Arsenal and Man City face Carabao Cup setback; Madrid secures derby victory; additional updates

We experienced one last weekend of European league play prior to the international break (during which the final positions will be secured for this summer’s World Cup) and it certainly provided ample discussion points. Let’s start with the English Carabao Cup final, where Manchester City outmaneuvered and outperformed the favorites, Arsenal, to claim the first trophy both teams are competing for. Regardless, the match served as a wake-up call for both as they gear up for the concluding phase of their Premier League title contest.

Spain’s LaLiga was marked by Sunday’s Madrid derby, which featured five impressive goals and saw Alvaro Arbeloa’s Real Madrid triumph 3-2 over Diego Simeone and Atletico Madrid. Barcelona continues to lead LaLiga with a four-point advantage following their 1-0 victory against Rayo Vallecano, but the title race remains finely balanced.

In other news, there are numerous talking points surrounding Chelsea (has Liam Rosenior been set up to fail?), Bayern Munich (who secured another significant win despite a heavily rotated squad … concerning), Inter Milan (who dropped points, slightly opening up Serie A’s title race), Liverpool (who performed poorly against Brighton), Tottenham (who lost a crucial relegation match), and much more.

It’s Monday morning, making it an ideal time for some reflections. Let’s delve into it.

– City defeats Arsenal in Carabao Cup, is the Premier League title race still alive?
– Ogden: Tottenham plummeting toward relegation after lackluster loss to Forest
– Lindop: Where is the true Liverpool? Inconsistency characterizes their season

Carabao Cup final serves as a reality check for both Man City and Arsenal

Once the excitement for the trophy subsides — let’s temper expectations as it’s the League Cup, and Pep Guardiola already has four of them in his collection — the primary significance of Sunday afternoon lies in assessing the health of the Premier League run-in and, for Arsenal, the Champions League knockout stages.

Man City trails by nine points, with a game in hand and — importantly — a head-to-head matchup at the Etihad on April 19. To have a chance at the Premier League, they will almost certainly need to win both encounters.

Arsenal’s performance at Wembley was quite disappointing, far more than the 2-0 scoreline indicates. After early chances from Kai Havertz and Bukayo Saka (credit to James Trafford for that), their expected goals after the 12th minute were a mere 0.26 against a defense missing its two top defenders (Rúben Dias, Josko Gvardiol). The notion that this season’s team is less focused on footballing aspects (such as possession, movement, patterns of play, and chance creation, where they rank fourth in the league) and more on solid defense, transitions, and set-pieces may be a cliché, but it holds true.

Thus, when you fail to capitalize on early scoring opportunities, when you manage only three corner kicks throughout the match (half your average), and when your goalkeeper makes an error leading to the first goal just after the hour mark, it becomes exceedingly challenging to recover. Especially when your most talented player (still Bukayo Saka in my opinion) has a subdued performance and you struggle significantly to impose your style of play.

play1:52Burley criticizes Arsenal as an ‘absolute disgrace’ for Carabao Cup display

Craig Burley criticizes Arsenal for their approach to the Carabao Cup final following a 2-0 defeat to Manchester City.

The absence of Martin Odegaard and Eberechi Eze (and Mikel Merino, to be honest) in attacking midfield weighs heavily here — particularly since the substitute, Havertz, has scarcely played in that role for the past two and a half seasons. Jurriën Timber’s absence is also detrimental, as is the choice of Piero Hincapié over Riccardo Calafiori at left back. However, it is more about Arsenal’s ethos and mindset this season, which is less creative and technical than in previous years. This is validated by their position at the top of the Premier League and their pursuit of a domestic/European Treble, but it comes at the cost of their ability to respond in situations like these against such opponents.

As for City, one can only commend their response after the disappointing draw at West Ham and the Champions League losses to Real Madrid. They were somewhat fortunate with both goals, but maintained control throughout, and Guardiola’s decision to trust Rayan Cherki (a logical choice in my view, though it’s worth noting he had started just three of seven league and Champions League matches leading up to the final) proved justified. Abdukodir Khusanov kept Viktor Gyökeres (17 touches in over 90 minutes, only two in the City box, no shots) in check all match, both fullbacks made significant contributions, and Trafford displayed no nerves in goal. It’s an unusual statement, but it didn’t matter that Erling Haaland was effectively contained, aside from that one shot.

Moving forward, much will depend on how the two managers interpret the aftermath of the match.

play0:59Should Arteta have opted for Raya over Kepa against Man City?

ESPN FC’s Janusz Michallik discusses Manchester City’s 2-0 victory over Arsenal in the Carabao Cup final.

Having experimented with formations and strategies all season, I believe this setup — despite possibly sacrificing a bit in the pressing game — simply suits Guardiola, especially with the anticipated return of Ruben Dias when he regains fitness. With no Champions League commitments to consider, it’s essentially plug-and-play ahead of the direct clash with Arsenal, and the fact they face two significant opponents in the immediate lead-up (Liverpool in the FA Cup quarterfinals, Chelsea away in the league) is advantageous for maintaining focus.

