half of the season, resulting in one of the more captivating title races in recent memory.
The Gunners fought hard and even held the top position several times in May. However, it ultimately was not sufficient to stop City from surging ahead and securing their fourth consecutive title. Guardiola’s side finished with just one more point than Arsenal over their respective final 12 matches, but it was enough for them to clinch the title with a victory over West Ham United on the final day.
2024-25
With Manchester City experiencing burnout and falling behind in the title race, Liverpool and Arsenal were left to compete at the top of the Premier League. Arteta’s team had been in second place since December, but a series of dropped points in the final weeks of the season (notably a disappointing 2-1 home loss to AFC Bournemouth in early May) allowed Liverpool to pull ahead and finish 10 points clear.
Despite dropping as low as seventh just before Christmas, City managed to improve their results after the new year. They even outperformed Arsenal in terms of points (27 to 21) from their final 12 matches of the season, finishing in third place, just three points behind the fatigued Gunners.
