2026 World Cup team rankings: A look at all 48 national squads with potential to triumph this summer
And just like that, the number stands at 48.
With the final stage of World Cup qualification now concluded, the lineup is confirmed — at least for now — and we can proceed to rank all of the actual contenders for this summer’s FIFA World Cup.
These rankings are, as always, derived from a straightforward blend of performance and talent. For performance, we utilize the World Football Elo Ratings — a ranking system for national teams that adjusts for opponent, location, and competition. For talent, we refer to the estimated squad values from Transfermarkt based on each country’s latest call-ups.
Each factor is given equal importance, resulting in the rankings displayed below.
– Has USMNT finally addressed its depth issues?
– USMNT players share insights on Pochettino’s true nature
– Is the USMNT’s World Cup fate sealed by Pulisic’s goal drought?
48. Qatar
One might assume that with the expansion to 48 teams, Qatar would rank as the weakest team ever to compete in a World Cup. By “weakest,” I refer to the team with the lowest Elo ranking. Currently, they sit at 93rd in the world according to Elo, meaning that even if we doubled the size of the 2026 tournament and selected teams solely based on this ranking system, they would still not qualify.
Nonetheless, there has been one team that performed worse than Qatar during the 32-team era: Togo in 2006. They finished with a record of 0-3, netting one goal while conceding six. However, Togo had a 22-year-old Emmanuel Adebayor on their roster at the time, who was playing for Arsenal. Qatar’s standout player, Akram Afif, is with Al Sadd SC.
47. Curacao
Do you believe in momentum within sports? If so, keep an eye on Curacao.
They have surged up 38 positions in the Elo ratings over the past year, while no other team in this summer’s lineup has improved by more than 13 spots. Of course, moving from 128 to 90 is somewhat easier than advancing from 90 to 52.
46. Cape Verde
45. South Africa
44. Iraq
43. Saudi Arabia
42. Haiti
41. New Zealand
40. Tunisia
39. Jordan
Jordan possesses the least-valuable squad in the tournament, with a total value of β¬15.98 million, primarily attributed to Rennes winger Musa Al-Taamari. In comparison, there are 10 players on the USMNT’s latest squad whose estimated transfer values exceed the total worth of Jordan’s entire team.
So, why are they ranked so high? They are among the biggest overachievers in the tournament. Notably, during qualifying, they defeated South Korea 3-0 at home and then drew 1-1 in Suwon.
38. Iran
It is important to note that if all teams that qualified actually participate in the tournament: Should Iran finish second in their group and the U.S. also place second in theirs, they would face each other in the round of 32.
37. Panama
36. Bosnia and Herzegovina
35. Ghana
They feature several players you may recognize and perhaps admire, yet each passing match indicates that this team may not be as strong as anticipated. Their Elo rating is 82nd, and they recently suffered a heavy defeat to Austria, losing 5-1 in a pre-tournament friendly, followed by a 2-1 loss to Germany.
While it is common to overanalyze these exhibition matches, the prevailing question regarding Ghana is whether this team can finally perform to its potential. A couple of significant losses in friendlies do not provide much evidence to support a positive answer.
The federation appears to concur, as they have just dismissed their head coach.
34. Uzbekistan
33. Egypt
32. Australia
Australia was likely the weakest team in the second pot of the draw, making their inclusion in the group a favorable outcome for the USMNT. However, this does not guarantee an easy match against the Socceroos.
While there is no standout star on the roster, most players compete in Europe, and if not, they are either in MLS or the Australian A-League.
Along with Jordan and Colombia, Australia has the largest positive discrepancy between their Elo rating and their market value among all teams in the tournament. In qualifying, they achieved a victory over Japan, the top team in the Asian confederation, at home, and then secured a draw against them away.
31. Congo DR
30. South Korea
29. Canada
Alphonso Davies’s hamstring injury is not as severe as initially feared, and he is expected to return to the field shortly, rejoining the Canada squad for the World Cup. This will also enhance their standing in these rankings.
Davies has had a peculiar career thus far. Few anticipated his transition from the Vancouver Whitecaps to Bayern Munich would be a sure thing, yet he found himself starting for Bayern as they clinched the Champions League title just two years later.
However, the 2019-20 season remains the pinnacle for Davies. He logged 3,400 minutes across all competitions — a figure he has not matched since — and has only surpassed 3,000 minutes on one other occasion.
One could lament the lost potential, but it is essential to remember that Davies is only 25 years old! His prime is just beginning. Hopefully, we will see him this summer, performing at his best.
28. Czechia
27. Paraguay
26. Scotland
25. Algeria
24. Mexico
While I wish I could make some grandiose statements about this team, the truth is that they are … adequate.
They have been the top team in CONCACAF for the last two years, even though the USMNT and possibly Canada possess superior high-end talent. Both of those teams have greater potential and significantly lower risks.
Mexico should perform competently, and with home advantage, they should at least progress beyond the group stage. Beyond that? Their fate largely depends on the draw.
23. Austria
We will see if they can maintain this style in the summer heat of North America, but Ralf Ragnick, the architect of the Red Bull approach, has Austria playing a full version of Red Bull football.
Considering that friendlies are included in these statistics, one should approach these figures with some skepticism, but Austria has allowed their opponents to complete only 73.8% of their passes since the conclusion of Euro 2024. This is the lowest percentage among all teams in the tournament — including those from continents other than Europe, where passing completion rates are generally higher.
22. United States
I would have expressed this regardless of the outcomes of the last two matches for the U.S. men’s national team. Therefore, please consider the following:
β’ In 2022, Argentina won their last three matches before the World Cup with a combined score of 11-0, yet they lost their opening game of the tournament to Saudi Arabia. They went on to win the World Cup.
β’ In 2018, France lost 3-2 to Colombia in the March friendly window, and then in their final match before the tournament, they drew 1-1 with a team that did not qualify for the World Cup and lacked a full-time manager. They went on to win the World Cup.
β’ In 2014, Germany drew with Poland and Cameroon in their last two matches before the tournament began. They went on to win the World Cup.
β’ In 2010, Spain dominated their friendly matches but then lost their first game of the tournament. They went on to win the World Cup.
The last four World Cup champions either struggled through pre-tournament friendlies or faced a full-blown crisis after their first match of the tournament. Additionally, the team that France drew with before winning it all in 2018? It was the USMNT.
play1:18Pochettino committed to USMNT with ‘full focus’ on World Cup
Mauricio Pochettino addresses rumors regarding managing Real Madrid or Tottenham as the USMNT continues preparations for the World Cup.
21. Sweden
20. Japan
19. Ivory Coast
18. Croatia
Remarkably, this journey continues. They possess the 24th most valuable team in the tournament, yet they currently rank within the top 10 of the Elo Ratings. Luka Modric is not only still active in professional soccer; he is performing at an exceptionally high level.
Recall when he won the Ballon d’Or and it was generally regarded as a career-achievement award? That was eight years ago!
17. Switzerland
16. Ecuador
15. Uruguay
14. Colombia
Currently, they rank fifth in the Elo ratings, tying them with Portugal. They may be penalized too harshly by this rating system, but there is a reason their pre-tournament odds — hovering around 12th-favorites to win the tournament — do not align with their significantly higher level of play over the past couple of years. This discrepancy arises from the fact that they primarily rely on one true star, Luis DΓaz from Bayern Munich.
Friendlies, once again, are imperfect indicators — at best — but Colombia’s difficulties against Croatia and France in the most recent window suggested a potential limit for this group of players.
13. Morocco
Congratulations to Morocco, who claimed the Africa Cup of Nations title despite losing the final of the tournament, 1-0.
12. Turkiye 