One would assume Arteta will have Odegaard back after the break (though we’ve heard this before), but given his season thus far, he is unlikely to be an immediate solution. One of the most challenging decisions coaches face at this stage of what is (let’s not forget) a highly successful campaign is whether to attribute a defeat to a bad day or to adjust what has been a winning formula.

There are lessons to be learned, but time to implement them is limited. This is what Arteta will contemplate during the international break.

Time to commend Alvaro Arbeloa: Bold choices yield rewards

play2:00Will Real Madrid’s comeback ignite a LaLiga title challenge?

Luis Garcia reflects on Real Madrid’s comeback victory over rivals Atletico Madrid in LaLiga.

I have been critical of him, primarily due to the unsatisfactory results, lackluster football, and a seemingly cautious approach that relied on waiting for Vini or Kylian Mbappe to create something, which was frustrating. However, he deserves recognition for what we witnessed from Real Madrid in Sunday’s 3-2 derby victory.

Make no mistake: Real could have dropped points. The penalty awarded for Dávid Hancko’s foul on Brahim Díaz, converted by Vinícius Júnior, appeared harsh, and had Julián Álvarez’s stunning shot curved slightly more to the right, the outcome could have been different. Yet, considering the goal-line clearances from Giuliano Simeone, Federico Valverde hitting the crossbar, and Vinícius stepping up significantly, it’s clear Real Madrid fully earned the victory.

Arbeloa resisted the urge to immediately reintegrate Kylian Mbappé after his brief appearance against Manchester City; he placed his trust in Dani Carvajal and Fran García and, during the second half at 11 vs. 11, restricted Atleti to just one shot on target (Nahuel Molina’s spectacular strike). Most importantly, he is maximizing the potential of a formidable Vinicius, something Xabi Alonso struggled to achieve.

Real Madrid is still in pursuit, of course, but to come from behind and perform better in a match like this, following the City encounters in the UEFA Champions League and without relying on Thibaut Courtois’ usual heroics (due to injury … Andriy Lunin was in goal) is noteworthy.

As for Atleti, they played with more freedom than intensity, which is understandable. Diego Simeone may never admit it, but it’s acceptable if their focus is on the two trophies they can still win this season: the Champions League and the Copa del Rey. They are not in contention for the LaLiga title, and their top four position is secure. In some respects, that freedom can make them even more dangerous and inventive: consider Giuliano’s back-heel assist for Ademola Lookman’s goal, or the remarkable strike from Molina that briefly equalized at 2-2.

Liam Rosenior is left to address someone else’s issues…

play1:21Hislop: Liam Rosenior’s future at Chelsea is uncertain

Shaka Hislop and Steve Nicol discuss Liam Rosenior’s future following Chelsea’s 3-0 defeat to Everton in the Premier League.

… and I genuinely question whether he is part (a minor part) of the problem or part of the solution, as the individuals responsible for assembling this Chelsea team (co-directors of football, Paul Winstanley and Laurence Stewart) have not clarified their objectives or why they believed Rosenior was an improvement over Enzo Maresca when they appointed him in January.

Saturday’s 3-0 loss at Everton marks four consecutive defeats across all competitions. They currently sit sixth in the Premier League table, just one point shy of the Champions League spots due to Liverpool’s loss, but four teams are within three points vying for one position, which is an uncomfortable scenario. Rosenior has achieved 10 wins in 19 matches since his appointment, which appears impressive until you consider that three were against lower-league teams, one against Pafos, and two against relegation-threatened sides. Another victory came against a Crystal Palace team that hadn’t won in eight league matches. What does that leave? Aston Villa away, Brentford at home, and an injury-plagued Napoli away.

Periods of attractive football, like those displayed against Paris Saint-Germain, do not compensate for the reality that this is a poorly constructed team. Or that neither Filip Jorgensen nor Robert Sánchez seem capable of executing his desired tactics in goal. Or that the constant rotation of center backs is counterproductive. Or that having built a squad centered around genuine wingers — presumably that was the recruitment strategy, otherwise they wouldn’t have signed Estêvão, Jamie Gittens, and Alejandro Garnacho simultaneously — they have abruptly shifted under Rosenior, moving Cole Palmer wide and inserting another central midfielder.

He does not assist his cause with some of his choices, but it is clear: Rosenior is tasked with rectifying someone else’s issues.

Quick hits

play2:42Kane reflects on Bayern Munich’s ‘really good’ victory over Union Berlin

Harry Kane shares his thoughts on Bayern Munich’s 4-0 win against Union Berlin in the Bundesliga.

