Are there contenders for the Premier League title? Arsenal, Man City, and Villa stumble, allowing United to advance.

In mid-January 1996, Premier League frontrunners Newcastle United and second-placed Manchester United had both completed 23 matches, yet with Newcastle holding a 12-point advantage at the summit, the title race seemed to be a question of when, not if, the trophy would arrive at St James’ Park.

Three decades later, historical records indicate that Newcastle did not secure the league title — their drought now spans 99 years, tracing back to 1927 — while Manchester United overcame the gap to ultimately clinch the title by four points in what is remembered as one of the Premier League’s iconic finishes.

In the 1997-98 season, two years later, Arsène Wenger’s Arsenal found themselves 12 points behind Sir Alex Ferguson’s Manchester United as late as February, yet they managed to win the league by a single point. Thus, when United fans celebrated their 3-2 victory over the Gunners at the Emirates on Sunday by chanting “we’re gonna win the league,” they may not have been entirely jesting.

United’s win propelled them into fourth place — 12 points adrift of Mikel Arteta’s struggling league leaders; eight behind Manchester City and Aston Villa in second and third, respectively; one ahead of Chelsea and two in front of Liverpool — but there is little expectation that Michael Carrick’s squad will mount a title challenge in the remaining four months of the season, is there?

Even Carrick, a five-time title winner as a player with United, was quick to temper any overly optimistic excitement afterward by stating that his team has “bigger games ahead” in the more pragmatic pursuit of a top-four finish and Champions League qualification. However, this season has been so unpredictable that even an improbable United title challenge cannot be dismissed.

This seems an absurd possibility considering that United were in disarray less than a month ago following the sacking of coach Ruben Amorim after merely 14 months in charge, yet the deficiencies of the top three have opened the door for anything to unfold between now and the final matchday on May 24.

So who will claim the 2025-26 Premier League title? At present, it is impossible to pinpoint a definitive favorite, as Arsenal’s recent performances have revealed them to be susceptible to title pressure well before most challengers begin to feel the strain of the closing stages.

On Friday, City manager Pep Guardiola labeled Arsenal as the “best team in the world” at this time. This may have been a strategic psychological tactic by Guardiola, but Arsenal boasts a perfect record with seven victories from seven at the top of the Champions League table and still maintains a four-point advantage in the Premier League, making it difficult to identify a team in a superior position anywhere in Europe currently.

Nevertheless, they have garnered just two points and netted only two goals in their last three league matches, and the tension among the supporters was evident inside the Emirates against United on Sunday.

The fear of failure seems to be stifling Arteta’s squad, and their lack of a dependable goal scorer is also a significant concern. Winning a title without a striker capable of scoring 20 goals a season is challenging, yet their leading Premier League scorers, Leandro Trossard and Viktor Gyökeres, have only five goals each.

Star winger Bukayo Saka has not found the net in his last 13 matches across all competitions; striker Gyökeres has not scored from open play in his last 11 league outings; while forwards Gabriel Martinelli (0 goals in last 13 league games) and Noni Madueke (0 goals in last 26 league games) are also notably failing to contribute.

City, now just four points behind, ended a four-match winless streak in the Premier League with a 2-0 victory over bottom-placed Wolverhampton Wanderers on Saturday. However, having already experienced five defeats by mid-January, Guardiola’s team should realistically be out of contention by now.

They have encountered defensive issues throughout the season, although they added defender Marc Guéhi from Crystal Palace for £20 million to assist this month, and Guardiola has struggled to assemble a midfield capable of competing with the top teams in the Premier League. Meanwhile, striker Erling Haaland has netted 20 goals in 23 league matches this season but has scored only once — a penalty — in his last nine games across all competitions, and City appears vulnerable against teams willing to challenge them.

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ESPN’s Dan Thomas and Janusz Michallik respond to Aston Villa’s 2-0 victory over Newcastle in the Premier League.

So can Villa take advantage of the weaknesses of the top two and secure the most unexpected title victory since Leicester City in 2015-16?

Unai Emery’s team currently sits third, also four points behind Arsenal, and has demonstrated their capability in crucial matches by defeating Arsenal (2-1), City (1-0), United (2-1), and Chelsea (2-1) this season. In fact, Villa has won 15 of their last 18 matches in all competitions, including an 11-match winning streak, but just as they began to appear as serious contenders, they suffered a surprising 1-0 loss at home to Everton last week.

This was a significant opportunity to demonstrate their intent, but Villa squandered it. The seven-time English champions last claimed the league title in 1981, but if they aim to secure an eighth in 2026, they must build on their remarkable recent form, despite having the smallest squad among the top teams. However, this will not be straightforward, as Villa faces challenging fixtures against United, Chelsea, and Liverpool in the final 10 matches of the season, with their last game against City at the Etihad.

Recent title races have typically involved a team generating early momentum and sustaining it, often under the pressure of being pursued by a strong rival. However, that is not the case this time.

Instead of pulling away from the competition, the leading teams have faltered when they had the chance to establish a significant advantage. This is why United, 12 points behind in fourth, might somehow find their way into the title race after revitalizing the atmosphere at Old Trafford with consecutive wins against City and Arsenal under Carrick.

A United title victory remains an exceedingly unlikely scenario, but unless one of the top three begins to perform like champions, this unpredictable season may yet have another remarkable twist in the narrative.