NBA trade deadline: Five key inquiries regarding the Harden-Clippers situation

In a surprising turn of events just prior to the NBA trade deadline on Thursday, star guard James Harden may be leaving Los Angeles.

According to sources, Harden and the LA Clippers are exploring the possibility of a trade, as reported by ESPN’s Shams Charania on Monday night. The Cleveland Cavaliers, who are set to face the Clippers in Los Angeles on Wednesday, are among the teams in discussions with the Clippers regarding a potential deal involving Harden, with guard Darius Garland possibly included in the offer.

Harden, who has been absent for the last two games due to personal matters, has played a significant role in helping the Clippers re-enter the playoff race after a challenging 6-21 start. Currently, they hold a 23-26 record and sit ninth in the Western Conference.

At 36 years old, Harden has been traded four times throughout his career, three of which followed trade requests: from the Houston Rockets to the Brooklyn Nets (2021); from the Nets to the Philadelphia 76ers (2022); and then from the 76ers to the Clippers (2023). This season, he is averaging 25.4 points per game, marking his highest average since his last full season in Houston in 2020-21. He has participated in 44 games, averaging 35.4 minutes on the court.

Currently, Harden has the ability to veto any trade due to being under contract for only this season. The second year of the two-year, $81.5 million contract he signed in the offseason is a player option that is not fully guaranteed.

What are the implications if Harden and the Clippers part ways? What might a potential trade entail? And how would Harden’s possible exit affect LA’s future? Our NBA insiders address five key questions:

If Harden is traded, what lies ahead for the Clippers?

Just two weeks ago, Harden expressed how “blessed” he felt to play in his hometown at this point in his career. The sentiment appeared to be reciprocated by the organization.

Harden has been well-received in LA and has been more effective than many anticipated following his departure from Philadelphia. However, at 36, he is set to earn a salary typically associated with a top player on a championship-contending team, rather than that of an aging star on a squad that may have missed its championship opportunity.

Trading Harden, and potentially acquiring a player like Darius Garland from the Cavaliers, could provide the Clippers with a glimpse of a brighter future.

This is noteworthy given the Clippers’ current lack of draft picks and promising young talent.

It remains uncertain how this situation would impact Kawhi Leonard, 34, who has played a crucial role in guiding the Clippers back into playoff contention after their poor start. — Ramona Shelburne

What was the atmosphere like inside Intuit Dome on Monday night?

Harden was absent, missing his second consecutive game for reasons described by the team as personal. The possibility that he may have played his final game for the Clippers was not lost on those present.

Players from both the Clippers and the Philadelphia 76ers discussed the situation prior to the game and even speculated about the idea of him moving to Cleveland. Several Clippers players donned Harden’s signature shoes (which is common), but LA fell behind 16-2, appearing sluggish from the start.

This was the second night of a back-to-back, which can happen, but Harden’s time in LA has been characterized by him stepping up during challenging moments. It seemed as though the team was reflecting their awareness of the ongoing situation. — Brian Windhorst

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What implications does a potential fifth trade have for Harden’s legacy?

Welcome to the era of modern stardom. Throughout the 1990s, only two MVPs had played for more than three teams during their careers: Moses Malone (seven, plus two more in the ABA) and Bob McAdoo (seven). Since Shaquille O’Neal played for six teams, moving to four in as many seasons towards the end of his career, this trend has become more common.

Harden’s former teammates Kevin Durant from the Brooklyn Nets and Oklahoma City Thunder have played for five teams, albeit with only two trades involved. Russell Westbrook, who played alongside Harden with the Thunder, Rockets, and Clippers, is now on his seventh team. While this can be attributed to the so-called “player empowerment” era, it is also true that teams are quicker to part ways with aging stars who command high salaries than in the past.

Having Harden return to finish his career with the hometown Clippers would have been a compelling narrative, certainly more appealing than him joining the Cavaliers, with no particular connection to the franchise other than its history of being a late-career destination for former MVPs like O’Neal and Derrick Rose.

Nonetheless, the distinction between Harden (and Westbrook) and Durant is that he is associated with a specific franchise. Regardless of how many teams Harden plays for, even if he secures a championship elsewhere, he will always be remembered as a member of the Houston Rockets. He holds the franchise records for three-pointers, assists, and triple-doubles, while ranking second in scoring behind fellow MVP Hakeem Olajuwon.

The eight full seasons Harden spent in Houston, which included an MVP award and two trips to the conference finals, will define his legacy. — Kevin Pelton

What might a deal between the Cavs and Clippers entail? What should LA seek in a trade?

Due to the apron rules, a trade involving Harden and Garland is the only transaction that is legally feasible. (Unless, of course, the Cavaliers are willing to completely overhaul their roster to come under the second apron, which is unlikely.)

Even after taking back less salary in the De’Andre Hunter trade, Cleveland remains $13.8 million over the second apron and cannot aggregate salaries or accept more money in a trade. Harden’s salary this season is $39,182,693, while Garland’s is $39,446,090.

In addition to the salary aspect, two conditions must be met for a trade to occur.

The first is that Harden must consent to the trade. Although he does not possess a true no-trade clause (having played eight years in the NBA and a minimum of four with the current team) like LeBron James and Damian Lillard, Harden has the authority to veto any deal. He has a one-year Bird provision because he signed a two-year contract last offseason that included an option. His $42.3 million salary for the next season is partially guaranteed for $13.3 million, even if the option is exercised in June. His salary will become fully guaranteed on July 11.

The second requirement is that Harden would need to adjust the 15% trade bonus in his contract. If he were traded, he would qualify for a $2.3 million bonus from the Clippers, which would be added to his $39.2 million salary. However, since Cleveland cannot take back more salary, the bonus would need to be reduced to $266,397.

For the Clippers, acquiring a 26-year-old former All-Star with two years remaining on his contract after this season would be a significant addition to the oldest roster in the NBA. — Bobby Marks

What can Harden contribute to a contender at 36?

One irony surrounding Harden’s trade request is that he is currently playing some of the best basketball of his career.

The 2017-18 NBA MVP is achieving his highest scoring average and usage rate since leaving Houston five years ago, and he is one of only four players this season — alongside Luka Doncic, Nikola Jokic, and Cade Cunningham — averaging at least 25 points and eight assists per game.

While he may not be as efficient from the field as he was at his peak, he compensates by drawing numerous fouls. Among high-usage stars, Harden boasts a higher true shooting percentage than Cunningham, Jalen Brunson, Jaylen Brown, and Devin Booker.

In essence, Harden remains a potent offensive force, with advanced statistics placing him in the same category as Kevin Durant — another veteran who continues to excel into his late 30s — regarding offensive impact.

The Clippers are scoring 120.4 points per 100 possessions with Harden on the floor, according to databallr, compared to just 109.5 without him; this represents the difference between a top-three offense and a bottom-three unit. When paired with another star, the results improve even further: Harden and Kawhi Leonard have an impressive 125.1 offensive rating together.

However, part of Harden’s legacy is the uncertainty surrounding whether his statistical resurgence will carry over into the playoffs. Last season, he managed only seven points in a Game 7 as the Clippers were eliminated; in 2023-24, he scored a total of 23 points in the Clippers’ last two losses; and in 2022-23, he recorded just nine points in a Game 7 as the 76ers were ousted.

Harden can still provide value to a contender in the coming months, particularly since he is generally available: he participated in 44 of the Clippers’ first 47 games this season before missing the last two. However, that contender must be prepared to rely on other scorers once the postseason arrives. — Zach Kram