Sebastian Fundora will defend his WBC junior middleweight title against Keith Thurman on Saturday at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas (Prime Video PPV, 7 p.m. ET).
Fundora (23-1-1, 15 KOs) captured the title with a split decision win over Tim Tszyu in March 2024 and has since successfully defended it twice, including a seventh-round TKO in their rematch last July.
Standing at 6-foot-5Β½ with an 80-inch reach, Fundora poses a distinctive challenge for competitors in the division. While he possesses the ability to fight from a distance, the southpaw is equally adept at engaging on the inside, where he employs his volume and body shots to wear down his opponents. He enters the bout as a -380 favorite, according to DraftKings Sportsbook.
Thurman (31-1, 23 KOs), a former unified welterweight champion, has been relatively inactive since his split decision defeat to Manny Pacquiao in September 2019. He has only fought twice since then, with his most recent bout occurring in March 2025, when he moved up to junior middleweight and stopped Brock Jarvis in three rounds — marking his only ring activity in over four years.
Nonetheless, Thurman’s experience could play a significant role. At his peak, he faced many of the top fighters in the welterweight division. He has consistently demonstrated good footwork, which he will need to utilize to avoid being in front of the much taller Fundora. Thurman also possesses power in both hands, with his overhand right potentially serving as a crucial punch against the lengthy champion.
Will Fundora leverage his size, youth, and relentless body attack to wear down the veteran? Or can Thurman, the +280 underdog, rely on his experience and power to catch Fundora off guard and achieve an upset?
Former champions Shawn Porter, Danny Garcia, and Raul Marquez analyze how the fight might unfold and share their predictions.
Editor’s note: Content has been edited for brevity and clarity.
Shawn Porter, former welterweight champion
How does Thurman win?
I believe there are several avenues to victory for Thurman. I would like to see him utilize his movement and, when in close, target the body. Then, pivot, step around, clinch, or whatever is necessary to prevent Fundora from landing any punches. I think this is an effective strategy to break down Fundora and compel him to relinquish his height, a vulnerability we have observed throughout most of his career, except for the last two fights. Thurman can box and maneuver his way to a win.
Thurman can achieve victory by knockout. It doesn’t have to be the one-punch knockout like Brian Mendoza used to defeat Fundora, although we know Thurman possesses that kind of power. Critics often question whether he had it at 147 and speculate if he still has it at 154. Trust me, if he had it at 147, he has even more power at 154 and might be better suited for 160. His athleticism enhances his power, which could potentially take out Fundora.
How does Fundora win?
I don’t believe Fundora can afford to keep the fight at a distance and box throughout. Although he has longer arms and a taller stature, he does not utilize them effectively. He must force the fight into close quarters and remain defensively responsible after he throws his punches. I think this is his only route to success. He needs to get close and break Thurman down as he has done with other opponents. If he fails to break him down, the outcome of the fight remains uncertain. Ultimately, this is Fundora’s fight to lose.
Who wins?
I tend to support the underdog, so I predict Thurman will win by knockout.
Raul Marquez, former U.S. Olympian and junior middleweight champion, boxing analyst
The matchup
Thurman is 37 years old. I recall when I fought for the middleweight title against Arthur Abraham at 37. Abraham was formidable, and I wasn’t the same. I believe Fundora represents that formidable challenge for Thurman at this moment. Thurman has also been inactive. Yes, he has extensive experience against top fighters like Manny Pacquiao, Danny Garcia, Shawn Porter, Robert Guerrero, Luis Collazo, and Julio Diaz. However, I do not foresee him winning this fight. At 37, facing a fighter like Fundora, who I believe has improved and is in his prime, I just don’t see Thurman possessing the same firepower he had in his younger days, primarily due to inactivity.
How does Fundora win?
He simply needs to be himself, utilizing his height and reach advantages. He must control the distance early, assess Thurman, and employ the jab. Get on the inside and make Thurman exert himself, then break him down. Use body shots and uppercuts while maintaining a brisk pace. He is up against an older opponent who prefers to fight at his own tempo, so he should not allow that. Fundora has solid defensive skills, so he must be prepared for any setups Thurman might employ due to his experience.
How does Thurman win?
Land “a” punch and get close. That is something he can accomplish, as Fundora also prefers to engage at close range. I know Thurman has been focusing on managing his distance. He is quick, but I believe Fundora is prepared for that. He has improved since the Brian Mendoza fight; he learned a lot from that loss. He has matured and is very disciplined. The only way Thurman can win is if Fundora makes a mistake and becomes careless.
Thurman is an in-and-out fighter. However, he may not have the stamina to maintain that style for 12 rounds against a fighter like Fundora who is constantly advancing. I think Thurman will need to clinch to keep himself active. He will eventually have to stand and trade punches, which may not favor him as his legs may not hold up. His best chance is to land a significant punch by using his experience and timing. He could catch Fundora from various angles, but it has to be the right punch — either the overhand right or the left hook. He has the power to knock him down, but that is his only option. He is unlikely to outpunch Fundora.
Who wins?
Fundora by late-round stoppage. I believe the corner will intervene. I don’t think Thurman can endure, especially at his age. The longer the fight lasts, the more challenging it will become for him.
Danny Garcia, former junior welterweight and welterweight champion
How does Fundora win?
Utilize his youth, apply intelligent pressure, and keep Thurman at the end of his punches. Fundora should aim to break down the inactive Thurman. If he accomplishes this, I can envision him winning by a late TKO.
How does Thurman win?
Capitalize on his experience. Employ quick footwork, maintain tight defense, frustrate Fundora, and attempt to land powerful looping punches. If he succeeds, he could achieve a late-round KO similar to Mendoza’s victory over Fundora.
Who wins?
I do not anticipate this fight going the distance. Thurman by KO.