10. Bayern Munich goes direct and thoroughly defeats 1. FC Union Berlin: The aspect of Bayern this season is not just that they are deep, experienced, and feature this year’s likely Golden Shoe winner in Harry Kane. It’s that they can defeat opponents in various ways. Saturday’s rivals, Union Berlin, may not be the most entertaining team, but they are solidly mid-table and can effectively defend.

Faced with the prospect of substantial possession at home and a dense defense obstructing their path to goal, Bayern manager Vincent Kompany opted for a direct approach rather than patient, intricate passing. The result was a 4-0 victory, hitting the woodwork twice and accumulating 5.53 expected goals, while restricting Union to a single shot on target. All this was achieved with five starters absent (plus Nicolas Jackson suspended), which is quite intimidating.

9. Dro Fernández scores 100th goal for PSG against Nice: It took some time for them to find the breakthrough as Khvicha Kvaratskhelia’s finishing was off, and the penalty that opened the scoring just before halftime was somewhat generous, but PSG convincingly outclassed Nice away to reclaim the top position in Ligue 1. The 4-0 victory — against an opponent whose last home win was in October and is battling relegation — appears more impressive than it was (Nice went down to 10 men early in the second half), but PSG executed their post-Champions League plan effectively.

In the process, they netted their 100th goal in all competitions, courtesy of substitute Fernandez. The 18-year-old, acquired for a modest fee in January (€8 million due to a release clause and his unwillingness to extend his Barcelona contract) was a La Masia standout, drawing comparisons to Andres Iniesta. Time will tell if he lives up to the expectations or follows the path of previous La Masia talents like Riqui Puig or Carlos Alena, but his departure from Barca raises questions. Regardless of how hard his representatives negotiated, it seems counterintuitive to invest in Marcus Rashford or Roony Bardghji when this player was emerging.

8. Are AC Milan learning their lesson?: The narrative surrounding Milan this season has been that Max Allegri is a genius for extracting so much performance and resilience from Luka Modric and Adrien Rabiot. That, along with the usual claims of being tough and uncompromising despite being outplayed but “finding a way to win.” Regular readers will know I consider that perspective flawed. Yes, Modric and Rabiot have been exceptional; when you play once a week, it’s significantly easier to excel at their age. As for being outplayed, that’s never a positive.

However, there are indications that even Allegri acknowledges this, which is encouraging. Against Torino on Saturday, they had a dismal first half (0.2 xG at home tells its own story), taking the lead through a long-range effort from Strahinja Pavlovic and then conceding due to a defensive error. Allegri’s standard approach would have been to remain conservative, keep it tight, and hope for a positive outcome. This time, however, he was proactive: He introduced a high-energy winger (21-year-old Zachary Athekame), switched to a back four, encouraged his players to commit to attack, and was rewarded with two team goals leading to a 3-2 victory. Better late than never, one might say.

7. Redemption for Ramy Bensebaini in Borussia Dortmund’s comeback: The Algeria defender had made just one start since that match against Atalanta in Europe, where he experienced one of the most challenging nights a professional footballer can endure (and was largely responsible for four conceded goals). On Saturday, he came on at halftime for young Luca Reggiani (who was having a performance reminiscent of Bensebaini’s in Bergamo), stabilized the defense, and scored two penalties as Dortmund netted three times in the final 17 minutes to defeat Hamburg SV 3-2.

It was the kind of unpredictable performance to which Dortmund has accustomed us (still, that 4.08 xG in the second half looks impressive), but the win keeps them well-positioned for second place. With little left to play for, there’s only so much one can expect from this team. Still, head coach Nico Kovac felt compelled to bring on departing Julian Brandt at the end of added time. It seemed unnecessary; one hopes it wasn’t a trivial message-sending, and that he at least receives an appearance bonus.

6. Center forward woes as Juventus drop points: Strange but true. Juventus’ squad for the visit of Sassuolo included four center forwards. Summer signings Loïs Openda and Jonathan David, along with holdovers Dusan Vlahovic (out since November) and Arkadiusz Milik (out since June 2024 … yes, you read that correctly). All four were on the bench, as Luciano Spalletti chose to start a winger like Jérémie Boga up front instead.

This situation encapsulates Juventus’ current state: two free agents returning after lengthy absences (Vlahovic and Milik), and two significant signings who lack the coach’s confidence (Openda and David, who did not come on at all). They needed three points at home against a smaller club that has achieved its version of success this year (mid-table) and could not secure the victory, as they stopped being threatening after an early goal and paid the price for an individual error on the Sassuolo equalizer. Manuel Locatelli’s missed penalty sealed their fate, but the save was poetic justice given the absurdity of the call in the first place. The race for the top four remains competitive, but Spalletti has much to resolve during this international break.

play1:05Nicol: Man United should have been awarded a second penalty vs. Bournemouth

Steve Nicol and Shaka Hislop debate the decision not to award Manchester United a second penalty against Bournemouth.

5. Manchester United files a formal complaint … why?: I understand Michael Carrick’s frustration (though he described it as “baffled”) following Manchester United