NBA trade deadline: Executives and scouts reflect on the consequences of an eventful week
The NBA’s trade deadline was anticipated to be uneventful. Up until a week ago, there had been just a single trade throughout the season.
Then, a surge of activity occurred.
While there wasn’t a repeat of last season’s shocking event, when Luka Doncic was traded from the Dallas Mavericks to the Los Angeles Lakers late at night, there was significant movement throughout the league, much of it occurring in surprising manners.
As several prominent players — including Trae Young, Anthony Davis, Jaren Jackson Jr., James Harden, and Darius Garland — switched teams, three key themes emerged from this trade deadline’s events, starting with the ongoing situation surrounding Giannis Antetokounmpo, which is now likely to extend into the summer and possibly beyond.
Giannis remains a Buck … what’s next?
For the last few weeks, nearly every discussion with sources around the NBA revolved around one question:
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded?
However, despite the speculation regarding the two-time MVP changing teams this week, it was not a surprise to the league when the Milwaukee Bucks indicated midday Thursday that they were moving on to other matters.
“It isn’t unexpected that this was one of the outcomes,” an Eastern Conference executive told ESPN, “and this was likely a more than 50% probable outcome.”
This outcome implies that the ongoing discourse regarding Antetokounmpo’s future will persist into the summer and possibly beyond; he is eligible to sign a contract extension on October 1. Antetokounmpo added his own twist to the situation with a social media post shortly after the 3 p.m. ET deadline, featuring a well-known clip from “The Wolf of Wall Street,” where Leonardo DiCaprio’s character exclaims, “I’m not f—ing leaving!”
Yet, as one executive remarked later Thursday, “You know, in the movie, he left.”
In a similar narrative last season, the Phoenix Suns contemplated trading Kevin Durant at the deadline before ultimately moving him in the summer. The Boston Celtics did likewise with Paul Pierce in 2013, before trading him and Kevin Garnett to the Brooklyn Nets in a major deal a few months later.
play1:36Stephen A.: Giannis giving Bucks more control than they deserve
Stephen A. Smith states that Giannis Antetokounmpo is granting the Bucks more control than they merit regarding his trade discussions.
Despite some eagerness for Giannis Watch to conclude, the Bucks also received some commendation for their management of the situation.
“I believe they’re a winner for doing nothing,” an East scout commented. “They gathered all the information on the situation that they could, and they can pursue a deal later.”
Moreover, none of the leading contenders — the Golden State Warriors, Miami Heat, Minnesota Timberwolves, and New York Knicks — made any moves at the deadline that would hinder a potential Antetokounmpo blockbuster this offseason. Other teams could easily join the fray.
For Milwaukee, there was no opportunity cost for waiting, but there will likely be some difficult discussions ahead if Antetokounmpo wishes to participate in the final stretch of the season after recovering from his calf injury.
The Bucks will almost certainly be out of the playoff race by that time, and the team is attempting to optimize its draft position. (Antetokounmpo has experienced four different lower leg injuries in the past 18 months and has a prime chance to rehabilitate his body, especially with no international competitions scheduled this summer.)
Struggling teams are planning for the future
It is quite notable that during a trade deadline that saw significant names being traded, the only star who ended up on a current playoff team was Harden. Instead, the prevailing theme of the deadline involved the lottery-bound Utah Jazz (Jackson), Washington Wizards (Davis and Young), and Indiana Pacers (center Ivica Zubac) preparing to enhance their prospects for the 2026-27 season.
The deals involving the Wizards and Jazz were announced on Wednesday, while the transaction that sent Zubac from the LA Clippers to the Pacers in exchange for guard Bennedict Mathurin and two first-round picks stands out as one of the more intriguing in recent memory.
One of the two picks the Clippers will receive is the Pacers’ unprotected selection in 2029. The other pick has unique protections: If it falls within Nos. 5-9, it will go to the Clippers; if it lands in the top four or Nos. 10-30, it remains with Indiana, and the Clippers will instead receive an unprotected 2031 pick.
This led to an extensive discussion among several sources Thursday afternoon regarding what the Pacers would do for the remainder of this season.
Indiana could aim to maintain a position in the top three of the lottery odds, giving them a slightly better than 50% chance of retaining their pick. However, this comes with the risk of losing a mid-lottery pick in a deep draft.
play1:16Clippers trading center Ivica Zubac to Indiana Pacers
Shams Charania reports that the Los Angeles Clippers are trading center Ivica Zubac to the Indiana Pacers.
