Are Tottenham at risk of relegation from the Premier League? Insights from statistics and charts indicate.

The decline of Tottenham towards the relegation zone has compelled their supporters to consider the unimaginable.

In terms of financial stability, sporting aspirations, and virtually any other relevant metric, this season for Tottenham stands a strong chance of being the worst in the history of English football.

Fans of Spurs have been sounding the alarm for several months, yet their concerns have frequently gone unheeded. As the critical phase of the season has arrived, competitors have finally recognized the club’s situation, but, to borrow an analogy from Thomas Frank and Igor Tudor, many seem to take pleasure in witnessing the downfall.

Did the club’s decline begin with the lack of investment that accompanied the stadium relocation? Mauricio Pochettino’s dismissal just five months after the Champions League final loss in 2019?

Or was it more recent? The series of questionable managerial choices that began with José Mourinho and now culminates with Igor Tudor? The internal turmoil marked by the Lewis family’s removal of Daniel Levy at the start of this season? The persistent injury issues affecting most of their players? There is certainly ample blame to distribute.

However, the most crucial aspect now is not to determine how this turmoil began, but rather how it will conclude.

– How Tottenham transitioned from Europa League champions to relegation struggle

Reasons Tottenham may face relegation

What initially appeared to be another disappointing season in Spurs’ recent history has evolved into the most challenging in recent memory.

It has reached a stage where it is difficult to foresee where Spurs might secure the points necessary to salvage their season. Over a quarter of the campaign has elapsed since the north London club last achieved a league victory.

Relegation contenders West Ham have accumulated 14 points from their last 10 matches, while Nottingham Forest has garnered 14 from their last 11. In contrast, Spurs have managed just one point from the last 21 available.

The extent of Spurs’ turmoil is so significant that it is almost overwhelming—cold, hard statistics provide the clearest view of the damage:

• Tottenham has secured only 34 points from their last 40 Premier League matches, and 13 from their last 22

• They have not won 13 consecutive league matches for the first time since 1935

• With merely two home victories in the Premier League, only relegated Championship team Sheffield Wednesday has a poorer home record than Spurs in the English football league this season

• Spurs have yet to win a match in 2026—they will not compete again until mid-April

• Only three teams have experienced longer winless streaks from the start of a calendar year, all of which were relegated: 2007-08 Derby (18), 2002-03 Sunderland (17), 2016-17 Middlesbrough (14)

When these figures are combined with the prevailing sense of a team being inexorably pulled towards the relegation zone, all the elements are present for this team to face relegation.

– Ossie Ardiles advocates for unity as Tottenham confronts relegation

When Ange Postecoglou’s Tottenham squad began to suffer injuries last season, it was largely attributed to his notoriously rigorous training methods, but the trend has persisted long after the Australian’s departure from the club last summer.

This year, the issue has not only been the frequency of injuries but also their severity, timing, and the identities of the players affected.

Consider Spurs’ lack of offensive threat; their performances have been lackluster for nearly the entire season. Spurs recorded an xG of just 0.05 in a 1-0 home loss to Chelsea in November, which turned a significant portion of the Spurs fanbase against Frank. Their 4-1 away defeat to Arsenal two matches later saw Frank’s team achieve a slight improvement: 0.07 xG.

The effect of James Maddison and Dejan Kulusevski’s injuries on these statistics is immeasurable, but the fact that the creative pair have not participated in any matches this season due to their respective knee injuries has certainly hindered their attacking capabilities.

Among all Spurs’ first-team players who have been with the club for the entire season, only two have not missed a game due to injury: Guglielmo Vicario and Mathys Tel.

Vicario is scheduled to undergo a hernia operation during the international break and is likely to miss his first games as a result. Tel left Spurs’ defeat to Forest on Sunday with a suspected muscular injury.

The extent to which this is merely bad luck versus poor squad management is debatable, but injuries have arguably been the most significant limiting factor on Spurs’ prospects this season.

As if that were not enough, only Chelsea (7) has received more red cards in the Premier League this season than Spurs (4).

– Tottenham’s Pedro Porro laments injuries amid ‘disastrous’ season

Reasons Tottenham may avoid relegation

Despite the prevailing negativity, several factors still indicate that Spurs will remain a Premier League team next season.

Foremost among these is the relative difficulty of their remaining fixtures compared to those of their fellow relegation rivals. They may have faltered significantly against Crystal Palace and Forest, but with upcoming matches against Brighton, Wolves, Leeds, and Everton, there are numerous chances for Spurs to accumulate the necessary points.

For instance, Forest faces matches against Aston Villa, Chelsea, Newcastle, and Manchester United, while West Ham will contend with Arsenal and Newcastle.

It is also important to note that only one of West Ham, Forest, Spurs, and Leeds will join Burnley and Wolves in the Championship next season, which favors Tudor’s side.

Another encouraging sign is the reliable Opta supercomputer, which currently assigns Spurs a 23.33% chance of relegation. West Ham is now considered more likely to be relegated than not (58.75%).

Spurs’ figure may appear optimistic at first glance, but Opta’s carefully maintained model reflects betting market odds and Opta’s power rankings—both of which are based on historical and recent team performances as well as the statistical likelihood of outcomes in remaining fixtures.

Postecoglou’s team finished 17th last year with 38 points, a season that required a record-low points total (26) to avoid relegation.

This season, Spurs will likely need between 36 and 38 points to survive—two victories could suffice for Cristian Romero and his teammates.

While the 40-point benchmark has long been regarded as the necessary total to avoid relegation, data indicates that 36 points has been sufficient for survival in 18 of the 30 Premier League seasons played to date.

Which fixtures are most likely to determine the relegation battle?

April 18: Forest vs. Burnley

April 10: West Ham vs. Wolves

April 20: Palace vs. West Ham

April 25: Wolves vs. Spurs

May 9: Spurs vs. Leeds

May 24: Spurs vs. Everton, Forest vs. Bournemouth, West Ham vs. Leeds

(Exact match dates from May 2 – May 24 still TBC)

Information from ESPN’s Global Sports Research contributed to this story