Alternatively, Indiana could focus on winning games. With Zubac, Pascal Siakam, Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, a skilled coach in Rick Carlisle, and a number of teams tanking alongside them in the standings, it is feasible.
In this scenario, the Pacers would aim to reach 10th in the lottery standings, where they would have a 100% chance of keeping the pick and an 11% chance of moving into the top four, a feat that has occurred in two of the past three years from the 10th position or lower (Atlanta from 10th in 2023, and Dallas from 11th this past year).
“If it were me, I would tank and secure the best possible odds for a high pick,” one East executive stated. “But if they opt to aim for 10, I believe they could.”
There was actually little debate about whether Indiana could reach 10th — it’s quite a reflection on the impending tank race, given the Pacers enter Friday’s game in Milwaukee with a 13-38 record. Instead, the discussion revolved around whether Indiana would choose to do so.
Regardless, acquiring Zubac came at a cost, especially when compared to what Washington surrendered to acquire Anthony Davis. Washington gave up what is likely to be the 30th pick this year, along with a top-20-protected pick from the Warriors in 2030.
The distinction is that Zubac is four years younger than Davis and will earn a total of $40 million over the next two seasons. Davis, on the other hand, is under contract for $120 million.
“I don’t fault Washington for the entry cost to acquire Trae and AD; it’s essentially nothing,” a Western Conference scout remarked. “The quality of the picks makes a significant difference. You can’t equate two picks for AD and two picks for Zubac and assume they are the same.”
One lottery-bound team that was unable to execute a hoped-for move was Memphis, which ultimately retained Ja Morant through the deadline.
While there was mild surprise across the league that Morant remained after weeks of speculation, the Grizzlies struggled to find a deal they felt confident about. (Miami was a rumored destination, but the Heat were not a viable option, according to sources.)
“I just never saw where [Morant] was going to end up,” a West executive commented.
Perhaps Morant can enhance his value over the final months of the season, but the Grizzlies will be strongly motivated to join the tanking teams — a group that is expected to expand to the point that several sources anticipate the league will soon consider adjustments to mitigate the annual race to the bottom.
“It’s going to be a brutal, ugly race,” an East executive stated. “So many talented players will be sidelined. … It’s going to be a narrative every single night.”
Top teams largely remained inactive
Among the 10 teams with the best records in the league entering Thursday, only one traded a first-round pick for a player: the Oklahoma City Thunder.
This is not to imply that the NBA’s leading teams were inactive this week. The Boston Celtics, Denver Nuggets, and Phoenix Suns all avoided the luxury tax. The Philadelphia 76ers and Toronto Raptors, who are just outside the league’s top 10 records, did the same.
Additionally, Minnesota saved considerable money by trading Mike Conley and a pick swap. (Conley, however, seems likely to return to Minnesota after being traded a second time and waived Thursday.)
Overall, teams at the top lacked trade assets, postponed potential Antetokounmpo deals, or faced the limitations imposed by the luxury tax and its aprons.
“These aprons are challenging to build around,” a West scout noted. “It means teams will need to negotiate more rigorously moving forward.”
Consequently, many of these top teams are heading into the postseason largely as they were assembled at the beginning of the season. With this inactivity comes questions about what will transpire when those teams begin to fall short of their stated objectives.
Cleveland, addressing concerns regarding Donovan Mitchell’s future beyond 2026-27, the final guaranteed year of his contract, acquired Harden.
The Conley trade saved Minnesota money as it worked diligently to position itself for the Antetokounmpo sweepstakes with limited assets, only to add a valuable depth player in Ayo Dosunmu from the Chicago Bulls. However, that deal meant parting ways with Rob Dillingham, the No. 8 pick in 2023 whom the Wolves traded up to select.
The Detroit Pistons, who acquired much-needed shooting in their deal for Kevin Huerter, are facing the restricted free agency of first-time All-Star center Jalen Duren. The Knicks are under significant pressure following the firing of coach Tom Thibodeau in the offseason, but their only move was essentially replacing the now-injured Miles McBride with New Orleans Pelicans guard Jose Alvarado.
These stakes could lead to an unpredictable race to the Finals. And with numerous trade sagas still unresolved, a potentially even more chaotic summer may be on the horizon.
